hedgedhog
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They didn't. It started out +9.5 before sharps moved it to -2.5.
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AFL 2017 - AFL Round 19
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They didn't. It started out +9.5 before sharps moved it to -2.5.
Rocky Straight
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- #27
Rocky Straight
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how did they get Brisbane so wrong though, or Richmond, Sydney, Hawthorn etc etc.
Sabbathen
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The Pies line had moved massively before Mitchell was announced as an out. Whether astute punters knew that earlier or not, one can only assume.
Same goes with the Brisbane line, it moved quite significantly from open to close.
You need to remember the bookies just set the line at what they think it will do at the start of the week, it's the big money that comes after that shifts the odds and lines.
Same goes with the Brisbane line, it moved quite significantly from open to close.
You need to remember the bookies just set the line at what they think it will do at the start of the week, it's the big money that comes after that shifts the odds and lines.
hedgedhog
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Wrong, line closed at +4.5 already by the morning of Friday. Action was both ways agreed but it hit -4.5 at one stage on Pinnacle. Gary Ablett might be worth 6pts but Sam Mitchell sure as hell isn't.
Other line move was Hawthorn from evens to -4.5. It's been 3-4 straight weeks where the line has just moved against Freo, so I don't understand why the line keeps being set that way on their games.
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hedgedhog
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Fact of the matter is that AFL lines are very soft. Probably due to the amount of mug punters in this country and overseas guys finding it very hard to get set in our markets.
Also the lines aren't very wrong. AFL as a sport has huge variance due to 6 & 1pt scores unlike any other sport in the world.
What do you mean by offshore punters finding it very hard to get set in our market?
Is it just my Swans supporting paranoia or do the Hawks seem overs? Last team to beat us, playing some good footy. Clarkson seems to know how to beat Horse in the box.
Lots of our games are close too so surely the +14.5 looks good. But yeah I'm clueless when it comes to Sydney usually.
Lots of our games are close too so surely the +14.5 looks good. But yeah I'm clueless when it comes to Sydney usually.
hedgedhog
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It's hard for anyone offshore to get decent size into AFL markets. The only outlet they have is Pinnacle (and brokers) to get decent size done and maybe a couple of the Asian books. This means it's very difficult for them to keep our AFL lines tight, only Aussie residents can really influence the market to a large extent.
The only global book that lets decent sized bets on AFL is bet365.
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North are gathering support now +14.5 pinnacle from +16.5 opening.
Can still get +16.5 if you shop around.
Can still get +16.5 if you shop around.
When's Cyril back?
Probably next year
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Theres really nothing I like this week besides the Port line, and Essendon. I'll chuck some money on Essendon 40+ as well.
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listed as indefinite - I would be surprised if he played again this year considering how well our kids seem to be doing. Word is him, Birchall and Frawley will be put in cotton wool until pre season.
Swans are most certainly flying however the 15 ish Point start Hawks is big
There's just too much history of Clarkson
Working over the swans game plan
Even when he has an inferior side like this one the loses are still close
Hawks have played some top sides since the bye and lost only once by less than a kick
Pretty confident this game is still alive well into the last qrt and low scoring
There's just too much history of Clarkson
Working over the swans game plan
Even when he has an inferior side like this one the loses are still close
Hawks have played some top sides since the bye and lost only once by less than a kick
Pretty confident this game is still alive well into the last qrt and low scoring
Happy with -34.5 . The loss of Walters is big and i think GWS are looking for a solid win with Freo being the lowest ranked side they will play in remaining 5 rounds.Percentage booster.
Yeah I think this is the time the weaker sides out of contention start getting spanked. Freo are showing signs of tailing off badly plus the loss of Walters from the worst forward line in the league. I also consider it a bad sign for Freo getting spanked by 50 at home and then going on an unwinnable game on the road.
I think GWS make a statement here because it's virtually season over if they can't put something together now.
Rocky Straight
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+5.5 to +4.5 to -2.5 all within 30mins on Friday at pinnacle all off the back of Mitchell not playing.
never said Mitchell was worth 6pts, market always overreacts to injuries and deemed him worth that many.
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Rocky Straight
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mega confused by this, why would someone off shore be better at modelling AFL than an Aussie and why would having only pinnacle have any affect on their ability to shape the market?
the market prior to game day is sadly Pinnacle, whatever happens there the market will follow. rightly or wrongly, anyone can move a pinnacle line.
it maybe a mug market but opening lines have shown they are just as good at predicting outcomes as closing lines.
Rocky Straight
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what if Melbourne kick with the wind first quarter?
Rocky Straight
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would be weary of paying much attention to small line moves early in the week, as i said in a previous post, doesn't take much to move these lines.
some moron moved STK +27.5 to +22.5 early last week vs Syd before it bounced straight back and then went further on game day.
given North's tactics of late I wouldn't be rushing to back them pre teams coming out either
