- Jun 16, 2018
- 8,939
- 15,993
- AFL Club
- North Melbourne
Going all out with the game today. Ten units on this match.
Poor bankroll management? Probably.
But if I end up with egg on my face today then I might give the punting a miss for the next few weeks.
I have other things I should be doing anyway.
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Total points line at 178.5 seems outrageously low to me.
i) Last two matches between these teams have gone 230+.
ii) North's defence is still a shambles. No way we contain AMT and Fantasia. At least one will get off the leash.
iiii) Essendon's bruise-free footy will suit Hall and Polec. Expect inside-50s galore.
iv) This fixture could become 'marquee'. Football is a business. Is either coach dumb enough to lock the game down?
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Check out the odds for Fantasia 2g ($2.4), 3g ($4), 4g ($10). Juicy AF.
i) Has kicked 10 goals in three matches against North. We are his bunny.
ii) Kicked two goals in both matches coming into this game.
iii) No Marley Williams, Sam Wright playing his first match this season. Fantasia will probably be minded by Pittard (okay) or Atley (iffy) or Macmillan (huge trouble for North).
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Most disposals: Merrett
i) Has built nicely this year: 16, 28, 26, 35
ii) Good form against North: 2018 = 32; 2017 = 33; 2018 = 36.
iii) Brad Scotts won't tag him, and couldn't even if he wanted to, because we'll be stretched for stoppers as it is.
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My bets (all SB)
1U total points > 200.5 @ 4
.5U total points > 220.5 @ 11
.4U total points > 230.5 @ 23
.1U total points > 240.5 @ 71
-2U
2U Fantasia 2+ goals @ 2.37
1U Fantasia 3+ goals @ 4
.5U Fantasia 4+ goals @ 10
.5U Fantasia most goals @ 10
+15U
1U Multi: Merrett 30+ disposals, Fantasia 3+ goals, total points > 178.5 @ 15.5
[-1U]
.5U Most disp (Merrett) / most goals (Fantasia) @ $36 (was @41 a moment before I put bet on)
[+17U]
.5U Multi: Merrett 30+ disposals, AMT 3+ goals, total points > 220.5 @ 61.5
[-1U]
2U straight up on North @ 2.20 (genuine 50/50 game and North have big first quarters, SB 12+ promo looks good)
[-1U]
Absolutely stooged by the poor kicking. Five points away from a 15U payout on the multi. ****.
There was still 2.30 on the clock and all that was needed was a goal. Last two I50s from North were abysmal.
Still, 10U total bet, 37U total return, 27U profit for the match.
But it was so close to a 42U profit. ****.