2016 AFL - Round 12

[freo_leo29]

Bit harsh on West Coast? Priddis a Brownlow winner and Gaff was a serious contender last year. Shuey is a quality midfielder and Nic Nat a top 3 ruck.

Don't think you could find a top 4 from Adelaide to match the players above.

the eagles midfield significantly drops after those 3, i have already mentioned that Nic Nat is the main upside
Whereas Crows have a solid midfield with plenty of guns rotating through as someone posted before, Priddis isn't very damaging and Gaff gets a lot of cheapies out the back, Shuey is the only one of those 3 that really penetrates defense with pace and long kicks

 

[Spads]

the eagles midfield significantly drops after those 3, i have already mentioned that Nic Nat is the main upside
Whereas Crows have a solid midfield with plenty of guns rotating through as someone posted before, Priddis isn't very damaging and Gaff gets a lot of cheapies out the back, Shuey is the only one of those 3 that really penetrates defense with pace and long kicks

2013 called - it wants it's opinion back.

 

[mookieb]

Could be a tough week on the "free money" multis. Not to be discouraged, kicking off with Richmond, WC, Carlton -8.5 and NM +30.5 on WH.

 

[freo_leo29]

$150 on Michael Walters 2+ @2.10 and $75 3+ @4.75 against brisbane
is 1.61 to kick 3 on sportsbet, we will probably play him forward more without Pav and he will be targetted more i would expect.
He is 4.70 to kick 5 and 2.55 to kick 4 on sportsbet too, so these odds are way over.

 

[freo_leo29]

2013 called - it wants it's opinion back.

what?

Their midfield is clearly the downside of their team, they have tried bringing in Jetta for some outside run but that has failed miserably, aswell as Redden who has been pretty lackluster. Hutchings, Masten and Duggan wouldn't get a game at other top 4 clubs and Sheed is out injured.

 

[sledbomber]

$150 on Michael Walters 2+ @2.10 and $75 3+ @4.75 against brisbane
is 1.61 to kick 3 on sportsbet, we will probably play him forward more without Pav and he will be targetted more i would expect.
He is 4.70 to kick 5 and 2.55 to kick 4 on sportsbet too, so these odds are way over.

I am with you on the 2+ option, not as much on as you though.

Also went for Redpath 2+ @ $1.95. He has done it 4/4 this year. On him for 3+ @ $4. He has done this 2/4.

And Tory Dickson 2+ @ $2.25. He has done it 5/7. Coming off a 0.1 performance last week however.

All these are on bet 365. Good luck lads.

 

[freo_leo29]

Aaron young 2+ @2.40 and 3+ @6 is overs too considering the year he is having
Not as much on him as Walters

I will tail that Redpath pick too, Port get destroyed by tall forwards usually

 

[Robo87]

Aaron young 2+ @2.40 and 3+ @6 is overs too considering the year he is having
Not as much on him as Walters

I will tail that Redpath pick too, Port get destroyed by tall forwards usually

Yes I'm on young also, was just about to mention him too!

 

[Atavistic]

Hard to pick a 5-leg multi this week but I've gone with:

Hawthorn, Richmond, Carlton, North and Brisbane@8.16.

 

[STANDBYHIRD12]

$150 on Michael Walters 2+ @2.10 and $75 3+ @4.75 against brisbane
is 1.61 to kick 3 on sportsbet, we will probably play him forward more without Pav and he will be targetted more i would expect.
He is 4.70 to kick 5 and 2.55 to kick 4 on sportsbet too, so these odds are way over.

Good find and tailed.

$150 on Walters 2 or more $40 on 3 or more

$30 on Young 2+, 3+

 

[Spads]

what?

Their midfield is clearly the downside of their team, they have tried bringing in Jetta for some outside run but that has failed miserably, aswell as Redden who has been pretty lackluster. Hutchings, Masten and Duggan wouldn't get a game at other top 4 clubs and Sheed is out injured.

More questioning the statements about an inside brownlow medallist mid and a best and fairest outside mid. Ridiculous.

 

[Watto_22]

Like the Walters, Redpath, Young goals bets.

Michael Walters...will probably play forward more without Pav and will be targeted more

Walters has kicked 2+ in his last 3 matches when Pav didn't play (R8 2016, R21 2015, R22 2014) so looks good


Also a cheeky disposal arb available on Jordan Lewis - 30+ with Sportsbet paying $2.60 and Tabtouch have under 29.5 at $1.85 for a 8% return

 

[come on oliver]

$150 on Michael Walters 2+ @2.10 and $75 3+ @4.75 against brisbane
is 1.61 to kick 3 on sportsbet, we will probably play him forward more without Pav and he will be targetted more i would expect.
He is 4.70 to kick 5 and 2.55 to kick 4 on sportsbet too, so these odds are way over.

Who is offering $2.10 for 2+ ?

 

[targett]

Who is offering $2.10 for 2+ ?

Bet365

 

[Boxhead182]

Smith 25+ at $2.20
Merrett 30+/Gunston 3 goals+ at $2.95

 

[STANDBYHIRD12]

$150 on Michael Walters 2+ @2.10 and $75 3+ @4.75 against brisbane
is 1.61 to kick 3 on sportsbet, we will probably play him forward more without Pav and he will be targetted more i would expect.
He is 4.70 to kick 5 and 2.55 to kick 4 on sportsbet too, so these odds are way over.

Can cash out the $250 outlay for $380 right now.

What do you guys think?

 

[TheCatsMan]

I am with you on the 2+ option, not as much on as you though.

Also went for Redpath 2+ @ $1.95. He has done it 4/4 this year. On him for 3+ @ $4. He has done this 2/4.

And Tory Dickson 2+ @ $2.25. He has done it 5/7. Coming off a 0.1 performance last week however.

All these are on bet 365. Good luck lads.

Walters in down to 1.36 for 2+ on Bet365

 

[CarterS]

Bias declared up front, but I like Brisbane 40+ at $9 on Ubet. Now I don't necessarily think it WILL happen but my philosophy has always been to take overs when I see them. Brisbane have really set themselves for this game and home form hasn't been horrible - never know what Freo will turn up. Free flowing game could easily blow out late if we actually kick straight.

 

[FallingLiefs]

Aaron young 2+ @2.40 and 3+ @6 is overs too considering the year he is having
Not as much on him as Walters

I will tail that Redpath pick too, Port get destroyed by tall forwards usually

avg SC points conceeded by position

i believe that is pre-round 10, post round 9 and neither Cloke, Cox, White or Watts, Hogan have done anything at all. JPK is really the only one to get hold of port for the last 2 months.

It doesn't look a game for key forwards with #2 and #4 facing off. also worth noting port is #3 for total score defence since the significant structural changes in ruck and defence.

 

[Watto_22]

thoughts on Zaharakis 30+ disposals @ $4.60 with TAB?
could hedge with Crownbet under 28.5 @ $1.70 for effectively odds of 1.24 that he won't get exactly 29 touches, but tempted to let it ride given that 30+ is at ~$2.4 elsewhere.
he's had 30+ 6/11 games this year, but concerned how Zaharakis got smashed last week by Barlow and kept to 12 touches vs North by Ben Jacobs.
what do you reckon?

 

[Bombers36]

thoughts on Zaharakis 30+ disposals @ $4.60 with TAB?
could hedge with Crownbet under 28.5 @ $1.70 for effectively odds of 1.24 that he won't get exactly 29 touches, but tempted to let it ride given that 30+ is at ~$2.4 elsewhere.
he's had 30+ 6/11 games this year, but concerned how Zaharakis got smashed last week by Barlow and kept to 12 touches vs North by Ben Jacobs.
what do you reckon?

I 'm backing him for 30+ also. Dont think the Hawks will bother too much tagging him (or anyone) at the start of the game, they'll rely on their own mids to get enough of the ball. If he starts racking it up maybe someone will go to him, but I think $2.40 is pretty decent value given hes done it in more than half his games this year.

 

[Infra Ted]

thoughts on Zaharakis 30+ disposals @ $4.60 with TAB?
could hedge with Crownbet under 28.5 @ $1.70 for effectively odds of 1.24 that he won't get exactly 29 touches, but tempted to let it ride given that 30+ is at ~$2.4 elsewhere.
he's had 30+ 6/11 games this year, but concerned how Zaharakis got smashed last week by Barlow and kept to 12 touches vs North by Ben Jacobs.
what do you reckon?

I'd let it ride. Hawks have a tendency to allow opposition players big numbers as they back in their system and rarely tag.

 

[mookieb]

Thoughts on the Carlton / Saints game?

Carlton is in way better form, have a good record against the Saints who are missing their best player and focal target, plus are facing a weak backline that has become even weaker with Fisher and Demspter both to miss. So Saints can be expected to have issues in both their forward and backline. Line at -7.5 looks very generous unless I am missing something?

 

[targett]

thoughts on Zaharakis 30+ disposals @ $4.60 with TAB?
could hedge with Crownbet under 28.5 @ $1.70 for effectively odds of 1.24 that he won't get exactly 29 touches, but tempted to let it ride given that 30+ is at ~$2.4 elsewhere.
he's had 30+ 6/11 games this year, but concerned how Zaharakis got smashed last week by Barlow and kept to 12 touches vs North by Ben Jacobs.
what do you reckon?

Last week Hawks vs Melb
Vince 36 pos
Jones 31
Tyson 32

Ive heard Zaharakis is carrying an injury

 

[FallingLiefs]

not one to punt on football but i like Josh Gibson tonight.

obviously 1 big game this season but his adjusted averages (ie lower than arithmetic) in 40+ pt wins are

DT: 112, min: 79
SC: 130, min: 102
Disposals: 26, min: 19.

Sample size: 4.

his worst game was the 3 tall forwards of Richmond kicking over half the team score. i don't see that happening tonight