AFL 2017 - AFL Round 4

[happy punter]

Magpies -5.5 over Saints (1 unit)

 

[NutnButAPnut]

Pendles under 29.5 @1.80 topsport
Pendles 30+ @2.65 bet365

 

[Oraz]

2u St Kilda +4.5 @ 1.92

 

[Vhaluus]

Tipping the Saints with little confidence.
Elliot is a huge in for Collingwood.
I cant see this game turning into a shootout as I think Collingwood will put more pressure on the Saints than Brisbane last week.

Agree with the Richmond line. They should beat Brisbane easily. Wonder why the line is relatively low?

Richmond historically have not traveled well.

 

[X_box_X]

Pendles under 29.5 @1.80 topsport
Pendles 30+ @2.65 bet365

Nice one.

Pendles o28.5 disposals at $2.05 w Topsport
Pendles u30.5 disposals at $1.81 w Crownbet

 

[langdon19]

Richmond historically have not traveled well.

Check their Gabba form, last 5.
Travelled well I'd say.

 

[X_box_X]

While I highly doubt this will be successful, I think odds of $101 for Jack Lonie to kick the most goals is worth a small go. He has twice kicked three goals, which sometimes may be enough to tie. He has also had a total of four scoring shots on three occasions - if he repeats that today and goes 4.0, that may be enough to win, or at least hopefully tie.

FWIW, Riewoldt was the leading goal scorer last week with three goals.

In 4/9 matches last week, three goals was enough to either win or tie.
In 2/9 matches in round two, three goals was enough to tie.
In 2/9 matches in round one, three goals was enough to tie.

William Hill is offering these odds.

 

[Vhaluus]

Check their Gabba form, last 5.
Travelled well I'd say.

Most teams have an inflated Gabba form due to how shit Brisbane have been.

This is a different Brisbane from previous years though.

 

[langdon19]

Most teams have an inflated Gabba form due to how shit Brisbane have been.

This is a different Brisbane from previous years though.

Knocked off dockers in Perth when they were flying. Richmond should have deflated travel form due to how shit they have been. I think they go ok away from Melbourne.

 

[langdon19]

different Brisbane from previous years though.

How are they different?

 

[Vhaluus]

How are they different?

Well for a start they have a real coach.

 

[Infra Ted]

How are they different?

They seem to be more competitive than last year. I wouldn't be surprised if they won today but I'm not touching them at $3

 

[langdon19]

Richmond -16.5 lads, better travel well boys.

 

[Compromised]

Stephen Hill O25.5 @1.87 Sportsbet
Has gone over 1/3 this year but also went over in his last 4 games last season, expect quality service from Sandi vs Spencer

Hayden Crozier 2+ goals @3.75 bet365 Has been kicking goals in the WAFL and should continue in the AFL, Kicked 2.2 last week but also had a shot taken advantage and kicked one OOTF, getting opportunities
Hayden Crozier 3+ goals @12 SB/B365

Thanks for the tip on this one, got on @ 1.88 for anytime goal

Thoughts on TCS unders for both games today? 4 teams with relatively young / inexperienced forward line (sorry saints fans) 193.5 for pies saints and 199.5 for tigers lions

 

[jimbler]

Is there a late out for the Saints? Noticed the Pies are getting smashed in over the past couple of hours.

 

[HeavyPop]

Saints out to 2.40 at William Hill, game is a lot closer than that.

 

[Vitalogy]

Nathan Jones to kick a goal @ 2 on William Hill. Kicked a goal in his first two games and 3 behinds last week. I expect Melbourne midfield to hit the scoreboard more with no Hogan and Weideman only 3 games into his career and Watts at FF.

I reckon Jobe Watson at $6 to kick a goal is better value. Sure, he hasn't kicked a goal so far this year, but he averages over one goal every two games throughout his career.

Fail

 

[langdon19]

Thanks for the tip on this one, got on @ 1.88 for anytime goal

Thoughts on TCS unders for both games today? 4 teams with relatively young / inexperienced forward line (sorry saints fans) 193.5 for pies saints and 199.5 for tigers lions

Think the TGS is about right for pies/saints
Thinking of unders Bris/Rich
Hoping it blows out past the current 199 at 365

 

[Oraz]

Like Brisbane 3qtr Time line
Their 3rd quarters have been really good this year

 

[Oraz]

Is there a late out for the Saints? Noticed the Pies are getting smashed in over the past couple of hours.

Heard a whisper that armo might be a late out

 

[VK92]

Freo +22.5 @ $1.91 (WH)- 2U
GWS -18.5 @ $1.91 (WH)- 1.5U

2U GC -4.5 (TAB) @ $1.90

Richmond -12.5 @ $1.75 (TAB)- 2U

 

[mookieb]

Is there a late out for the Saints? Noticed the Pies are getting smashed in over the past couple of hours.

What's the go here? I have the Saints the better rated team and their record at Etihad is superb. Easily accounted for Collingwood last year.

Was on StK +2.5 for 2 units but was hoping for Jack Steven to play so hedged out 1u and then put a small amount on StK +10.5 and 1-39 which is paying a healthy $3. Also got a BB on Saints +25.

 

[benji21]

All todays totals have bumped up, think they realised they screwed up yesterdays totals haha

 

[benno_]

2.5U Montagna over 25.5 @1.87 (lux)
1.1U Montagna under 27.5 @1.88 (crown)

 

[Oraz]

Adding another 2u on St Kilda +9.5