AFL 2017 - AFL Round 21

[hedgedhog]

Rocket's gone and the line has gone out a couple more points to -6.5. A new coach normally sees a very good performance the following week.

I have observed this phenomenon in NBA (about 75-80% line covered after a coach is sacked) so I assume something similar in AFL? Though coaches are probably not sacked as often as coaches in the NBA so I'm not sure I'll find any meaningful data on this.

 

[rOdGe]

Speaking of Rocket being gone, Ladbrokes have Brad Scott @$10 as next coach of Gold Coast. Reckon that's good value as he's around $4 everywhere else.

 

[mookieb]

I have observed this phenomenon in NBA (about 75-80% line covered after a coach is sacked) so I assume something similar in AFL? Though coaches are probably not sacked as often as coaches in the NBA so I'm not sure I'll find any meaningful data on this.

I don't have any stats but I think it's similar for AFL as well. I assume it's psychology - a team is performing badly and going through the motions and then all of a sudden things get serious and the effort gets turned up.

Lines at -7.5 and if it keeps going GC would be an attractive bet especially if they get some of Witts, Lyons, Matera, Swallow back.

 

[Djoker]

Doggies Giants points pileup

 

[demon_fanatic]

Doggies Giants points pileup

Hmmm will be close either way you'd think

 

[Rocky Straight]

Rocket's gone and the line has gone out a couple more points to -6.5. A new coach normally sees a very good performance the following week.

zero to do with Rocket going, Tom Lynch injury news is what caused the move.

I don't have any stats but I think it's similar for AFL as well. I assume it's psychology - a team is performing badly and going through the motions and then all of a sudden things get serious and the effort gets turned up.

since betting data has been available teams have performed quite well ATS following a coach being sacked/stepping down, last check was 13-2 or so since early 2000s.

Don't think performance changes too much but fair to say there would be a fair bit of market value about them.

 

[targett]

I don't have any stats but I think it's similar for AFL as well. I assume it's psychology - a team is performing badly and going through the motions and then all of a sudden things get serious and the effort gets turned up.

Lines at -7.5 and if it keeps going GC would be an attractive bet especially if they get some of Witts, Lyons, Matera, Swallow back.

Ablett looks like he'll miss

 

[Djoker]

Hmmm will be close either way you'd think

Defintely, if there was no promo and I had to bet I'd be on either team under 24.5 @ 1.8 but I'll combine it with the betblast for a free shot at a bonus

Speaking of lads betblast is giants $2.20

 

[puntking]

Doggies Giants points pileup

either team under 24

 

[hedgedhog]

I don't have any stats but I think it's similar for AFL as well. I assume it's psychology - a team is performing badly and going through the motions and then all of a sudden things get serious and the effort gets turned up.

Lines at -7.5 and if it keeps going GC would be an attractive bet especially if they get some of Witts, Lyons, Matera, Swallow back.

No Ablett makes this trickier.

 

[AFLFootyChick]

No Ablett makes this trickier.

The Suns are a mess. The coaching debacle, their current injuries, and no Ablett as the final nail in the coffin. Sportsbet are showing $1.63 for Brisbane. Get on it - NOW! Those young Lions will pounce on the setting Suns!

 

[demon_fanatic]

Only worrry is a lot of suns coming back in apparantly and no lynch could make the fwd line unpredictable but you'd think
Bris win

 

[mookieb]

No Hawkins No Selwood No Duncan ....No chance

Line has narrowed in slightly to -5.5 when I thought it would be going the other way.

Apart from the whole Selwood, Duncan, Hawkins missing thing Richmond's in significantly better form and I expect might benefit if there is a shower or two with their wet weather form. Apart from the game being at Skilled can't see any reason to be backing the Cats unless i'm missing something?

 

[free at last]

Anyone a tad interested in freo at +53.5 pts? I'm seeing a swans win of more like 30-40pts....

 

[jimboslice]

I need help... 8 legs to go (here are the remaining let's) $5.45 into $10,000
Would you wait it out? Or cash out after a certain game? Or now? Haha

 

[Russian Demon]

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I need help... 8 legs to go (here are the remaining let's) $5.45 into $10,000
Would you wait it out? Or cash out after a certain game? Or now? Haha

Sure as hell wouldn't be relying on Melbourne to beat St Kilda.

 

[demon_fanatic]

Sure as hell wouldn't be relying on Melbourne to beat St Kilda.

Yeh love the odds on saints we look tired and they'll loook to run us hard

 

[Sketi]

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I need help... 8 legs to go (here are the remaining let's) $5.45 into $10,000
Would you wait it out? Or cash out after a certain game? Or now? Haha

Why not cash it out and place another bet/s with some of your winnings? $5 into $240 is pretty good.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

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I need help... 8 legs to go (here are the remaining let's) $5.45 into $10,000
Would you wait it out? Or cash out after a certain game? Or now? Haha

I'd take the $240, if you've only put $5 on it then why not. It's cash for the weekend.

 

[Gift]

If you cash out, all the legs will win, if you dont the multi will die on a short leg. Its how long odds multis work haha

 

[ontheroad]

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I need help... 8 legs to go (here are the remaining let's) $5.45 into $10,000
Would you wait it out? Or cash out after a certain game? Or now? Haha

Depends on your bookie but if it's with someone like Bet365 you can usually cash out part of your stake/winnings. Maybe cash out 75% or 50% and let the rest ride. Best of both worlds. Good luck.

 

[targett]

I'd take the $240, if you've only put $5 on it then why not. It's cash for the weekend.

 

[wizzard400]

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I need help... 8 legs to go (here are the remaining let's) $5.45 into $10,000
Would you wait it out? Or cash out after a certain game? Or now? Haha

Cash out now, $5 into $240 is a great return. I would take that and put some of it on individual bets this weekend if it were me.

Plus there's no way Newcastle will beat Spurs on opening weekend

 

[Keystone agony]

Hit Lobb (-1) disposals hard vs Jack Redpath (Pointsbet)

 

[happy punter]

Bulldogs over Giants @ 2.33 (2 units)