AFL 2018 - AFL Round 13

[Sausage Legs]

well teamlist suggests Sheppard but thats only the teamlist. who do you think?

only read this now, looks like they shared it around a lot but hurn did a lot. I was just surprised that Eagles would want to put Gov on a lockdown role with his ability to run free and read how he does

 

[chrisdon16]

Completely disagree, that was one of the most even, high intensity quarters of football I’ve seen in a long time.

Did you watch the game? West Coast were all over them like a rash for the first 20 mins, can't find the 1st quarter stats but at one stage it was something like 2- 12 I50's.

 

[Rocky Straight]

Did you watch the game? West Coast were all over them like a rash for the first 20 mins, can't find the 1st quarter stats but at one stage it was something like 2- 12 I50's.

Wce won 1st by 10 I50s, they won it the 2nd and 3rd quarters too though

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[Sabbathen]

Did you watch the game? West Coast were all over them like a rash for the first 20 mins, can't find the 1st quarter stats but at one stage it was something like 2- 12 I50's.

Yeah I watched the game mate, there was one goal scored in the first quarter in a tight and relentless quarter. West Coast also finished the game with 11 more inside 50’s than Sydney and still lost by 15 points so I don’t think your argument makes any sense.

 

[Red Dog Styles]

Morocco good odds at 2.25 (even lead half time payout)
with winnings going to bet on Ladbrokes promo -

Mitchell over 32 disposals and Hawks to win = 3.00.
Max bet $100.


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[NonPhixion]

I like Charlie Curnow tomorrow, especially with Alex Pearce out, that Fremantle defense is very suspect.
1u 3+ 2.50
0.5u 4+5.50
0.3u 5+ 14
all on SB, might get better odds 365 havnt checked

 

[Rocky Straight]

I like Charlie Curnow tomorrow, especially with Alex Pearce out, that Fremantle defense is very suspect.
1u 3+ 2.50
0.5u 4+5.50
0.3u 5+ 14
all on SB, might get better odds 365 havnt checked

3.25 at topsport for 3, you'll rarely find bigger for the 3+ at sportsbet the way they do it.
Same for 30+


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[timster]

Could be a very hard round to predict.

Port should dispose of WB quite easily but it's expected to be quite wet so -38.5 seems high given Port aren't kicking heaps of goals.

Hawks are clear favs now but Lynch and Laird might come back in for next week. On the other hand Luke Brown will probably miss and Crouch seemed to hurt his strapped shoulder and did nothing after half time. Ade are now getting slammed in the media with a number of different rumours

Syd seem better on the road than at home, but WC will miss Darling.

Geel form is increasing and their backline has been fantastic so you could back them or back Rich on the basis it's at the MCG which is normally money for jam.

Freo just beat Ade for a great win. They get a 6 day break and get Sandi and Fyfe but lose Walters and Pearce which is almost a break even result. Carl will be set and eyeing this for a win given Freo's away record and Freo might just have an eye on the break. Or alternatively Freo have found some form and find a winnable game on the road.

GC vs StK should be a doozy with both teams copping the media spotlight. Dire consequences for losing for both teams. Both with long injury lists. Not sure how StK can lose 11 games in a row and play on the road and be 8.5 point favs?

Had a few early bets on Hawks H2H, StK H2H, Carl +12.5, Port -36.5, Syd / WC U162.5, Port vs WB U144.5 and Hawks vs Ade U160.5.

Looked up the trend for teams playing this round off a bye and was surprised to find it positive over the last 4 years:

Carl 3W 1L ATS (beat GWS last year)
WC 4W ATS
Hawks 3W 1L ATS (beat Ade in Ade last year)
WB 2W 2L

Well done on a great post. This forum seems to b more about a pissing contest then quality sharing of ideas. Hopefully this post encourages others to do the same

 

[benji21]

Rocky Straight chrisdon16 , whats wrong with betting on mondays.

Its pretty simple markets run at 104% in general, to beat the bookies you need to be 5% better.

Monday betting is a good opportunity to do so.

We aren't here to be right 100% of the time, we are here for the 5% plus.

 

[mookieb]

Posting bets doesn't prove anything either, get that through your head.

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What's more important than posting bets and have the forum discuss the pros and cons? You can't post a bet but you can spend an afternoon trying to mock someone if they mention a 1 point line move or have a whinge if their bet gets unlucky. Universally if you act like you've got everything sorted and your at the top of the food chain to the point where you can mock others, don't be surprised when you get asked for evidence. I tail heaps of winning sports bettors and they all kindly post their bets and give some reasoning. I can then do my own research and make a decision either way.

For some bizarre reason you decide to attack a winning punter who posts all his bets to the point where you feel the need to mock someone for winning, but not winning enough for your satisfaction. All well and good if you want to document everyone of your picks as a comparison. Unfortunately i'm past taking your word for it that your the best punter on here.

 

[Sabbathen]

Rocky Straight chrisdon16 , whats wrong with betting on mondays.

Its pretty simple markets run at 104% in general, to beat the bookies you need to be 5% better.

Monday betting is a good opportunity to do so.

We aren't here to be right 100% of the time, we are here for the 5% plus.

I’d say a lot of people here are actually betting into markets over 5% based on the bookmakers they quote. People go to the effort of tracking bets and posting their records in multiple places but can’t use a free odds comparison service for 2 seconds to find the best price?

The other thing with betting on a Monday is knowing wether you are beating the closing line or SP consistently.

 

[puntking]

saints with the line they will win this easy coach on the line money for jam

 

[HTPunter]

.3U Billings 3+ goals @ $6.50
.2U Billings 30+ disposals @ $21
.1U Billings 30 & 3 @ $201

 

[HTPunter]

Fremantle have won 8 1st quarters this year, Carlton 3.

1/4 time line Freo -1.5
1.5U @ $1.95

 

[royeca]

Fremantle have won 8 1st quarters this year, Carlton 3.

1/4 time line Freo -1.5
1.5U @ $1.95

Completely different team away from home, have only won 1/20 quarters away from Perth.

 

[the_big_sav]

Kennedy misses from right infront with min to go costs covering the line

 

[AFLFootyChick]

Yet, you don't say a word about...
- benji21
- maskmcgee
- AFLFootyChick
- langdon19
- mookieb
- demon_fanatic
- ontheroad
- capperscap
- Boxhead182
- CatFan79

posting bets on the first page....

And you've made a LIST?! WOW! FYI - If a bookie allows me to bet on a Monday, or any day for that matter, and I put a bet on and post it here, I won't be thrown under the bus for it - by anyone here! Reason enough to back off completely from this forum, which I have done lately anyway. At least when I do post, I give deductive reasoning and don't do the chrisdon16, "I has spoken" bet of - "Richmond -8.5" - as an example, with nothing more. Nice of you to let us know you're going with that line, or that over, or that under. We'll all put our money on because YOU wrote it, and especially so because it wasn't written on a MONDAY!

 

[Sketi]

Well done on a great post. This forum seems to b more about a pissing contest then quality sharing of ideas. Hopefully this post encourages others to do the same

Agreed, without the sober analysis from mookieb a couple of others I would stop browsing this board all together. A lot of crap to wade through these days.

 

[chrisdon16]

And you've made a LIST?! WOW! FYI - If a bookie allows me to bet on a Monday, or any day for that matter, and I put a bet on and post it here, I won't be thrown under the bus for it - by anyone here! Reason enough to back off completely from this forum, which I have done lately anyway. At least when I do post, I give deductive reasoning and don't do the chrisdon16, "I has spoken" bet of - "Richmond -8.5" - as an example, with nothing more. Nice of you to let us know you're going with that line, or that over, or that under. We'll all put our money on because YOU wrote it, and especially so because it wasn't written on a MONDAY!

All I was doing was trying to understand why Rocky attacks me and no one else. Take it easy

This is a punting forum, I jump on and put in bets I like. Pretty simple stuff? Not sure what your on about with those innuendo's. But it's pointless to give reasons as it's just a handicapped game? Have you heard of handicapping? I couldn't care less who agrees with them, bets them etc. so not sure what you mean when you say "we'll bet then because I put them up". And I do have opinions on games pretty regularly. As for posting on Monday's, you also seem to have an issue with it. How many games have I posted on a Monday this season? And why does it become an issue when I do it and no one else?

Others put in bets very regularly without "reasoning" too but no issue with it?

 

[DaicosianMarvels]

Carlton @ 2.56 - 3.5 units
GC v StKilda under 169.5 - 2 units

Blues, StKilda and Hawthorn (Multi)- 1 unit.

Pretty straight forward weekend it seems. Very confident with Carlton and that may sound silly with them sitting last but Fremantle in Melbourne is arguably the worst side in the league.

 

[chrisdon16]

GC v StKilda under 169.5 - 2 units

Line has been under 169.5 for 2 days. Better be careful the punting police might have an issue with that.

 

[DaicosianMarvels]

Line has been under 169.5 for 2 days. Better be careful the punting police might have an issue with that.

I backed it with Sportsbet on Monday night but has it really? I swear I thought I checked two days ago lol.

 

[Boxhead182]

Fremantle win $1.70 SB.
They bring some class back into the side this week. May have abit too much class for the Blues. If this was played at the G it would be a no play for me. Fyfe’s 150th & coming off a win I’ll back them in.

 

[sledbomber]

.3U Billings 3+ goals @ $6.50
.2U Billings 30+ disposals @ $21
.1U Billings 30 & 3 @ $201

I have had a nibble at these. FYI if u do same game multi on 30+ and 3 you can get $276


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[sledbomber]

I really like this forum and there are some punters I trust more than others. I find it pretty easy just to filter out the ones I don't like and utilise the good posts. Is it really necessary to attack posts and people u don't agree with?Just ignore and move on. I fear if all this animosity continues people will just stop posting bets and then we will all lose out.


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