AFL 2017 - AFL Round 1

[mookieb]

West Coast's 1/5 record in Melbourne last season is a concern.There only win being against the lowly placed Carlton by 7 points.

Their Melbourne record is a concern but they lost to Hawks (MCG), Geelong (Simmonds), WB (Etihad) and Collingwood (MCG). The game against WB was very close so i'm expecting WC to play better at Etihad (2W 1L in 2015) than the MCG.

Flat track bullies.

 

[Zevon]

It's a myth that the Bulldogs perform best at Etihad. That is definitely not the case at all.

Last year we went 9-4 at Etihad Stadium.
Last year we went 4-0 at the MCG.

We also struggled in a few of our wins at Etihad, only just falling over the line in games against Richmond and Collingwood.

All four wins we had at the MCG were around 4-6 goal victories, two of them in finals.

The Bulldogs rely heavily on their defensive pressure, and that pressure can often lead to the opposition throwing the ball on their boot, pressuring them into a turnover. Those turnovers become even more prevalant when you add the outside elements of the weather. Playing under a closed roof makes it less likely of a pressured kick resulting in a turnover.

You do make a solid case, but if I was a Collingwood supporter I would feel much better about playing you at the G than Etihad.

Regardless of the venue, I'm liking the Pies to cause an upset or at least get within the 14.5 line. Can see the Doggies starting the season a touch slowly off the back of a drought-breaking premiership and the fact that the previous year's grand finalists always get a shorter preparation than everyone else (I rate Port half a chance against the Swans for much the same reason).

 

[Infra Ted]

Both teams should make the 8.

Big call. I doubt either side make it.

 

[10571z]

Wonder when betting companies will release their Afl promos!? Money back for quarter time leader and that

 

[Sausage Legs]

Double ur money on tigers into west coast straight out.

 

[10571z]

You do make a solid case, but if I was a Collingwood supporter I would feel much better about playing you at the G than Etihad.

Regardless of the venue, I'm liking the Pies to cause an upset or at least get within the 14.5 line. Can see the Doggies starting the season a touch slowly off the back of a drought-breaking premiership and the fact that the previous year's grand finalists always get a shorter preparation than everyone else (I rate Port half a chance against the Swans for much the same reason).

No Elliot and no Wells hurts our chances. We seem to match up well on the Bulldogs though. Depends which cloke comes out? Fired up vengeful one or a classic spud cloke?

 

[Keystone agony]

Surely 1.48 for dogs is overs

No Wells, Degoey, Elliott, Greenwood

Dogs going to have some ridiculous players missing from best 22 theyre that strong. Tom Campbell could still feature for round 1 aswell

Morris - Roberts - R.Murphy
Johanissen - Wood - M.Boyd
Picken - Bontempelli - T.Mclean
Dahlhaus - Cloke - C.Daniel
Stringer - Boyd - Dickson*
T.Campbell - Liberatore - Macrae

B: Hunter, Crameri, Suckling, Biggs, Jong, Wallis*, Dunkley, C.Smith, Roughead*

 

[Special Agent Utah]

Multi

Richmond > Sydney > Gold Coast > West Coast @ $3.40

Singles

Richmond > Carlton over 172.5 @ $1.95 Hasn't been under 175 in the last 8 round 1 games between these clubs (Pending Weather Obviously)

Richmond HT > FT @ $1.75

Bulldogs Wire to Wire @ $2.10

West Coast HT > FT @ $1.72

 

[Ablett2Garland]

1u: Sydney x Gold Coast x Saints @3.26

 

[langdon19]

Richmond > Carlton over 172.5 @ $1.95 Hasn't been under 175 in the last 8 round 1 games between these clubs (Pending Weather Obviously)

Would not trust either of these teams to kick a score

 

[targett]

Would not trust either of these teams to kick a score

Carltons leading goalkickers last season
Wright 22
Casbolt 18
Gibbs 18
Everett 17 delisted

With no real inclusions and no one really putting there hand up preseason i see carlton struggling to kick a score this year.

 

[Windy At Moorabbin]

Wonder when betting companies will release their Afl promos!? Money back for quarter time leader and that

BlueBet look to have the pick of the H2H promo's- Cash Back up to $50 if your team loses by 18pts or less.
Sportsbet's offer is weak compared to past years. 50% boost up to $50 in bonus bets if your team wins by 18pts or more.

 

[10571z]

BlueBet look to have the pick of the H2H promo's- Cash Back up to $50 if your team loses by 18pts or less.
Sportsbet's offer is weak compared to past years. 50% boost up to $50 in bonus bets if your team wins by 18pts or more.

Shame its for only the first round. TAB has cash back up to $20 if your team loses by less than $30 for the first 4 rounds. Good money builder.

 

[Watts4Dinner]

Double ur money on tigers into west coast straight out.

Just take the WC line and drop Richmond. You don't need that heartbreak so early in the season.

 

[targett]

Shame its for only the first round. TAB has cash back up to $20 if your team loses by less than $30 for the first 4 rounds. Good money builder.

Is that promo just for NSW residents only ?

 

[Watts4Dinner]

Carltons leading goalkickers last season
Wright 22
Casbolt 18
Gibbs 18
Everett 17 delisted

With no real inclusions and no one really putting there hand up preseason i see carlton struggling to kick a score this year.

Wow. That is awful.

 

[10571z]

Is that promo just for NSW residents only ?

Na looks like it's fine for victoria

 

[Keystone agony]

Heard something on radio about an agency doing something if a team gets to 60 points but lose, money back ? Maybe heard wrong

 

[Special Agent Utah]

Heard something on radio about an agency doing something if a team gets to 60 points but lose, money back ? Maybe heard wrong

Tab Touch have that going for the first four rounds. Good chance to have a free crack at a few games

 

[Special Agent Utah]

Crown bet have points pile up on Thursday night, If your team wins, then every point they win by will get you 100 ($1) Hopefully Tigers win easy. Nice little promo to boost your bonus tally

 

[JaxsonB]

Sydney seems to be the safest game this week - a team that should contend for top 4, at home, against an interstate team that at best will fight for the lower end of the 8. Of course, reflected in the odds.

Bulldogs also seem like good value with how they came back strongly against Gold Coast after a slow start in their JLT match, combined with Collingwood's injury woes. Speaking of JLT, Collingwood barely got over the line against a Richmond team that I can't recall played that well (Collingwood didn't even score in the last quarter) - on the flipside, Bulldogs got outdone by a pretty slick Gold Coast outfit in the first half, before putting in a solid effort in the third quarter and blowing them away in the last, turning a 35 point half time deficit and 27 point 3QT deficit into a 21 point win.

West Coast seems good, given that about 90% of AFL.com.au journalists have them in the top 4 and North Melbourne being this season's big sliders, but you just can't discount the shinboners. I think WC will get the job done but I'd be hesitant to bet on it unless I was happy to wear more risk than usual.

Gotta love the Ladbrokes blog though - backing Collingwood to beat the line (+15.5), and saying that Sydney isn't worth betting on as though multis aren't a thing.

 

[Jugada]

Sydney seems to be the safest game this week - a team that should contend for top 4, at home, against an interstate team that at best will fight for the lower end of the 8. Of course, reflected in the odds.

Bulldogs also seem like good value with how they came back strongly against Gold Coast after a slow start in their JLT match, combined with Collingwood's injury woes. Speaking of JLT, Collingwood barely got over the line against a Richmond team that I can't recall played that well (Collingwood didn't even score in the last quarter) - on the flipside, Bulldogs got outdone by a pretty slick Gold Coast outfit in the first half, before putting in a solid effort in the third quarter and blowing them away in the last, turning a 35 point half time deficit and 27 point 3QT deficit into a 21 point win.

West Coast seems good, given that about 90% of AFL.com.au journalists have them in the top 4 and North Melbourne being this season's big sliders, but you just can't discount the shinboners. I think WC will get the job done but I'd be hesitant to bet on it unless I was happy to wear more risk than usual.

Gotta love the Ladbrokes blog though - backing Collingwood to beat the line (+15.5), and saying that Sydney isn't worth betting on as though multis aren't a thing.

Lol putting something in a multi doesn't magically change it from -ev to +ev

 

[JaxsonB]

Lol putting something in a multi doesn't magically change it from -ev to +ev

Is it even -EV though in the first place? My impression was that they thought Sydney wasn't worth betting on because 1.20 is too short to be worthwhile, even if it's likely enough to come home that it is +EV (on the off chance that there's an upset). I mean, 365 has Sydney at 1.25, so they'd only have to win 4 out of 5 runs to break even - and I'd hazard that Sydney has at least an 80% chance of winning this one. Maybe I'm too optimistic on their chances, but you're looking at a team that should be in premiership calculations again this year, playing at home, against a team that will likely be competing for a low end spot in the 8 at best.

I'd be hesitant to drop a bucketload on such a small return too - even if it is +EV - just in case you do get the upset. However, adding a +EV 1.20/1.25 bet to a multi is a nice way to boost it without taking on significant risk.

 

[come on oliver]

Hawks $1.61
Happy to take that.

 

[Jugada]

Is it even -EV though in the first place? My impression was that they thought Sydney wasn't worth betting on because 1.20 is too short to be worthwhile, even if it's likely enough to come home that it is +EV (on the off chance that there's an upset). I mean, 365 has Sydney at 1.25, so they'd only have to win 4 out of 5 runs to break even - and I'd hazard that Sydney has at least an 80% chance of winning this one. Maybe I'm too optimistic on their chances, but you're looking at a team that should be in premiership calculations again this year, playing at home, against a team that will likely be competing for a low end spot in the 8 at best.

I'd be hesitant to drop a bucketload on such a small return too - even if it is +EV - just in case you do get the upset. However, adding a +EV 1.20/1.25 bet to a multi is a nice way to boost it without taking on significant risk.

Well they seem to think it is anyway and being able to multi it isn't really a factor in determining value. If you dont want to take the shorter odds H2H then you would just take the line because the value is pretty much the same.

Personally think its line ball for whether there is value there. Leaning towards Sydney but would want a few more points to back them