AFL 2019 - AFL Round 5

[bettingonbetts]

Zorko over 22.5 looks like a shoe in at 1.98

 

[cznsnowy91]

I went $100 neale 33+ and Brisbane win at 5s with lads. Also have a smaller bet on lions straight up with beteasy double winnings promo. Should be a good game!

 

[mouncey2franklin]

0.5U: Coll lead at qtr time then lose @ $6.50
0.5U: Brisbane SU @ $2.15
0.5U: Lachie Neale most disposals / Varcoe most goals @ $67 [Varcoe kicked four against Brisbane last year]
0.5U: Margin 2nd half Brisbane 37+ @ $17

All SB.

 

[JuniorWatch]

Zorko over 22.5 looks like a shoe in at 1.98

Only gone over that once this year.
Unless he's playing pure mid tonight?

 

[qarocks]

I put $90 on:
Ess +13.5
GWS -59.5
Cats +8.5
@6.18
Confident on ess and geelong, both should win - just need gws to do a number.

 

[qarocks]

Only gone over that once this year.
Unless he's playing pure mid tonight?

Collingwood don’t tend to tag anyone, so Zorko should be free to rack up a few touches. Neale might pinch a few, but Zorko can go close for sure

 

[csnody]

Collingwood don’t tend to tag anyone, so Zorko should be free to rack up a few touches. Neale might pinch a few, but Zorko can go close for sure

I know they don't tag but lol why would they tag Zorko over Neale??

 

[chrisdon16]

St. Kilda +16.5 ($1.91 Beteasy)

 

[Red Dog Styles]

I put $90 on:
Ess +13.5
GWS -59.5
Cats +8.5
@6.18
Confident on ess and geelong, both should win - just need gws to do a number.

Thats good for 6$ odds.
Might tail however with reduced GWS line

On SM-G930F using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[mookieb]

Disagree with a bit of this.

Bris were 1W 6L at home vs top 8 last year so relatively uncompetitive at home vs top teams.

As another poster mentioned their wins have been against a WC team that didn't turn up after quarter time, they overran a weak NM team and overran a Port team with injuries to Gray and Rockliff that subsequently lost to a weak Rich team at home. You're right that Coll aren't travelling well - been ordinary in 3 of 4 games but they're a top 4 team and should beat Bris who I don't think will make finals.

If you like Bris small forwards what about De Goey, Elliott, Thomas, Stephenson and Varcoe?

With a big crowd, Beams return and both sides disappointing last week then I expect both teams to be pumped up.

Might be some good value hedging. Coll are very fast starters this year (limited sample size obviously) and Bris have been poor (1 vs 16). SB promo on Coll or Bris come out firing after the Ess debacle and a big crowd? Neale 33 touches and Bris win at $5 looks fantastic value as does Bris 1-39 at $3 if you like the Lions.

Amazed Greenwood isn't playing. Shut down Dusty then plays but no tagging job and gets dropped. Then Bont destroys Coll and now Neale on fire and will be able to run free.

I reckon Syd midfield has been ordinary for a long time. Middle of last season on they just didn't generate enough I50's. Syd backline has certainly gotten worse and they're not kicking goals. With Dusty back and Houli and at the MCG I expect they'll cover the line.

I've found that teams coming off 2 very bad losses then have a breakout game tend to follow it up the next week. I don't expect Rich to be flat and Syd shouldn't be either I just think that Syd's form might well mirror where they are at rather than poor form.

As above think Melb will kick on with some momentum after last week. Not that impressed with the Saints - just beat Hawks without 4 midfielders and 2 backs down for the game. They've been solid for 4 games so surely a down game is on the cards.

I'm thinking that the signs are there that the glory period for weak teams is over.

Bris x 2 shockers. Saints lucky last week with odds against the Hawks. Port losing to a very weak Rich team at home. GC should have lost to Carl.

I'm on the favs to start turning the ship around.

 

[Keystone agony]

1U Brisbane 1-39 @3
1U Witherden over Rich
1U Crisp over Robinson
1U Zorko (-12.5) over Mcluggage
1U Rich U86.5
1U J.Lyons U86.5
0.6U C.Brown AGS @3.25 lads
1U Grundy U115.5
1U Neale u120.5
1u Trelaor U109.5

If i win 7 of these from the 10 ill be stoked which is the case at 3qtr time

 

[Keystone agony]

+1.7 Units another good night

 

[demon_fanatic]

Disagree with a bit of this.

Bris were 1W 6L at home vs top 8 last year so relatively uncompetitive at home vs top teams.

As another poster mentioned their wins have been against a WC team that didn't turn up after quarter time, they overran a weak NM team and overran a Port team with injuries to Gray and Rockliff that subsequently lost to a weak Rich team at home. You're right that Coll aren't travelling well - been ordinary in 3 of 4 games but they're a top 4 team and should beat Bris who I don't think will make finals.

If you like Bris small forwards what about De Goey, Elliott, Thomas, Stephenson and Varcoe?

With a big crowd, Beams return and both sides disappointing last week then I expect both teams to be pumped up.

Might be some good value hedging. Coll are very fast starters this year (limited sample size obviously) and Bris have been poor (1 vs 16). SB promo on Coll or Bris come out firing after the Ess debacle and a big crowd? Neale 33 touches and Bris win at $5 looks fantastic value as does Bris 1-39 at $3 if you like the Lions.

Amazed Greenwood isn't playing. Shut down Dusty then plays but no tagging job and gets dropped. Then Bont destroys Coll and now Neale on fire and will be able to run free.

I reckon Syd midfield has been ordinary for a long time. Middle of last season on they just didn't generate enough I50's. Syd backline has certainly gotten worse and they're not kicking goals. With Dusty back and Houli and at the MCG I expect they'll cover the line.

I've found that teams coming off 2 very bad losses then have a breakout game tend to follow it up the next week. I don't expect Rich to be flat and Syd shouldn't be either I just think that Syd's form might well mirror where they are at rather than poor form.

As above think Melb will kick on with some momentum after last week. Not that impressed with the Saints - just beat Hawks without 4 midfielders and 2 backs down for the game. They've been solid for 4 games so surely a down game is on the cards.

Fair sure Syd rich is at marvel as dees stk is mcg

 

[freo_leo29]

3U Matt Taberner 2 goals @5 Bet365
Done it 3/4 games this season

1U Taberner 3 goals @19 kicked 2.3.2 last weekend, worth a punt at that price

 

[Keystone agony]

3U Matt Taberner 2 goals @5 Bet365
Done it 3/4 games this season

1U Taberner 3 goals @19 kicked 2.3.2 last weekend, worth a punt at that price

do they do anytime goal scorer they do aye

 

[Keystone agony]

Going hard in eagles vs Port game

4U Ebert U93.5 lads 1.88
1U Darling 1.62 more goals than Westhoff TAB
1U Rocky U34.5 disp 1.96 PB
1U Boak U31.5 disp 1.92 PB
1U Ebert U 22.5 disp 1.87 SB
1U Burton U22.5 disp 1.87 SB
2U Rozee U66 5 @1.88 PB

Think Hoff could spend time on a wing more this week.

Predicting easy eagles win and in wet hard scoeing for disposals. Rocky or Boak to get aggressive Hutchings tag.

Sheppard - Gray
Barrass & Mcgovern - Ryder/Marshall
Jetta - Butters
Duggan - Rozee
Hurn - Ebert
T.Cole - S.Gray

Expected matchups

 

[freo_leo29]

do they do anytime goal scorer they do aye

For some reason their AGS odds are always absolutely terrible, like 1.22 for the first 30 players (both teams) then 1.80 for like key defenders

 

[adammania9]

0.5U: Coll lead at qtr time then lose @ $6.50
0.5U: Brisbane SU @ $2.15
0.5U: Lachie Neale most disposals / Varcoe most goals @ $67 [Varcoe kicked four against Brisbane last year]
0.5U: Margin 2nd half Brisbane 37+ @ $17

All SB.

Think you misread Varcoe's four goals there, he kicked those against Sydney the previous week

 

[Robo87]

3U Matt Taberner 2 goals @5 Bet365
Done it 3/4 games this season

1U Taberner 3 goals @19 kicked 2.3.2 last weekend, worth a punt at that price

like it again, but a little worried gws might dominate too much & therefore a lack of forward opportunities for freo, (altho i haven't watched a freo game yet this year).

 

[freo_leo29]

like it again, but a little worried gws might dominate too much & therefore a lack of forward opportunities for freo, (altho i haven't watched a freo game yet this year).

Its a worry but he did have 7 shots on goal against the reigning premiers which gives me a little more confidence

 

[Jimmy69r]

Dont get sucked into betting the under on tonight's west coast game. There will be no rain during the game and this brand new stadium as we saw last year can handle the weather. Port plays as loose as a goose. Best bet total band 151-175. Cheers

 

[RooTed]

#AFL #bettingtips

R5 Good Friday Games

1u #aflnorthdons TGS o175.5 $1.91 B365
1u #afleaglespower TGS o149.5 $1.91 B365
Strong lean WC 1-39

Last night 1-2 -0.12u

GL

 

[2notepockets]

Most disposals

GRP 1:
Redden 1U @ 26
Boak 1U @ 4
J Kelly 1U @ 9
B Hill 0.5U @ 26
Ross 1U @ 4.5
Viney 0.5 U @ 36
Hunter 1U @ 8
Simpson 0.5U @ 17
Laird 1U @ 4.5
Danger 1U @ 3.4

GRP 2:
Shaw 0.5U @ 21
N Jones 1U @ 8
Webster 0.5U @ 12
Ross 0.5U @ 8.5
Dunkley 1U @ 23
E Curnow 1U @ 7.5
Gibbs 1U @ 2.88
Duncan 1U @ 3.3

 

[langdon19]

There will be no rain during the game

How do you know this?

 

[csnody]

Looks like we could see a bit of rain before the game. Looks to be clearing up. But by this looks like up to 5mm accumulation 6 hours before the game.