AFL 2019 - AFL Round 5

[mouncey2franklin]

Going all out with the game today. Ten units on this match.

Poor bankroll management? Probably.

But if I end up with egg on my face today then I might give the punting a miss for the next few weeks.

I have other things I should be doing anyway.

---

Total points line at 178.5 seems outrageously low to me.

i) Last two matches between these teams have gone 230+.

ii) North's defence is still a shambles. No way we contain AMT and Fantasia. At least one will get off the leash.

iiii) Essendon's bruise-free footy will suit Hall and Polec. Expect inside-50s galore.

iv) This fixture could become 'marquee'. Football is a business. Is either coach dumb enough to lock the game down?

---

Check out the odds for Fantasia 2g ($2.4), 3g ($4), 4g ($10). Juicy AF.

i) Has kicked 10 goals in three matches against North. We are his bunny.

ii) Kicked two goals in both matches coming into this game.

iii) No Marley Williams, Sam Wright playing his first match this season. Fantasia will probably be minded by Pittard (okay) or Atley (iffy) or Macmillan (huge trouble for North).

---

Most disposals: Merrett

i) Has built nicely this year: 16, 28, 26, 35

ii) Good form against North: 2018 = 32; 2017 = 33; 2018 = 36.

iii) Brad Scotts won't tag him, and couldn't even if he wanted to, because we'll be stretched for stoppers as it is.

---

My bets (all SB)

1U total points > 200.5 @ 4
.5U total points > 220.5 @ 11
.4U total points > 230.5 @ 23
.1U total points > 240.5 @ 71

-2U

2U Fantasia 2+ goals @ 2.37
1U Fantasia 3+ goals @ 4
.5U Fantasia 4+ goals @ 10
.5U Fantasia most goals @ 10

+15U

1U Multi: Merrett 30+ disposals, Fantasia 3+ goals, total points > 178.5 @ 15.5
[-1U]
.5U Most disp (Merrett) / most goals (Fantasia) @ $36 (was @41 a moment before I put bet on)
[+17U]
.5U Multi: Merrett 30+ disposals, AMT 3+ goals, total points > 220.5 @ 61.5
[-1U]

2U straight up on North @ 2.20 (genuine 50/50 game and North have big first quarters, SB 12+ promo looks good)
[-1U]

Absolutely stooged by the poor kicking. Five points away from a 15U payout on the multi. ****.

There was still 2.30 on the clock and all that was needed was a goal. Last two I50s from North were abysmal.

Still, 10U total bet, 37U total return, 27U profit for the match.

But it was so close to a 42U profit. ****.

 

[Mazza1234678]

Essendon for me today

Will probably leave the later game,

Bang

Had a fair bit on that

 

[Mazza1234678]

Drainage is superb at Optus and rain is clearing

Eagles line and overs all the way here

 

[Rowd072]

Over 140 is $1.66. That is not a lot of points. Radar looks pretty clear. People in WA thoughts?

 

[Sprams]

Over 140 is $1.66. That is not a lot of points. Radar looks pretty clear. People in WA thoughts?

Just saw live pictures of the ground on Fox Footy and looks clear.

 

[free at last]

Over 140 is $1.66. That is not a lot of points. Radar looks pretty clear. People in WA thoughts?

Just chatted with a mate who's at the ground-blue skies at the moment apparently.
Radar looks pretty clear too.

 

[mac23]

Brad Ebert FGS 0.5U @31 Ladbrokes boost

 

[mouncey2franklin]

Brad Ebert FGS 0.5U @31 Ladbrokes boost

Any particular reason?

 

[benji21]

Brad Ebert FGS 0.5U @31 Ladbrokes boost

@2 on Lads for ATGS if you fancy

 

[mac23]

Any particular reason?

Has slotted Ports first in 2/4 just seems overs at the odds in a very open market

 

[andwhenitcomes]

All over Ebert too, price too high for a full time forward.

Brad Ebert AGS @ 2.00 (Neds)
Brad Ebert 2+ @ 5.10 (Topsport)
Brad Ebert 3+ @ 17.00 (Topsport)

Todd Marshall (1.83 AGS, 5.10 2+, 18.00 3+) also a little overpriced but a bit more wary about WC's tall defenders and possible showers.

Imagine overs comes in, also don't mind second half highest scoring @ 1.79 too considering there's a little patch of rain that looks like it's close to hitting Perth.

 

[mac23]

All over Ebert too, price too high for a full time forward.

Brad Ebert AGS @ 2.00 (Neds)
Brad Ebert 2+ @ 5.10 (Topsport)
Brad Ebert 3+ @ 17.00 (Topsport)

Todd Marshall (1.83 AGS, 5.10 2+, 18.00 3+) also a little overpriced but a bit more wary about WC's tall defenders and possible showers.

Imagine overs comes in, also don't mind second half highest scoring @ 1.79 too considering there's a little patch of rain that looks like it's close to hitting Perth.

Agreed I’m on for AGS too mate has goaled in 3/4 and went 0.2 in that miss so I’ll give him every chance

 

[mouncey2franklin]

Only because I had a good day with the North match, and I am dumb enough to listen to advice from people on this forum*:

*No offense guys, I love you all.

1U Multi: West Coast -23.5; Ebert AGS @ $4
.2U Mult: West Coast 40+; Ebert 3+ goals @$141

.5U Ebert 2+ goals @5
.5 U Ebert 3+ goals @15
.5U Ebert FGS @ 21

All SB

 

[mouncey2franklin]

.5U Ebert FGS @ 21

Well at least I was smart enough to keep it to 0.5U.

 

[benji21]

Ebert holding some weight now! haha

 

[andwhenitcomes]

The great man.

 

[mac23]

Get around the man!

 

[benji21]

Ebert holding some weight now! haha

And still hits it

 

[GROTTO]

Only because I had a good day with the North match, and I am dumb enough to listen to advice from people on this forum*:

*No offense guys, I love you all.

1U Multi: West Coast -23.5; Ebert AGS @ $4
.2U Mult: West Coast 40+; Ebert 3+ goals @$141

.5U Ebert 2+ goals @5
.5 U Ebert 3+ goals @15
.5U Ebert FGS @ 21

All SB

Very unlucky with Ebert FGS, had a decent chance with the first I50 of the game.

 

[langdon19]

There will be no rain during the game

Every year someone reckons they can predict the weather

 

[Atavistic]

Port ruining all multis...

 

[GROTTO]

Eagles paying $17 at HT for the win.

Port were paying $41 for 40+ before the game.

 

[andwhenitcomes]

Over 143.5 @ 1.88 (Sportsbet) at HT. Radar looks clear.

 

[demon_fanatic]

L

But if I end up with egg on my face today then I might give the punting a miss for the next few weeks
ii) North's defence is still a shambles. No way we contain AMT and Fantasia. At least one will get off the leash.

iiii) Essendon's bruise-free footy will suit Hall and Polec. Expect inside-50s galore.

iv) This fixture could become 'marquee'. Football is a business. Is either coach dumb enough to lock the game down?

---

Check out the odds for Fantasia 2g ($2.4), 3g ($4), 4g ($10). Juicy AF.

i) Has kicked 10 goals in three matches against North. We are h

ii) Kicked two goals in both matches coming into this game.

iii) No Marley Williams, Sam Wright playing his first match this season. Fantasia will probably be minded by Pittard (okay) or Atley (iffy) or Macmillan (huge trouble for North).

---

Most disposals: Merrett

i) Has built nicely this year: 16, 28, 26, 35

ii) Good form against North: 2018 = 32; 2017 = 33; 2018 = 36.

iii) Brad Scotts won't tag him, and couldn't even if he wanted to, because we'll be stretched for stoppers as it is.

---

My bets (all SB)

1U total points > 200.5 @ 4
.5U total points > 220.5 @ 11
.4U total points > 230.5 @ 23
.1U total points > 240.5 @ 71

2U Fantasia 2+ goals @ 2.37
1U Fantasia 3+ goals @ 4
.5U Fantasia 4+ goals @ 10
.5U Fantasia most goals @ 10

1U Multi: Merrett 30+ disposals, Fantasia 3+ goals, total points > 178.5 @ 15.5
.5U Most disp (Merrett) / most goals (Fantasia) @ $36 (was @41 a moment before I put bet on)
.5U Multi: Merrett 30+ disposals, AMT 3+ goals, total points > 220.5 @ 61.5

2U straight up on North @ 2.20 (genuine 50/50 game and North have big first quarters, SB 12+ promo looks good)[/QUOTE]

 

[demon_fanatic]

God nice kick Powell pepper,Watch this match not hit over 145.5 come on eagles you're down 50 ditch the boundry slow play bs