AFL 2018 - AFL Round 20

[targett]

Dunn, Scharenberg, Wells, Reid are not in your top 15.



Hardly play ever because they're injury prone. The reason the Pies are doing so well this year is that they've blooded young fast players that are doing a better job than what the injured guys would be doing.

Treloar and De Goey (and Dunn for structural reasons) are the only real losses, Howe will play.

De Goey, Treloar, Dunn, Scharenberg, Howe are all best 22.who ever said Dunn and Scharenberg arnt hasnt much a clue. Dunn has been a revelation for the Pies down back and Scharenberg has been a walk up starter proven ...

 

[targett]

But the ones that have (De Goey, Treloar, Dunn, Scharenberg, Howe) are all more or less matchwinners for us? no?

No Brainer All these players available PLAY

 

[banana_bus]

If Dunn is a match winner for you then that says a lot about your squad.

 

[mookieb]

The Melb / GC game has the hallmarks of a slaughter.

Only 2 100 point losses this year, but both teams were involved with Melb smashing Carl and GC get killed by the Giants. Earlier this year Melb beat GC by 69 at the Gabba.

Melb is the highest scoring team vs GC the lowest. I expect GC to be dispirited following a loss to Carl in which they led by 19 points (so in effect a 54 point turnaround) to a terrible team racked by injuries playing on the road. Last time they copped a flogging at home by Geel the next game on the road they lost to GWS by 108 points.

Expect some token 1st qtr resistance, but the 2nd half is likely to be some big scores.

Melb -32.5 2nd half
Melb +33 margin 3rd qtr $4.5
Melb +33 margin 4th qtr $4.5
Melb -98.5 $4.80
Melb to win every quarter ($1.90) - seems very generous - could hedge a little on GC winning the 1st quarter at $5.5.

Only bonus bets for the bigger odds bets some no harm done if GC turn up.

 

[maskmcgee]

The system predicts:

Richmond -21.5
Hawthorn +4.5
Brisbane +5.5 (31% higher chance of winning than the odds suggest)
Port Adelaide -4.5
St. Kilda -4.5 (second highest confidence)
Collingwood +2.5 (Highest confidence in getting up)
Carlton +47.5 (As this is heavily calculated on recent form, if Cameron comes in and has a huge impact, the prediction will not have taken that into account)
Melbourne -58.5
Fremantle +35.5

It also suggests taking Hawthorn, Brisbane and Collingwood to win instead of the lines for higher odds.
Of course since these were predicted the lines have changed so you may not be able to get $1.90 on these any more.

In the last 4 weeks the predictions done on a Monday have got 30 out of 36 correct lines.

 

[Resarenco]

The system predicts:

Thanks for posting. Can't disagree with any of that. But many of them too close to call to bet on.

 

[brutus76]

Going with LB this week
Richmond v Geelong Under 164.5 @$1.88
Melbourne -59.5 @$1.67
GWS (roof on at Marvel and Cameron back) -49.5 @$1.92
Eagles 40+ @$1.98

A tenner to yield $119.35

 

[balmainforever]

Sorry for the lateness of odds.
Updated now.
Also poll has been changed for the last 2 games to the right numbers

 

[Prochard123]

The Melb / GC game has the hallmarks of a slaughter.

Only 2 100 point losses this year, but both teams were involved with Melb smashing Carl and GC get killed by the Giants. Earlier this year Melb beat GC by 69 at the Gabba.

Melb is the highest scoring team vs GC the lowest. I expect GC to be dispirited following a loss to Carl in which they led by 19 points (so in effect a 54 point turnaround) to a terrible team racked by injuries playing on the road. Last time they copped a flogging at home by Geel the next game on the road they lost to GWS by 108 points.

Expect some token 1st qtr resistance, but the 2nd half is likely to be some big scores.

Melb -32.5 2nd half
Melb +33 margin 3rd qtr $4.5
Melb +33 margin 4th qtr $4.5
Melb -98.5 $4.80
Melb to win every quarter ($1.90) - seems very generous - could hedge a little on GC winning the 1st quarter at $5.5.

Only bonus bets for the bigger odds bets some no harm done if GC turn up.

Where did you get Melbourne to win every quarter from?

 

[mookieb]

Where did you get Melbourne to win every quarter from?

TAB.

 

[mookieb]

The system predicts:

Richmond -21.5
Hawthorn +4.5
Brisbane +5.5 (31% higher chance of winning than the odds suggest)
Port Adelaide -4.5
St. Kilda -4.5 (second highest confidence)
Collingwood +2.5 (Highest confidence in getting up)
Carlton +47.5 (As this is heavily calculated on recent form, if Cameron comes in and has a huge impact, the prediction will not have taken that into account)
Melbourne -58.5
Fremantle +35.5

It also suggests taking Hawthorn, Brisbane and Collingwood to win instead of the lines for higher odds.
Of course since these were predicted the lines have changed so you may not be able to get $1.90 on these any more.

In the last 4 weeks the predictions done on a Monday have got 30 out of 36 correct lines.

So the games aren't accurate if key players come in after a break and perform?

 

[maskmcgee]

So the games aren't accurate if key players come in after a break and perform?

When a player who directly hits the scoreboard goes out at full fitness, dosen't play for 5 matches, then returns at full fitness, in a game with the line prediction being decided by less than a goal, then possibly.

 

[benji21]

Good weekend for betting potential.

Liking Richmond the minus, and will get on the last quarter line as well, looking at the over 3.5 goals last quarter, but want to see how the weather goes.

On the pies as well.

Others I'm still deciding on is west coast at the minus, Ross seems to have changed his game plan up possibly in preparation for the rule changes being thrown about which has led to us being carved up in the last few weeks.

Melbourne should win by 100

Adelaide and Brisbane waiting to see the teams.

 

[mookieb]

When a player who directly hits the scoreboard goes out at full fitness, dosen't play for 5 matches, then returns at full fitness, in a game with the line prediction being decided by less than a goal, then possibly.

So possibly Carl might cover or they also may not if Cameron plays well.

If a model simply doesn't take into account key events why put out a prediction for those games?

 

[Prochard123]

Interesting to see alot of "experts" on different sites tipping sydney

 

[Prochard123]

Richmond vs Geelong under 160 points total @ $2.07?

 

[maskmcgee]

So possibly Carl might cover or they also may not if Cameron plays well.

If a model simply doesn't take into account key events why put out a prediction for those games?

Look I know you're mad that this system has made a shitload of profit over the last 4 weeks, and that you're mad you ignored the 5 lines i posted on Saturday, 4 of which were, according to the poll, underdog lines, all of which were correct, so by all means continue to ignore the predictions and continue losing huge amounts of money each week.

 

[iluvparis]

Isn't the whole point of lines that there is no underdog?

 

[Keystone agony]

Have to be way of the big blowouts a cocktail that can happen when:

Teams are so even fighting for top 4/8 that percentage becomes so important

with

A team that can no longer make finals and doesnt have a whole lot to play for

Im sure markets are adjusted a bit for this but maybe not enough.

Not many issues this week. Melbourne and GWS but theyre both sides i think could come out half asleep just to get the job done. Maybe slow start string finish types

 

[mookieb]

Look I know you're mad that this system has made a shitload of profit over the last 4 weeks, and that you're mad you ignored the 5 lines i posted on Saturday, 4 of which were, according to the poll, underdog lines, all of which were correct, so by all means continue to ignore the predictions and continue losing huge amounts of money each week.

So you think i'm mad?

I don't think my gambling philosophy extends to ignoring my own betting picks and instead slavishly following the picks of some random who posts on BF about a "system" that isn't his and where you can't explain it if someone asks a question.

But if you tell us who has devised the system I would certainly be keen to have a look unless it's a state secret.

 

[Keystone agony]

1U Grundy over Gawn
1U Whitfield over Laird
1U J.Kelly over Oliver

Fantasy lines crownbet h2h @1.87 price moved in nows

1U Darling <88.5 (Without JJK and with A.Pearce/Hamling) - only once over in last 5 games and was an easy win against buldogs

 

[chrisdon16]

Look I know you're mad that this system has made a shitload of profit over the last 4 weeks, and that you're mad you ignored the 5 lines i posted on Saturday, 4 of which were, according to the poll, underdog lines, all of which were correct, so by all means continue to ignore the predictions and continue losing huge amounts of money each week.

Not going to mention your 3 losses on Sunday? You sound like VegasDave. That's not a good thing...

Why are you so emotionally attached to this random system?

 

[maskmcgee]

Isn't the whole point of lines that there is no underdog?

So how come fewer people tipped Geelong at the line in the poll than Brisbane at the line? Making them the underdog as fewer people think that is going to get up.

 

[The GOAT]

Really like sydney, Collingwood looked tired and have lots out.

 

[come on oliver]

Really like sydney, Collingwood looked tired and have lots out.

You couldn’t back Swans with any confidence