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AFL 2017 - AFL Round 13
- Thread starter balmainforever
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- Sep 17, 2014
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Well if that's wot u like can get brown 3 goals and Kangas to win at 4.50 on Betstar
lids2richo
Team Captain
Does this only apply to your first head to head bet or will it apply for multiple head to head gets on separate games?
benno_
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5U Roos @2 (SB - lead by 24 early pay out promo)
5.35U Saints @1.87 (B365)
Decent chance imo North lead by 24 early on but lose. Roos are the 5th ranked 1st quarter team but bottom 3-4 for every other quarter. In 3/11 games they've had a 24+ lead and lost, 3/11 up approximately 15-23 lead and lost, 2/11 lead by 24+ and nearly lost (there may be an error or something in these stats since i collected them quickly just eyeballing off the scoring worm, but I don't think there is).
When scaled correctly its basically @28.5 odds for Roo's to lead by 24 at any stage and lose (SB early pay out + B365 pay out if Saints win), which imo is pretty good value. With my staking I'll be risking 0.35U @28.5 for a potential 10U profit.
5.35U Saints @1.87 (B365)
Decent chance imo North lead by 24 early on but lose. Roos are the 5th ranked 1st quarter team but bottom 3-4 for every other quarter. In 3/11 games they've had a 24+ lead and lost, 3/11 up approximately 15-23 lead and lost, 2/11 lead by 24+ and nearly lost (there may be an error or something in these stats since i collected them quickly just eyeballing off the scoring worm, but I don't think there is).
When scaled correctly its basically @28.5 odds for Roo's to lead by 24 at any stage and lose (SB early pay out + B365 pay out if Saints win), which imo is pretty good value. With my staking I'll be risking 0.35U @28.5 for a potential 10U profit.
hedgedhog
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All your H2H bets in the round. You could even bet both sides and the promotion still applies to each of them.
benno_
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Is it only your first bet on the H2H market for a game? or does it count for all H2H bets in a game? I thought it was first bet only (like most usually are) but looking at the T&C's again now I can't actually see anything on it. I got on North last night with it and wanted to put a little more on, but didn't assuming it was only the first bet that counted with the special.
I'd advise against betting on both teams with SB though, I reckon it'd be a pretty quick way to get flagged and banned from them/the promo.
hedgedhog
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It counts for all H2H bets on the game. I agree, this promotion is mind-blowing in 2 aspects - 1. no limits, 2. all bets. It's a real first from Sportsbet and probably any other Australian bookmaker. bet365 have the same promotion with 30pts but no one really cares right now.
Just recently come across this thread. As a casual punter myself it's always a bit of fun checking out what bets you guys are on as some of you give some great insight. Thought i'd share what i'm thinking for this weekend as well rather than just lurking. So far i have just the 1 bet on...
Bullodgs -2.5 V Dees Quarter 4. @$1.86 Unibet
Just feel the Dogs will handle the pressure better if it's close, Dogs should run the game out easier with an extra few days rest after playing Thursday night Vs the Dees coming off a Monday game. Gawn still might not be available but even if he does i like this bet. See how we go!
Bullodgs -2.5 V Dees Quarter 4. @$1.86 Unibet
Just feel the Dogs will handle the pressure better if it's close, Dogs should run the game out easier with an extra few days rest after playing Thursday night Vs the Dees coming off a Monday game. Gawn still might not be available but even if he does i like this bet. See how we go!
benno_
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Line movement's SB quoted
WC/Cats +8.5 ➡ -3.5
North/Saints. +3.5 ➡ +1.5
Tigers/Swans. +3.5 ➡ +1.5
Port/Lions +58.5 ➡ +57.5
Suns/Blues. -12.5➡ -19.5
Demons/Dogs +18.5➡+10.5
WC/Cats +8.5 ➡ -3.5
North/Saints. +3.5 ➡ +1.5
Tigers/Swans. +3.5 ➡ +1.5
Port/Lions +58.5 ➡ +57.5
Suns/Blues. -12.5➡ -19.5
Demons/Dogs +18.5➡+10.5
- Banned
- #41
Anyone like the eagles?
I had a brief look on their board and their fans seem very pessimistic about this game.
However i think they are decent value at home.
It's hard to get a read on Geelong's form.
Played their last 3 games at home against 2 interstate teams and the bulldogs (Who aren't playing very well at the moment).
West coast have been pretty poor losing to Gold Coast and an Injury depleted GWS at home but I'd be really surprised if they don't come out breathing fire tomorrow.
I had a brief look on their board and their fans seem very pessimistic about this game.
However i think they are decent value at home.
It's hard to get a read on Geelong's form.
Played their last 3 games at home against 2 interstate teams and the bulldogs (Who aren't playing very well at the moment).
West coast have been pretty poor losing to Gold Coast and an Injury depleted GWS at home but I'd be really surprised if they don't come out breathing fire tomorrow.
hedgedhog
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Kennedy makes up half of their team's goals. I can see why they're pessimistic.
WB vs Melb is an interesting game. Has anyone come to the impression to WB are just a good average side? They are 6 and 5 for the season and are floating through games virtually always giving up a start and then trying to work there way into the game. They can't kick goals and their only comprehensive win was against the Saints who have been terrible of late.
Let's face it they were the same during the regular season last year never seeming to be a legitimate threat until their amazing finals series run.
I may well be biased as the last two times I backed them I have had to sit fuming watching Lin Jong in the ruck vs Rich and last game against the Swans they were playing English who got shoved out of the way in the ruck every single time and tallied 1 mark and 0 kicks. Painful.
Melbourne also seem overrated without Gawn and Hogan. They are 4W and 5L with Gawn out and their wins against GC and Coll had them down at times by 6 and 4 goals respectively. Coll especially were ripe for the picking with Elliott, Wells and Goldsack out and a short break back from Perth.
So i'm thinking a WB win coming off a belting and a few potential inclusions such as Boyd.
Let's face it they were the same during the regular season last year never seeming to be a legitimate threat until their amazing finals series run.
I may well be biased as the last two times I backed them I have had to sit fuming watching Lin Jong in the ruck vs Rich and last game against the Swans they were playing English who got shoved out of the way in the ruck every single time and tallied 1 mark and 0 kicks. Painful.
Melbourne also seem overrated without Gawn and Hogan. They are 4W and 5L with Gawn out and their wins against GC and Coll had them down at times by 6 and 4 goals respectively. Coll especially were ripe for the picking with Elliott, Wells and Goldsack out and a short break back from Perth.
So i'm thinking a WB win coming off a belting and a few potential inclusions such as Boyd.
This is another intriguing game because Geel can perform very well against good teams and switch off against weaker teams. They could win this game comfortably if they are "on" because WC have subtly opted for youth with Hill, Masten and Wellingham all experienced campaigners emergencies for the game and some youth on the bench.
SM
Bigfooty Legend
Anyone like the unders tomorrow night? Both teams have key forwards out who would contribute a lot to scoring..
Boxhead182
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- Apr 17, 2014
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$350 on Geelong at $1.75 SB
