AFL 2017 - AFL Round 19

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How did the bookies get that line so right for the Eagles Magpies game? Was very close to being a 2pt win as predicted. Do u think in the simulations they played over and over to set the odds they also forsaw a 10minute capitulation of epic proportions?
how did they get Brisbane so wrong though, or Richmond, Sydney, Hawthorn etc etc.
 

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The Pies line had moved massively before Mitchell was announced as an out. Whether astute punters knew that earlier or not, one can only assume.
Same goes with the Brisbane line, it moved quite significantly from open to close.
You need to remember the bookies just set the line at what they think it will do at the start of the week, it's the big money that comes after that shifts the odds and lines.
 
Sam Mitchell moved it to -2.5.

action was both ways game day

Wrong, line closed at +4.5 already by the morning of Friday. Action was both ways agreed but it hit -4.5 at one stage on Pinnacle. Gary Ablett might be worth 6pts but Sam Mitchell sure as hell isn't.

The Pies line had moved massively before Mitchell was announced as an out. Whether astute punters knew that earlier or not, one can only assume.
Same goes with the Brisbane line, it moved quite significantly from open to close.
You need to remember the bookies just set the line at what they think it will do at the start of the week, it's the big money that comes after that shifts the odds and lines.

Other line move was Hawthorn from evens to -4.5. It's been 3-4 straight weeks where the line has just moved against Freo, so I don't understand why the line keeps being set that way on their games.
 
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how did they get Brisbane so wrong though, or Richmond, Sydney, Hawthorn etc etc.

Fact of the matter is that AFL lines are very soft. Probably due to the amount of mug punters in this country and overseas guys finding it very hard to get set in our markets.

Also the lines aren't very wrong. AFL as a sport has huge variance due to 6 & 1pt scores unlike any other sport in the world.
 
Fact of the matter is that AFL lines are very soft. Probably due to the amount of mug punters in this country and overseas guys finding it very hard to get set in our markets.

Also the lines aren't very wrong. AFL as a sport has huge variance due to 6 & 1pt scores unlike any other sport in the world.

What do you mean by offshore punters finding it very hard to get set in our market?
 
Is it just my Swans supporting paranoia or do the Hawks seem overs? Last team to beat us, playing some good footy. Clarkson seems to know how to beat Horse in the box.

Lots of our games are close too so surely the +14.5 looks good. But yeah I'm clueless when it comes to Sydney usually.
 
What do you mean by offshore punters finding it very hard to get set in our market?

It's hard for anyone offshore to get decent size into AFL markets. The only outlet they have is Pinnacle (and brokers) to get decent size done and maybe a couple of the Asian books. This means it's very difficult for them to keep our AFL lines tight, only Aussie residents can really influence the market to a large extent.

The only global book that lets decent sized bets on AFL is bet365.
 
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Is it just my Swans supporting paranoia or do the Hawks seem overs? Last team to beat us, playing some good footy. Clarkson seems to know how to beat Horse in the box.

Lots of our games are close too so surely the +14.5 looks good. But yeah I'm clueless when it comes to Sydney usually.

Completely with you, the Hawks are overs. I wouldn't say I'm clueless when it comes to the Swans, I can *usually* take my supporter's hat off and put my punter's hat on. But it would definitely be nice to hear a non-Swans supporter's opinion on this.
 
Is it just my Swans supporting paranoia or do the Hawks seem overs? Last team to beat us, playing some good footy. Clarkson seems to know how to beat Horse in the box.

Lots of our games are close too so surely the +14.5 looks good. But yeah I'm clueless when it comes to Sydney usually.
When's Cyril back?
 

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Swans are most certainly flying however the 15 ish Point start Hawks is big

There's just too much history of Clarkson
Working over the swans game plan
Even when he has an inferior side like this one the loses are still close

Hawks have played some top sides since the bye and lost only once by less than a kick
Pretty confident this game is still alive well into the last qrt and low scoring
 
History repeats itself with the Freo line. 34.5 after Freo's loss to Hawthorn, but in to 30.5 after GWS's loss and Toby suspension, now back out to 40.5. This might finally be the week they cover the handicap though.
 
History repeats itself with the Freo line. 34.5 after Freo's loss to Hawthorn, but in to 30.5 after GWS's loss and Toby suspension, now back out to 40.5. This might finally be the week they cover the handicap though.
Happy with -34.5 . The loss of Walters is big and i think GWS are looking for a solid win with Freo being the lowest ranked side they will play in remaining 5 rounds.Percentage booster.
 
Happy with -34.5 . The loss of Walters is big and i think GWS are looking for a solid win with Freo being the lowest ranked side they will play in remaining 5 rounds.Percentage booster.
Yeah I think this is the time the weaker sides out of contention start getting spanked. Freo are showing signs of tailing off badly plus the loss of Walters from the worst forward line in the league. I also consider it a bad sign for Freo getting spanked by 50 at home and then going on an unwinnable game on the road.

I think GWS make a statement here because it's virtually season over if they can't put something together now.
 
Wrong, line closed at +4.5 already by the morning of Friday. Action was both ways agreed but it hit -4.5 at one stage on Pinnacle. Gary Ablett might be worth 6pts but Sam Mitchell sure as hell isn't.
+5.5 to +4.5 to -2.5 all within 30mins on Friday at pinnacle all off the back of Mitchell not playing.
never said Mitchell was worth 6pts, market always overreacts to injuries and deemed him worth that many.
 
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It's hard for anyone offshore to get decent size into AFL markets. The only outlet they have is Pinnacle (and brokers) to get decent size done and maybe a couple of the Asian books. This means it's very difficult for them to keep our AFL lines tight, only Aussie residents can really influence the market to a large extent.

The only global book that lets decent sized bets on AFL is bet365.
mega confused by this, why would someone off shore be better at modelling AFL than an Aussie and why would having only pinnacle have any affect on their ability to shape the market?
the market prior to game day is sadly Pinnacle, whatever happens there the market will follow. rightly or wrongly, anyone can move a pinnacle line.

it maybe a mug market but opening lines have shown they are just as good at predicting outcomes as closing lines.
 
North are gathering support now +14.5 pinnacle from +16.5 opening.
Can still get +16.5 if you shop around.
would be weary of paying much attention to small line moves early in the week, as i said in a previous post, doesn't take much to move these lines.
some moron moved STK +27.5 to +22.5 early last week vs Syd before it bounced straight back and then went further on game day.
given North's tactics of late I wouldn't be rushing to back them pre teams coming out either
 

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AFL 2017 - AFL Round 19

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