AFL 2017 - AFL Round 4

[benno_]

2U Neale >29.5 Disposals @1.87 (Lux)
1U Neale <32.5 Disposals @1.70 (Topsport)

2U Merrett >104.5 DT @1.87 (Lux)
1U Merrett <114.5 DT @1.87 (SB)

I like the overs for both of these but they also have some middles available. Getting on the overs for a unit then doubling it and getting roughly a unit on the middle.

 

[karaoke]

Rugby 7s Arb
England $1.25 Ladbrokes
France $ 5.70 Mad Bookie

France - $6.00 @ Ubet

 

[X_box_X]

Oliver to get more disposals than Mundy at $1.90 w Topsport

 

[X_box_X]

Rugby 7s arbs are massive when it gets to day two and three of tournaments and teams who decide they can't be bothered playing for 9th, 10th, 11th and 12th rest players. Pinnacle reacts to those changes and the small corporates don't (at least not initially).

 

[HeavyPop]

Nathan Jones to kick a goal @ 2 on William Hill. Kicked a goal in his first two games and 3 behinds last week. I expect Melbourne midfield to hit the scoreboard more with no Hogan and Weideman only 3 games into his career and Watts at FF.

 

[X_box_X]

I reckon Jobe Watson at $6 to kick a goal is better value. Sure, he hasn't kicked a goal so far this year, but he averages over one goal every two games throughout his career.

 

[HeavyPop]

I reckon Jobe Watson at $6 to kick a goal is better value. Sure, he hasn't kicked a goal so far this year, but he averages over one goal every two games throughout his career.

 

[The_Big_Ship]

Melb
Port o 15.5
GC 1-39
Adel
Coll o 15.5
Rich
Haw

10 @ 175

 

[Fuzzy Happy Poo]

Rugby 7s Arb
England $1.25 Ladbrokes
France $ 5.70 Mad Bookie

so right after i placed this bet with ladbrokes i recieved an email saying they've closed my account.
last year they banned me from promo after only a few promo bets, i emailed them a couple of weeks ago asking about being restricted from promos.
and now they've just closed my account
bunch of low lifes

 

[mookieb]

Anyone like the SB megabet of Danger 35 possies +2 goals at $6? I don't need to tell you the problems Hawks are having the the midfield.

Also Dusty and Beams 60 possies + 3 goals at $4. Might be a high scoring affair.

Just had a little dabble on both.

 

[mookieb]

Think Freo might be a little flat after their stirring win following the blasting they copped in the media. Think Melbourne has played some pretty good footy despite their injuries. On Melbourne -19.5.

 

[Fuzzy Happy Poo]

Anyone like daniher 5+ goals and essendon win @51 Williamhill tweetabet

 

[Lensen]

so right after i placed this bet with ladbrokes i recieved an email saying they've closed my account.
last year they banned me from promo after only a few promo bets, i emailed them a couple of weeks ago asking about being restricted from promos.
and now they've just closed my account
bunch of low lifes

lol

 

[benji21]

Hayden Crozier Anytime goal scorer @1.80 SB
moved up from 1.62 for some reason and too good to pass on

Should be one of the freo forwards kicking goals

Was getting worried for you, but good find

 

[benji21]

Almost time to get on freo for next week against north?

 

[Macpotata]

Over 190 port vs gws. I got to check the weather tho. If it's fine, I like it.

 

[Macpotata]

Dockers were bloody good today. Well done lads.

 

[Vhaluus]

Dockers and GC turned the corner last week so backed them both in this week.

One paid off, one more to go.

 

[Macpotata]

I like power today and also the line for them. Just a few bucks on both.

 

[benno_]

1.15U B.Ellis <82.5 DT @1.88 (crown)

Averaging 64.5 so far this year (51, 68, 74). Happy to take the unders here.

1.6U Josh Gibson <70.5 DT @1.88 (crown)

Averaging 48 (45, 36, 64). Happy to take the unders here again with the DT form he's in.

 

[Oraz]

1u Live Bet Port +19.5

They look competitive

 

[benji21]

1.6U Josh Gibson <70.5 DT @1.88 (crown)

Averaging 48 (45, 36, 64). Happy to take the unders here again with the DT form he's in.

thoughts on murphy tonight? has been killing it. 110.5 with SB

 

[benno_]

thoughts on murphy tonight? has been killing it. 110.5 with SB

He's an interesting one. One of those ones that is posting ridiculous numbers recently which make it seem like he should smash the 110.5, but really 110+ is still quite a high score to get.

Almost tempted to take the unders hoping they pushed the line a tiny bit too high due to his form and he falls short, but probably won't. I almost took Wines' unders today for similar reasons, was around 112.5 due to his form and he's only on 36 currently just before half time.

I'll probably be staying away from Murphy though, I wouldn't be able to confidently tip either the over or under. I don't really like taking overs on high lines, which is why I don't usually bet on guys like Danger, Rocky, Merrett who often sit around 110-120

 

[benno_]

0.5U David Swallow Most Disposals Group 2 @6 Bet365 (Curnow, Simpson, Rosa, KK, Marchbank, Thomas, Lyons)

Few guys in that group can get some disposals but no massive standouts. Swallows in group 1 at SB and the favourite @3.25 for group 2 at Crown. Coming off 34 touches last week, I'll have a nibble on him with odds of $6.

EDIT: Upped it to 1U

 

[happy punter]

Crows 1-39 over Bombers @ 2.40 (1 unit)