AFL 2018 - AFL Round 2

[TheScream]

Mookie B
Melb vs North next week
Get on North +26.5 now?

Was at 4.45 / +35.5 prior to the weekend. GC too were at a silly price ($3.18) vs freo at home. Probably still value both of them

 

[langdon19]

GC game is in perth

 

[TheScream]

Guys I’m 8/8 this week in SB tipping comp! 10 people left including myself. Most people have gone geelong in the last game so thinking of just going for the Hawks in what i see as a 60/40 game. Eliminates the need to nail the margin... any tips on what to do?

 

[Sketi]

Gold Coasts "home" game against Freo is in Perth at the new stadium for some strange reason(?). I wonder how many punters / tipsters will not realise.

 

[TheScream]

GC game is in perth

Damn, i stand corrected sir. Sportsbet and AFL.com.au both have GC on the left wtf

 

[Jugada]

Guys I’m 8/8 this week in SB tipping comp! 10 people left including myself. Most people have gone geelong in the last game so thinking of just going for the Hawks in what i see as a 60/40 game. Eliminates the need to nail the margin... any tips on what to do?

How do you tell most people have tipped Geelong?

 

[TheScream]

How do you tell most people have tipped Geelong?

I don't know for sure but 77% of the comp have picked Geelong and they're favourites so just assuming most of the other 9 to go with them

 

[timster]

You would think danger 2 or more goals @ $2.20 bet365 and burgoyne @$2.60 isnt bad considering roles both are playing. Ie more forward

 

[mookieb]

Mookie B
Melb vs North next week
Get on North +26.5 now?

I was going to mention this game as a few posters were keen on NM against StK and I thought it might have been a better bet. Odds were around +29.5 which seemed great value because they beat Melb twice last year and Melb tend to go to sleep for a quarter which makes it hard for them to blow teams away.

Last year NM won twice won 2 in a row including knocking off Ade after beating GC. The only concern would be that heavy underdog teams who thrash teams by significant margins tend to do poorly against ATS the following week.

So normally you would think they would kick on from a good win, but some danger they get ahead of themselves.

 

[PHX]

Damn, i stand corrected sir. Sportsbet and AFL.com.au both have GC on the left wtf

It's a GC home game in Perth. They sold a home game to Freo to deal with the Commonwealth Games situation and maybe to slightly less suck at AFL HQ's funding teat but more the former.

 

[AFLFootyChick]

Just reiterating what I said earlier this weekend. Today's game, Sportsbet are paying $2.80 for ANY player to get 40+ disposals. Mitchell, the most likely to hit it, is paying $3 for 40+, just for him. I'm happy to take 20 cents less to include Geelong's trio (Ablett, Dangerfield and Selwood) to rack them up as well.

 

[PHX]

Just reiterating what I said earlier this weekend. Today's game, Sportsbet are paying $2.80 for ANY player to get 40+ disposals. Mitchell, the most likely to hit it, is paying $3 for 40+, just for him. I'm happy to take 20 cents less to include Geelong's trio (Ablett, Dangerfield and Selwood) to rack them up as well.

I'm not saying it won't win but I'm not sure it's any great value.

Tom went 40+ in 3 out of 22 games last year, Gaz went 40+ in 2 from 14, Danger 1, Selwood zero.

Yes Tom and Gaz are exceptions to the norm in being able to rack up disposals but 40 is still really hard to get to.

 

[PHX]

How do you tell most people have tipped Geelong?

Select "View match info".

AFL.com.au also shows it and for them it's 84% Cats, 16% Hawks.

 

[capperscap]

money coming for hawthorn
is there a late change?

 

[SM]

Roof open is a new one on me.
Had this game pegged for 190
Still a no bet for me
Good luck all
May it rain behinds, for the doggies.

Good pick.

 

[Hellboy101]

Impey more disposals than Burton. 1.9 @ topbetta.
Good tip on Parker over Rocky yesterday

 

[TheScream]

money coming for hawthorn
is there a late change?

Mitch Duncan out, Cockatoo comes in

 

[capperscap]

Mitch Duncan out, Cockatoo comes in

How big of a loss is this for geelong

 

[TheScream]

How big of a loss is this for geelong

It's a pretty big loss, he's there best mid outside of the big 3 and he's pretty underrated imo. Cats still have the better midfield but I think Hawks have the edge in both defence and in attack

 

[SM]

langdon19 how do you calc your totals?

Put a bit on Cats straight out and a bit on Cats line. Still don't rate Hawks highly enough.

 

[jefffff34]

Geelong chase the goal.
Albert most possessions in his group (which is now short Duncan)

 

[langdon19]

langdon19 how do you calc your totals?

Put a bit on Cats straight out and a bit on Cats line. Still don't rate Hawks highly enough.

I'm worried if it tell totals will get moved before I get on
St vs adl this morning came out at 186, went to 193 in minutes
Happy to help with tgs
I work them Sunday night
Round 5 onwards I'll start landing more

Round 3
Carlt vs Coll U175.5
Port vs Bris O182.5
Melb vs North O184.5
Syd vs GWS U175.5

 

[SM]

I'm worried if it tell totals will get moved before I get on
St vs adl this morning came out at 186, went to 193 in minutes
Happy to help with tgs
I work them Sunday night
Round 5 onwards I'll start landing more

Round 3
Carlt vs Coll U175.5
Port vs Bris O182.5
Melb vs North O184.5
Syd vs GWS U175.5

I'm sure mentioning them on here won't have that huge an impact on the market.

 

[Rocky Straight]

I'm sure mentioning them on here won't have that huge an impact on the market.

if all you blokes keep knocking them off Monday AM it will.

 

[tangolikelama]

Same game multi

Cats 1-39
Menzel 3+
Selwood 30+

$20 @ $12.50