AFL 2017 - AFL Round 1

[balmainforever]

Game|TAB|Sportsbet|William Hill|Ladbrokes|Bet365|CrownBet
\Carlton|$2.45|$2.63|$2.45|$2.50|$2.50|$2.50
\Richmond |$1.55|$1.49|$1.55|$1.53|$1.54|$1.52
\|line:**.5|line:12.5|line:10.5|line:12.5|line:10.5|line:11.5

Game|TAB|Sportsbet|William Hill|Ladbrokes|Bet365|CrownBet
\Collingwood|$2.75|$3.25|$3.05|$3.05|$3.00|$2.85
\West.Bulldogs |$1.45|$1.33|$1.38|$1.38|$1.40|$1.42
\|line:**.5|line:16.5|line:16.5|line:16.5|line:16.5|line:15.5

Game|TAB|Sportsbet|William Hill|Ladbrokes|Bet365|CrownBet
\St.Kilda |$1.90|$2.15|$1.95|$2.00|$2.02|$2.00
\Melbourne |$1.95|$1.70|$1.85|$1.80|$1.80|$1.80
\|line:**.5|line:3.5|line:1.5|line:2.5|line:2.5|line:2.5

Game|TAB|Sportsbet|William Hill|Ladbrokes|Bet365|CrownBet
\Sydney |$1.25|$1.24|$1.24|$1.25|$1.25|$1.26
\Port Adelaide |$4.10|$4.10|$4.00|$4.10|$4.00|$3.85
\|line:**.5|line:25.5|line:25.5|line:25.5|line:25.5|line:24.5

Game|TAB|Sportsbet|William Hill|Ladbrokes|Bet365|CrownBet
\Essendon|$2.60|$2.40|$2.65|$2.50|$2.50|$2.50
\Hawthorn |$1.50|$1.57|$1.47|$1.53|$1.54|$1.52
\|line:**.5|line:10.5|line:12.5|line:10.5|line:10.5|line:11.5

Game|TAB|Sportsbet|William Hill|Ladbrokes|Bet365|CrownBet
\Gold Coast|$1.36|$1.35|$1.35|$1.38|$1.35|$1.40
\Brisbane |$3.15|$3.21|$3.20|$3.05|$3.25|$2.95\|line:**.5|line:18.5|line:18.5|line:17.5|line:18.5|line:16.5

Game|TAB|Sportsbet|William Hill|Ladbrokes|Bet365|CrownBet
\North Melb.|$3.00|$2.96|$2.95|$2.95|$2.70|$2.75
\West Coast|$1.40|$1.40|$1.40|$1.40|$1.47|$1.45
\|line:**.5|line:15.5|line:15.5|line:16.5|line:13.5|line:13.5

Game|TAB|Sportsbet|William Hill|Ladbrokes|Bet365|CrownBet
\Adelaide |$2.25|$2.25|$2.20|$2.25|$2.20|$2.30
\G-W Sydney |$1.65|$1.65|$1.67|$1.65|$1.68|$1.60
\|line:**.5|line:6.5|line:6.5|line:7.5|line:6.5|line:8.5

Game|TAB|Sportsbet|William Hill|Ladbrokes|Bet365|CrownBet
\Fremantle |$2.75|$2.86|$2.75|$2.75|$2.80|$2.75
\Geelong |$1.45|$1.43|$1.44|$1.45|$1.44|$1.45\|line:**.5|line:14.5|line:14.5|line:14.5|line:14.5|line:14.5

ODDS AT 00.00 ON 2/3/17

 

[Russian Demon]

Like the look of Sydney to cover that line against Port with no forwards. Brisbane I think are massive overs against GC. And Hawks over Ess.

Not touching Melbourne until they shake the Etihad hoodoo. Might take St Kilda and buy the win.

 

[Keystone agony]

Adelaide and North Melbourne look like a war zone dow there.

Can eagles win away? Round 1 surely helps prepare for that

Gws if paying anywhere hear 1.70 surely too good for Adelaide even in Adelaide.

Hawks probably overs last i checked theyve been impressive this preseason whilst the bombers havnt but ill wait for the last game for the dons when they field a best 22 with a few games under them now.

 

[Keystone agony]

Like the look of Sydney to cover that line against Port with no forwards. Brisbane I think are massive overs against GC. And Hawks over Ess.

Not touching Melbourne until they shake the Etihad hoodoo. Might take St Kilda and buy the win.

Agree on most part except unsure which power forwards are missing? Monfries?

Westhoff, Eddy, Dixon as big fwds. Then Wingard, Neade ect as the small fwds

 

[Russian Demon]

Agree on most part except unsure which power forwards are missing? Monfries?

Westhoff, Eddy, Dixon as big fwds. Then Wingard, Neade ect as the small fwds

I thought most of them copped tribunal bans.... thought i read that somewhere.

Also liking west coast to cover the line against north... only 13.5

 

[Russian Demon]

Obviously will need to look at teams in a few weeks.

Another thought.... Richmond against an abysmal Carlton. Half of me says the line is pretty soft for Richmond.... but the rational half says don't touch anything where Richmond are the favourites and expecte d to win.

 

[mookieb]

Like the look of Sydney to cover that line against Port with no forwards. Brisbane I think are massive overs against GC. And Hawks over Ess.

Not touching Melbourne until they shake the Etihad hoodoo. Might take St Kilda and buy the win.

What's the theory on Brisbane? I'm expecting them to be just as shit as usual.

Was shocked by the Hawks line (-10.5). Is anyone else predicting a Hawks decline that severe that we are expected to sneak past Essendon? I think the Hawk additions should make the team stronger than last year and expecting some first up rust by some Essendon players. Hawks forward line is A grade vs a D grade Ess backline.

 

[Pea Nut]

I thought most of them copped tribunal bans.... thought i read that somewhere.

Also liking west coast to cover the line against north... only 13.5

Krakoeur rubbed out after high hit in JLT 1. Jarman Impey and Aidyn Johnson club imposed ban after doing the Harold Holt after getting drunk and crashing their car into other parked cars.

 

[Pea Nut]

What's the theory on Brisbane? I'm expecting them to be just as shit as usual.

Was shocked by the Hawks line (-10.5). Is anyone else predicting a Hawks decline that severe that we are expected to sneak past Essendon? I think the Hawk additions should make the team stronger than last year and expecting some first up rust by some Essendon players. Hawks forward line is A grade vs a D grade Ess backline.

Hard to take anything away from pre-season games, they do mean nothing, but Fagan could dramatically change things around at Brisbane. They have some real talent in that list that were seriously underperforming. And it is only the Suns that they are playing. Anything could happen, I wont be putting any money near it.

I think you are spot on about the Hawks v Bombers game. That is what I am liking the look of the most. The intensity will be a shock to the system of some of those returning players. Hawks ins are very good.

 

[Russian Demon]

Hard to take anything away from pre-season games, they do mean nothing, but Fagan could dramatically change things around at Brisbane. They have some real talent in that list that were seriously underperforming. And it is only the Suns that they are playing. Anything could happen, I wont be putting any money near it.

I think you are spot on about the Hawks v Bombers game. That is what I am liking the look of the most. The intensity will be a shock to the system of some of those returning players. Hawks ins are very good.

Agreed. Brisbane i just thought shouldn't be that long against GC (who i don't rate much chop). Wouldnt take them to win, only at the line.

Essendon Hawks.... yeah that line looks tasty. I was a little skeptical initially simply because Essendon are such an unknown quantity coming back, but one would think Hawthorn will dispatch them without any problems.

 

[Keystone agony]

What's the theory on Brisbane? I'm expecting them to be just as shit as usual.

Was shocked by the Hawks line (-10.5). Is anyone else predicting a Hawks decline that severe that we are expected to sneak past Essendon? I think the Hawk additions should make the team stronger than last year and expecting some first up rust by some Essendon players. Hawks forward line is A grade vs a D grade Ess backline.

D grade backline? 2 All australians one Chb and the other FB

Baguley one of the better small experienced defenders in the game. James Kelly another all australian who had a great year last. We also have Tippa who provides run and drive off half back. Mcgrath was the number 1 pick for a reason.

Hartleys year last year was huge conaidering the amount of inside 50s and Ambrose has become an excellent shutdown defender.

We are anything but D grade unfortunately hawks are probably a little too slippery for us until Mcgrath comes on then that will help alot with nullifying those issues.

On a different issue though i expect the round 1 heat to be too much for the returning players theyve already shown to be off the pace in PS.

The hawks also have some good INs. Jaegar and T.Mitchell cover the loss of S.Mitchell and Lewis. However people are forgetting the additiona of Roughead and Vickery to an already formidable forward line.

A Teia Miles or further up the field Gunston voids the loss of B.Hill aswell.

 

[Keystone agony]

Krakoeur rubbed out after high hit in JLT 1. Jarman Impey and Aidyn Johnson club imposed ban after doing the Harold Holt after getting drunk and crashing their car into other parked cars.

Barely lock best 22 for any of them TBH. Impey is but hes more backline isnt he? They still have Wingard, Young, Neade, Monfries(injury unsure?)

 

[Pea Nut]

Barely lock best 22 for any of them TBH. Impey is but hes more backline isnt he? They still have Wingard, Young, Neade, Monfries(injury unsure?)

Krakoeur going forward was part Port's plan to swing the magnets around. He is best 22 at the start of the year. Johnson obviously yet to play a game. Impey does play as a small forward, and is best 22, but would go out relatively quickly with poor performances. Monfries is depth I would think.

 

[mookieb]

D grade backline? 2 All australians one Chb and the other FB

Baguley one of the better small experienced defenders in the game. James Kelly another all australian who had a great year last. We also have Tippa who provides run and drive off half back. Mcgrath was the number 1 pick for a reason.

Hartleys year last year was huge conaidering the amount of inside 50s and Ambrose has become an excellent shutdown defender.

We are anything but D grade unfortunately hawks are probably a little too slippery for us until Mcgrath comes on then that will help alot with nullifying those issues.

On a different issue though i expect the round 1 heat to be too much for the returning players theyve already shown to be off the pace in PS.

The hawks also have some good INs. Jaegar and T.Mitchell cover the loss of S.Mitchell and Lewis. However people are forgetting the additiona of Roughead and Vickery to an already formidable forward line.

A Teia Miles or further up the field Gunston voids the loss of B.Hill aswell.

I'm assuming Hooker plays forward as speculated. One preview has a backline of:

Baguley Brown Dea
Gleeson Hurley Stanton

Now how accurate this is I don't know, but apart from Hurley seems to lack some star power and importantly run and carry. I think Stanton and Hurley will take a bit of time to come to grips with the pace of the game.

Structurally Hawthorn has improved significantly with Vickery and Roughead and Shoenmakers back. Expect Roughead to play through the middle at times and Gunston is being trialed in a Nick Reiwoldt type role on a wing. Hawks struggled massively in their forward line last year excluding small forwards. Vickery has impressed early.

Can't see Ess forwards kicking a winning score. Their gun forward Daniher (when on) gets a tough first up matchup in Frawley.

Typically Hawks crush the weaker teams. What's your view on end result?

 

[Keystone agony]

Krakoeur going forward was part Port's plan to swing the magnets around. He is best 22 at the start of the year. Johnson obviously yet to play a game. Impey does play as a small forward, and is best 22, but would go out relatively quickly with poor performances. Monfries is depth I would think.

Whether that Krakouer thing eventuated season proper or not im unsure and whether hes best 22 i dont know didnt have an excellent game by any means.

I think their starting forward 6 will be

Young - Westhoff - Wingard

Neade - Dixon - Eddy

Plenty of scoring power. The Krakouer, Impey outs arent big. D.Gray coming off the bench half forward line. Trengove may start forward aswell to relieve ruck duties and Ryder going forward aswell from the ruck.

 

[Keystone agony]

I'm assuming Hooker plays forward as speculated. One preview has a backline of:

Baguley Brown Dea
Gleeson Hurley Stanton

Now how accurate this is I don't know, but apart from Hurley seems to lack some star power and importantly run and carry. I think Stanton and Hurley will take a bit of time to come to grips with the pace of the game.

Structurally Hawthorn has improved significantly with Vickery and Roughead and Shoenmakers back. Expect Roughead to play through the middle at times and Gunston is being trialed in a Nick Reiwoldt type role on a wing. Hawks struggled massively in their forward line last year excluding small forwards. Vickery has impressed early.

Can't see Ess forwards kicking a winning score. Their gun forward Daniher (when on) gets a tough first up matchup in Frawley.

Typically Hawks crush the weaker teams. What's your view on end result?

Id be saying hawks by 4/5 goals right now

However our backline is for me

Baguley - Hartley - Ambrose

Kelly - Hurley - Mcgrath/Gleeson/Stanton/Tippa(last hbf spot)

 

[Sausage Legs]

Id be saying hawks by 4/5 goals right now

However our backline is for me

Baguley - Hartley - Ambrose

Kelly - Hurley - Mcgrath/Gleeson/Stanton/Tippa(last hbf spot)

Ambrose underrated. Will be a gun

 

[Keystone agony]

Morose underrated. Will be a gun

No bigger challenge than Gunston first up. Hes probably better on the less agile slightly bigger guys

 

[Sausage Legs]

No bigger challenge than Gunston first up. Hes probably better on the less agile slightly bigger guys

Agree. Last year when the ball was all going one way there weren't many key forwards that kicked bags against these troops. Was all crumber types. Held there own well.

 

[puntking]

saints vs dees at eithad im all over the saints

 

[langdon19]

Gws if paying anywhere hear 1.70 surely too good for Adelaide even in Adelaide.

Will only drop a game or 2 there this year i would think. Beat both Sydney and GWS at AO last year, Sloane back in i think.
GWS lost to Melbourne round 1 last year, not sold yet on their ability to travel and take on the top teams.

 

[Keystone agony]

Will only drop a game or 2 there this year i would think. Beat both Sydney and GWS at AO last year, Sloane back in i think.
GWS lost to Melbourne round 1 last year, not sold yet on their ability to travel and take on the top teams.

I continue to under estimate the crows. For me on paper theyre not a top 8 side and added with the likelyhood none of Crouch, ST or Sloane play round 1 or all are under done anyway i struggle to see how they will do well.

Their forward line is quality and has real scoring power.

They did just beat a full strength Geelong without Lever, L.Brown(played 40%), Cheney, B.Crouch, Sloane, S.Thompson, Seedsman, Betts, Jenkins, Mcgovern and without T.Lynch for a half as well.

Theyre midfield could well be Atkins, M.Crouch, Hampton, Mckay, Douglas, Wigg, Knight, Milera and for me thats struggling to compete in the SANFL as a midfield brigade let alone up against GWS round 1.

Their coach must be brilliant

 

[mookieb]

saints vs dees at eithad im all over the saints

Thought this game might be a real toss up (as the odds indicate), but now not growing really positive on the Saints. Finished last season 10W 4L vs Melbourne 6W 8L in the same timeframe. Included in this streak is an 8W 2L record at Etihad. While the Saints are very hard to beat at Etihad, Melbourne have been historically very poor at this venue. Last two games in 2016 at Etihad vs Dees the Saints won by around 6 goals both times.

Both teams recruited well (Saints - Stevens, Steele + Carlisle back) and Melbourne (Hibberd - injured and Lewis). So potentially 3 new inclusions to 1 for the first round.

I think Gawn dominating was a feature in many of the Dees wins last year. However, Hickey is very underrated and nullified Gawn's influence very well in the two matchups last year.

 

[nooblet]

Finished last season 10W 4L vs Melbourne 6W 8L in the same timeframe.

TIL the "end of the season" is 14 rounds

 

[mookieb]

TIL the "end of the season" is 14 rounds

Edit: Finished the last 14 games of last season at 10W 4L...