AFL 2017 - AFL Round 5

[Vhaluus]

Yeah I reckon Melbourne tonight . Richmond are pretenders.

In the dry I think Melbourne win comfortably.

The wet throws a bit of a question mark over the game in my opinion. Dusty seems like he'd be a great wet weather player if he's not hampered by his groin.

 

[Russian Demon]

Richmond may very well just not turn up today. They looked shakey vs Carlton, if the pressure is high they may very well melt.

However, if they get the ball in deep to F50, we'll get killed by the mosquito brigade and Jack.

 

[Macpotata]

Dees
Pies

My tips for the remaining two games.line for dees should be good.

 

[AFLFootyChick]

Really can't see how they are a much better side. They've beaten Brisbane, Carlton and Collingwood, all bottom 8 (even 4 for Brisbane and Carlton)) teams, and then West Coast who showed yesterday how incompetent they are at the MCG.

My comment about the ANZAC game was in response to you saying Richmond would stand up to the "big occasion", which has no evidence to it based on past results.

Melbourne 1-39 @2.63 the play for mine.

Point being, they're also involved in the Dreamtime game...another BIG occasion.

 

[benno_]

Not confident backing either side. Thinking it will be close in the wet though and don't see either side being blown out. Jumping on:

Tigers 1-39 @2.20 (bet365)
Melb +6.5 @2 (TABtouch lines)

Hoping for a Tigers win with a 1-6 margin.

 

[CROWS84]

What are people thinking of the over/under line of 158.5 for tonight ? Doesn't look like heaps of rain predicted for Melbourne today (2-8mm). Has it been wet in Melbourne the last day or so?

 

[mattwa]

Melb and Essendon to win look the goods.

Collingwood have zero structure around the ground and i think Essendon spines a lot better which will be important in a big game like this one

 

[AFLFootyChick]

What are people thinking of the over/under line of 158.5 for tonight ? Doesn't look like heaps of rain predicted for Melbourne today (2-8mm). Has it been wet in Melbourne the last day or so?

It's overcast now, but there's been no rain to speak of in the last few days. There were thunderstorms predicted, and rain could still come (it's going to be very wet tomorrow), but even with light rain during play, that total seems low to me.

 

[ricardogp]

Taking the armchair route with the TabTouch $2 line (Melb +6.5) and Ladbrokes BetBlast on Richmond.

Eat some popcorn and see if it's a 1-goal game.

 

[AFLFootyChick]

Not confident backing either side. Thinking it will be close in the wet though and don't see either side being blown out. Jumping on:

Tigers 1-39 @2.20 (bet365)
Melb +6.5 @2 (TABtouch lines)

Hoping for a Tigers win with a 1-6 margin.

Agree, whoever wins either match, it should be under 39 points because of the weather predicted

 

[CROWS84]

It's overcast now, but there's been no rain to speak of in the last few days. There were thunderstorms predicted, and rain could still come (it's going to be very wet tomorrow), but even with light rain during play, that total seems low to me.

Thanks mate , I like the over, seems like a bit of a overeaction to the rain coming , looks like the under maybe a good bet tomorrow however

 

[CROWS84]

For those who like Melbourne tonight. 1-39 margin is $2.89 on Pinnacle. Most other books around $2.50

 

[AFLFootyChick]

Thanks mate , I like the over, seems like a bit of a overeaction to the rain coming , looks like the under maybe a good bet tomorrow however

Yep, agree with you on both games. Good luck with your bets! Hope everyone enjoys the game tonight.

 

[karaoke]

Tigers 1-39 @2.20 (bet365)

FWIW - 2.35 at betting.club

 

[mookieb]

For those who like Melbourne tonight. 1-39 margin is $2.89 on Pinnacle. Most other books around $2.50

Yeah I jumped on this (it's 2.79) for a small bet. Everyone getting a bit excited about Richmond who have played Carl, Coll, Bris and WC at the G.

I got under 172.5 at Palmerbet yesterday. It's as low as 159.5 now. Should this be an automatic middle or should it depend on how I see the match progressing? Is this enough of a gap?

I have also been betting alot of early lines that have tended to move my way by game day. I'm thinking of betting bigger on the line I think might move the most with SB boost at 1.95 and then hedge with TABtouch at $2. Let some ride and middle the rest.

 

[CROWS84]

Yep, agree with you on both games. Good luck with your bets! Hope everyone enjoys the game tonight.

Cheers, likewise.

 

[CROWS84]

Yeah I jumped on this (it's 2.79) for a small bet. Everyone getting a bit excited about Richmond who have played Carl, Coll, Bris and WC at the G.

I got under 172.5 at Palmerbet yesterday. It's as low as 159.5 now. Should this be an automatic middle or should it depend on how I see the match progressing? Is this enough of a gap?

I have also been betting alot of early lines that have tended to move my way by game day. I'm thinking of betting bigger on the line I think might move the most with SB boost at 1.95 and then hedge with TABtouch at $2. Let some ride and middle the rest.

Probably is a good middling opportunity, the closer to $2 good also for this. It's a tough one !

 

[HeavyPop]

Agreed with the thoughts on the Dees. It's where the value seems to be.

Melb 1-39
Jesse Hogan 3+ goals
@ 5.74

 

[Mazza12346]

Dees looked the bet of the round all week

Tigers have beaten nobodies and with injury cloud around Dusty i highly doubt he plays an absolute belter

Solid crack on the dees straight up

 

[X_box_X]

The game total is moving at a rapid pace.

Just got $600 on over 161.5 pts at $1.95 and put $570 on under 163.5 pts at $2.07 with Pinny.

 

[applaps]

People betting on Demons based on the fact Tigers have beaten nobody, but what have Demons done? Beaten an injury riddled round 1 saints, jus got away vs carlton with over 50% of the game being 1 score or less, and trailing in the 4th, lost to geelong (yeh demons had injuries), and lost at home to freo...

I am not decided either way, I am just wondering how that is a valid reason to bet against the Tigers, when Demons seem to have done even less..?

 

[2nd_2_None]

The game total is moving at a rapid pace.

Just got $600 on over 161.5 pts at $1.95 and put $570 on under 163.5 pts at $2.07 with Pinny.

Good luck mate, really hope you nail this one!

 

[AFLFootyChick]

Watching AFL Tonight, no rain at the ground yet. They said showers are expected by half time. Totals are being adjusted all over the place. Ladbrokes back at 167.5 now. It'll probably change again by the time I post this!

 

[Oraz]

People betting on Demons based on the fact Tigers have beaten nobody, but what have Demons done? Beaten an injury riddled round 1 saints, jus got away vs carlton with over 50% of the game being 1 score or less, and trailing in the 4th, lost to geelong (yeh demons had injuries), and lost at home to freo...

I am not decided either way, I am just wondering how that is a valid reason to bet against the Tigers, when Demons seem to have done even less..?

Very good point.


However, I Still fancy Melbourne. I believe their Structure's and team are more reliable than Richmond's.

Edit; Richmond play a very open attacking style of game. This has worked against poor opposition. I'm not exactly sure if it will work against Melbourne. Melbourne usually do have a good defensive structure (I'm saying usually because last week it fell apart). Melbourne should be able to work Richmond's gameplan out (If Goodwin is a competent coach). Based on this, i think it will be a tight game. Melbourne edging it due to their superior team on paper.

2u Melbourne +5.5 @ 1.92

 

[applaps]

Very good point.


However, I Still fancy Melbourne. I believe their Structure's and team are more reliable than Richmond's.

2u Melbourne +5.5 @ 1.92

I'm a long time watcher first time poster in these threads. A lot of you guys make some really good points usually which have helped me make smart decisions. However, everything up till now says his is a game where you bet on tigers or you don't bet at all. For me, Demons have not shown enough in he first 4 weeks to get my money against an undefeated side, and I haven't seen any logical arguments as to how they will win (eg. Comparing squads on paper, discussion of tactics/playing styles etc)

This is the afl, where 1.10s frequently lose. Being 4 games undefeated is no easy task no matter who you play..


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