AFL 2017 - AFL Round 17

[freo_leo29]

There's a few WC / Freo supporters on this board (Langdon, Benno, free at last etc). Anyone got any feedback on the upcoming derby?

I'm leaning strongly toward WC at the line (i'm on at -10.5 and -12.5). Freo had lost 5 in a row (before the NM win) and think they have been flattered a bit in their last 2 games - kicked 12.8 vs Saints including an incredible 6 from Walters. Kicked 13.8 vs NM including a match winning 4 from a guy who has never played forward before. Got 4 or 5 rookies playing.

WC get Kennedy back and can switch McGovern back to defense. Lost a few games of late but against top 8 contenders in Melb and Port. Beat Geel comfortably at home of late.

The dangers are Walters and Fyfe, but Shepherd and Hutchings seem like likely and potentially favourable shutdown jobs.

Feels like a flat track bully 4+ goal margin to me.

I'm on at -10.5 and -12.5.

We have gone in super small with our only tall being Cox a 5th gamer and Kersten as a 192cm player named on the bench, the Eagles have gone in super tall so should mark just about everything thats bombed to Mcgovern/Yeo/Barrass

Its a battle of speed vs height IMO and a no bet for me

 

[Spacedog]

Just be careful putting multiple units on DT (Dream Team) bets, especially if you're winning a decent amount of them like you seem to be lately. I did pretty well on them last year and then started this year winning something like 21/25 in the first handful of rounds. Quickly got limited, then continued to profit and got limited further by round 7. Now my account is flagged and any time I place a DT bet it takes forever to get a small stake accepted and they either change the line or odds just because I bet on it lol. So yeah just be careful because its not very fun getting banned from DT bets lol.

Thats shit mate, especially because crown have a monopoly on it

 

[free at last]

Don't know if it's just me being bias lol, but I'm pretty confident Eagles win fairly comfortably. Pretty similar to most of your points, Kennedy is a massive in for the forward line and allowing Gov go down back is huge too. imo I see the Dockers forward line and back line struggling, but the midfield battle will be interesting especially with some of the speed Freo have, Hutchings etc have been good lately in shut down roles though. Even if Freo win the midfield battle I still think Eagles should win quite comfortably.

If we run the ball & not bomb it like we did earlier in the year,we're a shot....It'll be interesting to see if WC name Lycett,vardy & Petrie in the final team.

 

[Profphat]

Don't know if it's just me being bias lol, but I'm pretty confident Eagles win fairly comfortably. Pretty similar to most of your points, Kennedy is a massive in for the forward line and allowing Gov go down back is huge too. imo I see the Dockers forward line and back line struggling, but the midfield battle will be interesting especially with some of the speed Freo have, Hutchings etc have been good lately in shut down roles though. Even if Freo win the midfield battle I still think Eagles should win quite comfortably.

Agree.
Kennedy back makes a great difference.
I wonder if Hutchings will go to Walters. Can't see freo scoring high nor stopping Kennedy /darling.
Can someone confirm sportsbet payout the 24 points in WA? I was going to place a few bets last week, but a small disclaimer excludes WA residents.

 

[freo_leo29]

Agree.
Kennedy back makes a great difference.
I wonder if Hutchings will go to Walters. Can't see freo scoring high nor stopping Kennedy /darling.
Can someone confirm sportsbet payout the 24 points in WA? I was going to place a few bets last week, but a small disclaimer excludes WA residents.

They pay me out and Bet365 also do

 

[LukeParkerno1]

For a derby I don't mind Freo's odds but jeez I hate betting on derby's, and I'm far from convinced on WC at the moment.

 

[banta]

Anyone hit the disposal H2H and line market? Been pretty accurate last few weeks (albeit at times luckily just). Saw Heppel +0.5 against Steven (who I think will be tagged by Bird). The total line is 53.5 which I think they'll go under comfortably. Both haven't been getting huge numbers (Steven in a blowout last week the only time recently for him).
Thoughts? Anyone like any others in that type of market this weekend?

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Anyone hit the disposal H2H and line market? Been pretty accurate last few weeks (albeit at times luckily just). Saw Heppel +0.5 against Steven (who I think will be tagged by Bird). The total line is 53.5 which I think they'll go under comfortably. Both haven't been getting huge numbers (Steven in a blowout last week the only time recently for him).
Thoughts? Anyone like any others in that type of market this weekend?

Would you tag Steven or Jack Billings though? I thought you may just go head to head on Steven, maybe Heppell or whoever.

 

[Sabbathen]

Read something the other day that said player markets are skewed in the bookmakers favour more than any other market in afl betting. Head to head and lines over $1.90 were the best. Didn't cite any sources though so take it with a grain of salt.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Read something the other day that said player markets are skewed in the bookmakers favour more than any other market in afl betting. Head to head and lines over $1.90 were the best. Didn't cite any sources though so take it with a grain of salt.

Yeah I agree, I rarely bother with player markets unless it is GF day. Take the lines and hope you get a few of them. Alternatively just take the head to head.

 

[targett]

major tippers/Big fish only bet H2H and Line

 

[demon_fanatic]

Do you guys think the down the centre up down game will play out tonight or both teams be so concerned about it.. that'll it will turn into a 70-80 type score ??

 

[SM]

Thats shit mate, especially because crown have a monopoly on it

SB have it too.

 

[Spacedog]

SB have it too.

yeah but sportsbet don't give you as many good options, for example they haven't had rory sloane for ages but crown have kept having him.

 

[SM]

yeah but sportsbet don't give you as many good options, for example they haven't had rory sloane for ages but crown have kept having him.

Yeah fair point. Any good markets for tonight? I haven't looked yet at work.

 

[Spacedog]

Yeah fair point. Any good markets for tonight? I haven't looked yet at work.

I'm not really liking anything for tonight besides the saints to win, but get on stef martin over 106.5 on sunday. No archie smith and nankervis concedes the most points

 

[happy punter]

Bombers over Saints @ 2.05 (1 unit)

 

[targett]

Bombers over Saints @ 2.05 (1 unit)

In to the Essendon side from the last time they met comes the likes of Heppell,Zaharakas,Hurley,Colyer,Mcgrath,Hooker,Green and out goes some very ordinary talent.

 

[tangolikelama]

$20 on Saint 1-39/Over 184.5/Hooker 3+/Ross 30+ @25

 

[XXRL]

Had a nibble at Jeremy McGovern for the Ross Glendinning Medal at $23 on TABtouch with their 25% bonus winnings promo (up to $50).

 

[ontheroad]

Saints vs Bombers tonight
Either team under 24.5 - 1u @1.84 (Lads)

 

[ontheroad]

AFL multi
ESS/Gee/GC/WB/WCE .25u @ $12.50 (lads)

 

[I Lost My Keays]

Gresham first goal scorer at $16 (powered)

Roberton most DT points group 2 at $5

 

[The_Big_Ship]

Ess +7.5
Haw
Port
GC 1-39
Syd o 15.5
Adel 1-39
Rich
WB -14.5
Fre +34.5

@ 320.64

 

[sneak]

Dylan roberton over 89 dt