NFL 2017 NFL Pre-Season Discussion

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Next Browns/Jets/Bears GM in a couple years?


NFL hired ex-49ers GM Trent Baalke as Football Operations Consultant.

Just a reminder that no matter how bad you were at your previous job, the cocoon that is the NFL will keep finding spots for you as long as you're part of the family. Per ESPN's Adam Schefter, Baalke will handle a "variety of roles," including "game-related matters, player development, and evaluation." Holding the same job in 2016 allowed Tom Coughlin to resurface with the Jags this year.
Related: 49ers

Source: Adam Schefter on Twitter
Aug 6 - 8:30 PM
 
GG.exe said:
After speaking with Broncos personnel, Yahoo's Charles Robinson reports Paxton Lynch is being outplayed by Trevor Siemian at training camp.

Citing observers of the Broncos' practice tape, Robinson reports "Lynch has lost every single practice session to Siemian." Siemian remains a capped-ceiling commodity, but Lynch simply hasn't taken the step forward the Broncos had hoped. Robinson does acknowledge the competition remains "unsettled," and there's a chance things click for Lynch in preseason games. Still, at this point in time Siemian is the favorite to start in Week 1.
Related: Trevor Siemian

Source: Yahoo Sports
Aug 6 - 7:43 PM
Click to expand...
Not entirely true
 

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Teams that won more than 11 games (inc. playoffs) with a differential of 70 or less going back to 1989

This year: Packers + Raiders

5 out of 16 made the playoffs. 8.5 wins was the median. None won the Super Bowl


I think both will be SB contenders. Rodgers will carry GB like he always does and I think the difference with Oakland is that they are actually getting better, even tho they over-performed last year
 
LicoriceAllsorts said:
Teams that won more than 11 games (inc. playoffs) with a differential of 70 or less going back to 1989

This year: Packers + Raiders

5 out of 16 made the playoffs. 8.5 wins was the median. None won the Super Bowl


I think both will be SB contenders. Rodgers will carry GB like he always does and I think the difference with Oakland is that they are actually getting better, even tho they over-performed last year
Click to expand...

And out D might actually get a stop this season
 
Teams with a 0 or negative turnover differential the previous year and won more than 10 games made the playoffs the next year 17/38 times

Teams that had a positive turnover differential, but lower than +15 made the playoffs the next year 70/129

All together that's 87/167 times


This years teams are Pats, Seahawks, Giants, Raiders, Packers, Cowboys, Steelers
 
Kansas City has been +14 and +16 in turnover differential the last two reg seasons.

Takeaways is usually a random stat. Whereas giveaways is not. Looking at Alex Smith he is safe, etc. The last 3 years KC have turned it over 17, 15, 17 times. Very even. Whereas takeaways have been 13, 29, 33 (2014 being a down year compared to the last 2)

You'd say this might point to the Chiefs dropping off, especially against good teams (Pats, Raiders, Steelers. Even throw in teams like Houston or Denver who will in all likelihood look to be safe on offense, and win with their defense)
 
aussiedude said:
LicoriceAllsorts Do you have a stat for QB's or RB's and sophomore slumps.
Click to expand...
I'll look, half of these aren't my work. My most recent one about KC could link to Dallas (I assume you are getting at them).

Dallas' offense is run first obviously and Dak has shown to be safe with the ball. Zeke has been known to have fumble problems but I'd guess the 15 giveaways from last season will stay thereabouts. Last 3 years Dallas has had 31, 11, 20 takeaways. So you can clearly see a link in there good and bad years.

Even though they've maintained a steady O-line those years, and a good run game, they weren't able to win games in 2015.

20 takeaways was below average last year. So I see 2 possible outcomes for Dallas:

- They are even better than last year with more takeaways (quite unlikely IMO)
- They drop off slightly to a .500 team

If their defense is even worse (as I've heard) then they could be in trouble.




I WILL look for actual information of QB/RB sophomore slumps tho, to your point
 
aussiedude looking at sophomore QB's

I only went back 15 or so years due to the way QBing has changed/become a lot easier in many ways.

Some notable QB's who played on good teams as rookies (or their first year) and had good/moderate team and individual success (playoff teams).

regular season stats only

Tom Brady (not a rookie but this is the first example):

2001 - 18 TD's, 12 INT's, 2843 yds, 63.9%, starting record: 11-3 record = playoffs

2002 - 28/14, 3764 yds, 62.1%, 9-7 = missed playoffs

Ben Roethlisberger:

2004 - 17/11, 2621 yds, 66.4%, 13-0 = playoffs

2005 - 17/9, 2385 yds, 62.7%, 9-3 = playoffs

Joe Flacco:

2008 - 14/12, 2917 yds, 60.0%, 11-5 = playoffs

2009 - 21/12, 3613 yds, 63.1%, 9-7 = playoffs

Matt Ryan:

2008 - 16/11, 3440 yds, 61.1%, 11-5 = playoffs

2009 - 22/14, 2916 yds, 58.3%, 9-5 = missed playoffs

Andy Dalton:

2011 - 20/13, 3398 yds, 58.1%, 9-7 = playoffs

2012 - 27/16, 3669 yds, 62.3%, 10-6 = playoffs

Andrew Luck:

2012 - 23/18, 4374 yds, 54.2%, 11-5 = playoffs

2013 - 23/9, 3822 yds, 60.2%, 11-5 = playoffs

Russell Wilson: (best comparison IMO)

2012 - 26/10, 3118 yds, 64.1%, 11-5 = playoffs

2013 - 26/9, 3357 yds, 63.1%, 13-3 = playoffs



QB's become more accurate in their 2nd season in most cases, throw more TD's, and INT's stay the same, because they are taking more chances, but are also better.

Andrew Luck was really the only one who saw a significant drop in INT's, likely because so much was on his shoulders his rookie season (you see the exact same experience with Peyton Manning in year 1 and 2) -

Two examples, Wilson and Roethlisberger had almost exactly the same numbers in both seasons.


It's hard to tell how Dallas will go with both their QB AND their RB as sophomores.

The only situation I can really recall that is similar is Aikman and Smith. Although Smith was a year later than Aikman. Both improved into their second and third season, and then won Super Bowl's in their 3rd/4th seasons onwards.

I think Dallas will still be great offensively. There isn't really a ton on Dak's plate, he can rely on the run game. I expect similar numbers, maybe a few more TD's and INT's. More yards too. Overall their offense will actually be better IMO. But that will get overlooked due to a worse record (around .500)

I just don't know enough about their defense whether it's better or worse. Supposedly it's worse and so therefore it drops to .500 or so as I said
 

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LicoriceAllsorts said:
aussiedude looking at sophomore QB's

I only went back 15 or so years due to the way QBing has changed/become a lot easier in many ways.

Some notable QB's who played on good teams as rookies (or their first year) and had good/moderate team and individual success (playoff teams).

regular season stats only

Tom Brady (not a rookie but this is the first example):

2001 - 18 TD's, 12 INT's, 2843 yds, 63.9%, starting record: 11-3 record = playoffs

2002 - 28/14, 3764 yds, 62.1%, 9-7 = missed playoffs

Ben Roethlisberger:

2004 - 17/11, 2621 yds, 66.4%, 13-0 = playoffs

2005 - 17/9, 2385 yds, 62.7%, 9-3 = playoffs

Joe Flacco:

2008 - 14/12, 2917 yds, 60.0%, 11-5 = playoffs

2009 - 21/12, 3613 yds, 63.1%, 9-7 = playoffs

Matt Ryan:

2008 - 16/11, 3440 yds, 61.1%, 11-5 = playoffs

2009 - 22/14, 2916 yds, 58.3%, 9-5 = missed playoffs

Andy Dalton:

2011 - 20/13, 3398 yds, 58.1%, 9-7 = playoffs

2012 - 27/16, 3669 yds, 62.3%, 10-6 = playoffs

Andrew Luck:

2012 - 23/18, 4374 yds, 54.2%, 11-5 = playoffs

2013 - 23/9, 3822 yds, 60.2%, 11-5 = playoffs

Russell Wilson: (best comparison IMO)

2012 - 26/10, 3118 yds, 64.1%, 11-5 = playoffs

2013 - 26/9, 3357 yds, 63.1%, 13-3 = playoffs



QB's become more accurate in their 2nd season in most cases, throw more TD's, and INT's stay the same, because they are taking more chances, but are also better.

Andrew Luck was really the only one who saw a significant drop in INT's, likely because so much was on his shoulders his rookie season (you see the exact same experience with Peyton Manning in year 1 and 2) -

Two examples, Wilson and Roethlisberger had almost exactly the same numbers in both seasons.


It's hard to tell how Dallas will go with both their QB AND their RB as sophomores.

The only situation I can really recall that is similar is Aikman and Smith. Although Smith was a year later than Aikman. Both improved into their second and third season, and then won Super Bowl's in their 3rd/4th seasons onwards.

I think Dallas will still be great offensively. There isn't really a ton on Dak's plate, he can rely on the run game. I expect similar numbers, maybe a few more TD's and INT's. More yards too. Overall their offense will actually be better IMO. But that will get overlooked due to a worse record (around .500)

I just don't know enough about their defense whether it's better or worse. Supposedly it's worse and so therefore it drops to .500 or so as I said
Click to expand...
To add to this. Look at the first 4 examples: Brady, Ben, Flacco, Ryan. All teams dropped in record the 2nd season.


Then look at Dalton and Wilson. Their record improved. I think this is because they also had great defenses in those years. Dallas doesn't have that. Therefore they drop off
 
LicoriceAllsorts said:
aussiedude looking at sophomore QB's

I only went back 15 or so years due to the way QBing has changed/become a lot easier in many ways.

Some notable QB's who played on good teams as rookies (or their first year) and had good/moderate team and individual success (playoff teams).

regular season stats only

Tom Brady (not a rookie but this is the first example):

2001 - 18 TD's, 12 INT's, 2843 yds, 63.9%, starting record: 11-3 record = playoffs

2002 - 28/14, 3764 yds, 62.1%, 9-7 = missed playoffs

Ben Roethlisberger:

2004 - 17/11, 2621 yds, 66.4%, 13-0 = playoffs

2005 - 17/9, 2385 yds, 62.7%, 9-3 = playoffs

Joe Flacco:

2008 - 14/12, 2917 yds, 60.0%, 11-5 = playoffs

2009 - 21/12, 3613 yds, 63.1%, 9-7 = playoffs

Matt Ryan:

2008 - 16/11, 3440 yds, 61.1%, 11-5 = playoffs

2009 - 22/14, 2916 yds, 58.3%, 9-5 = missed playoffs

Andy Dalton:

2011 - 20/13, 3398 yds, 58.1%, 9-7 = playoffs

2012 - 27/16, 3669 yds, 62.3%, 10-6 = playoffs

Andrew Luck:

2012 - 23/18, 4374 yds, 54.2%, 11-5 = playoffs

2013 - 23/9, 3822 yds, 60.2%, 11-5 = playoffs

Russell Wilson: (best comparison IMO)

2012 - 26/10, 3118 yds, 64.1%, 11-5 = playoffs

2013 - 26/9, 3357 yds, 63.1%, 13-3 = playoffs



QB's become more accurate in their 2nd season in most cases, throw more TD's, and INT's stay the same, because they are taking more chances, but are also better.

Andrew Luck was really the only one who saw a significant drop in INT's, likely because so much was on his shoulders his rookie season (you see the exact same experience with Peyton Manning in year 1 and 2) -

Two examples, Wilson and Roethlisberger had almost exactly the same numbers in both seasons.


It's hard to tell how Dallas will go with both their QB AND their RB as sophomores.

The only situation I can really recall that is similar is Aikman and Smith. Although Smith was a year later than Aikman. Both improved into their second and third season, and then won Super Bowl's in their 3rd/4th seasons onwards.

I think Dallas will still be great offensively. There isn't really a ton on Dak's plate, he can rely on the run game. I expect similar numbers, maybe a few more TD's and INT's. More yards too. Overall their offense will actually be better IMO. But that will get overlooked due to a worse record (around .500)

I just don't know enough about their defense whether it's better or worse. Supposedly it's worse and so therefore it drops to .500 or so as I said
Click to expand...
What about sophomore turnarounds. Specifically ones who had similar bad rookie years like Goff...How many turned it around versus not?
 
GG.exe said:
What about sophomore turnarounds. Specifically ones who had similar bad rookie years like Goff...How many turned it around versus not?
Click to expand...
Eli Manning

2004 - 6/9, 1043 yds, 48.2%, 1-6 record

2005 - 24/17, 3762 yds, 52.8%, 11-5 record

Actually an extremely similar first season to Goff

Blake Bortles

2014 - 11/17, 2908, 58.9%, 3-10

2015 - 35/18, 4428, 58.6%, 5-11

Alex Smith

2005 - 1/11, 875 yds, 50.9%, 2-5

2006 - 16/16, 2890 yds, 58.1%, 7-9

Ryan Tannehill

2012 - 12/13, 3294 yds, 58.3%, 7-9

2013 - 24/17, 3913 yds, 60.4%, 8-8


Matt Stafford didn't really play his second season. But he was 13/20 his first year and is great now.


Vince Young didn't turn it around. Nor did Matt Leinart.

JaMarcus Russell was better in his second year but worse in his third.
 
GG.exe said:
Days to go before football kicks off...

images
Click to expand...

Shits going to hit the fan when its 12 days. Some great QB's had that number.

You would of had the same problem if you were using active players.
 

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