AFL 2019 - AFL Round 6

[TheJanuaryMan]

David Swallow 30+ @ 13.00 (Sportsbet)
Done it twice already in 2019.

Jarryd Lyons 30+ @ 56.00 (Sportsbet)
Very quiet this year, but worth a small flutter.

I like the first one, but Lyons will need 2 games to get to 30+ I reckon - disappointing for us so far, although might fire up against old club I suppose.

 

[adammania9]

Orazio Fantasia paying $2.88 for 2 or more goals on SB. Has done it in his last 3 matches.

Also kicked 5 and 4 in his last two games against the Pies, although those were in 2017

 

[JuniorWatch]

Some things to consider for tomorrows game:
Treloar over 99.5 SC at Lads $1.87 (i'm 4/4 on these and this one looks particularly tasty)
Treloar SC Group $7 at Lads.
Shiel AGS $4 at Lads (speculative, has had 7 shots this year for 0.5 and 2 missed. Can't kick in fwd half but has nice hair).
Merrett AGS $3.75 at Lads.

 

[chrisdon16]

Goodwin concentrated on getting the defence right during the week which was understandable considering the dees were averaging over 100 against. Better defensively but that was a shocker offensively they're a rabble at the moment. This is one of the biggest capitulations of recent times. Best offense last season to this.

Stop talking them up iluvparis

 

[demon_fanatic]

Dees get 11 days off to sort something out but Hawks moved into 1.70 from 2.10 to defeat them next round, still seems good if Shiels Burgoyne return, Viney could have some actual damage too.

 

[Keystone agony]

Can tell you right now that moving your 3 best onballers out of the onball to start Hibberd in there isnt the solution.

Didnt mind Mcdonald going back but that was about it.

For me that easy easily Melbournes worse performance of the year but maybe im the only one. How many goals did they kick after qtr time? and one was only due to a 50m penalty

Sportsbet have started offering decent Goal scoring prices now they mustve lost alot of traffic there theyve substantially increased them. Great for us punters

 

[Keystone agony]

0.2u Fantasia 2 Goals @2.88 SB
0.1u Fantasia 3 Goals @6 SB
0.2u Brown 2 Goals @5 SB
0.1u Brown 3 Goals @13 SB
0.2u Baguley AGS @2.05 Lads
0.2u Cal Brown AGS @2.3 Lads
0.2u Josh Thomas 2 Goals @4.5 Bet365
0.2u D.Smith 2 Goals @9 SB
1U Z.Merrett over Shiel @1.87 SB

I like all these and recent goals back this up. Expecting a pretty high scoring game tomorrow. Weather looks absolutely divine for football. No wind and dry conditions

 

[bettingonbetts]

Hellboy101 i know it was a rough night but let me know what ya get on tomorrow

 

[Hellboy101]

SGM: Mitch Brown 2 goals, Stephenson AGS, Beams under 27.5 @ 14.25 1u

SGM: Brown 2 goals, Stephenson 2 goals, Beams under 27.5 & total goals over 25.5 @ 43.25. 0.2u

 

[bettingonbetts]

SGM: Mitch Brown 2 goals, Stephenson AGS, Beams under 27.5 @ 14.25 1u

SGM: Brown 2 goals, Stephenson 2 goals, Beams under 27.5 & total goals over 25.5 @ 43.25. 0.2u

love you

 

[Ohh Ok]

Wow, that was tight as. Looks like you got Brayshaw by .5 points and missed Oliver by .5.

Shouldn't have been that tight. Can thank Melbourne's coaching staff for them not clearing those lines easily. Brayshaw spent the entire game on the wing rather than midfield and Oliver spent a lot of time forward.

Also Brayshaw didn't score in the last 10 minutes because he went forward until the final 2 minutes.

Yep. That absolutely shits me. If they both get allowed to do what they do best, both clear easily. Beat the closing odds/lines for both bets so have to take that as a positive in finding the value

 

[Distinctive_]

New to this board, anyone able to quickly explain 0.5U or 1U etc. Assume this means units? As in dollars?

 

[NonPhixion]

New to this board, anyone able to quickly explain 0.5U or 1U etc. Assume this means units? As in dollars?

Units are just bet sizes that relate to a % of your bankroll

 

[Keystone agony]

Expecting a pretty high disposal, High fantasy, high scoring game today.

 

[tangolikelama]

Don't mind Crisp as an outsider for the medal $34

 

[karaoke]

Anybody else getting a discounted price on SB same game multi’s?

Getting 35.00, when it should be ~41.0

 

[squeaky1000]

Merret over 105.5 fantasy $1.80 pointsbet under 115.5 $1.87 sportsbet

 

[Butler]

Merret over 105.5 fantasy $1.80 pointsbet under 115.5 $1.87 sportsbet

Surely gets the Greenwood tag.

 

[mouncey2franklin]

New to this board, anyone able to quickly explain 0.5U or 1U etc. Assume this means units? As in dollars?

Basically, it is about 'bankroll management'.

The common theory among punters is that the best long-term strategy is to have a known bankroll, the amount you are willing to bet with over a period of time.

Whatever that bankroll is, a 'unit' is 1% of the bankroll.

So suppose you are willing to punt with $1,000 for the season, a '1U' bet is $10.

You might have a few good weeks and find yourself on $1,200 total bankroll. You can either stick to the $10 per unit or adjust it to suit your new bankroll.

I'm not sure what most people on this forum are doing in that regard.

Either way, by limiting yourself to just a few units of punting per match/round, you limit the wild variances which can happen with gambling.

It means you can win less on any given match/round, but also means you can lose less.

And anybody who has ever been on tilt after an unlucky loss, or gotten carried away after a big win and made silly big bets trying to 'ride it', knows how important bankroll management is.

For me personally, I had a very good weekend last weekend, ended up about 20 units or so. But for the season prior to that I was down almost 10 units (IIRC). The other benefit of this method is that it makes it very easy to 'keep track' of your overall success/failure.

tl;dr

For most punters on this forum 1U is probably $1-$10, and it is supposed to be 1% of their total bankroll, and the idea is to limit one's potential losses due to bad luck or bad betting. A confident bet will be around 2U, speculative bets will be more like .1-.5 units.

 

[banana_bus]

That $1.50 last night was unbelievable. Laying the Dees this year will make you a very rich man.

 

[mouncey2franklin]

Fantasia came through for me last weekend. I'm not as confident this weekend because he seems to have a better track record at the Dome than the 'G but his recent form over the past few weeks and recent form against Collingwood are too good to ignore.

1U 2g+ @ 2.63
.5U 3g+ @ 5
.3U 4g+ @ 13
.2U 5g+ @ 46

He'll get a better defender minding him today than Macmillan last week. And Collingwood are simply a much better team than North. I'd settle for two goals and a small profit but at the very least this should make the game more exciting.

And a few small multis. Like Phillips for 30+, total points over the line, and Essendon are value in a 50/50. Coll very inconsistent this year.

.4U Multi: Ess +9.5, total points over 176.5, Phillips 25+, Fantasia AGS @ 7.5
.3U Multi: Ess 1-29, Philips 30+, Fantasia 2g+ @ 25.75
.3U Multi: Ess 25+, Philips 25+, total points over 176.5, Fantasia 3g+ @ 53.5

All SB. Total 3U.

 

[Leeroy Brown 15]

Ladbrokes: De Goey to kick a goal in both halves $1.90

 

[iluvparis]

Goodwin concentrated on getting the defence right during the week which was understandable considering the dees were averaging over 100 against. Better defensively but that was a shocker offensively they're a rabble at the moment. This is one of the biggest capitulations of recent times. Best offense last season to this.

Stop talking them up iluvparis

Biggest capitulations in recent times. L O L. Only for the insane out there who had already penciled them in for a decade long juggernaut.

They were a middling team last year who got a couple of down teams in finals before being truly exposed in a prelim slaughter.

They were never that good and are being rightfully found out for who they actually are this year.

 

[iluvparis]

Anybody else getting a discounted price on SB same game multi’s?

Getting 35.00, when it should be ~41.0

They will always reduce the odds if some of the events are related. So if you take de goey to kick 3+ or something and Collingwood 40+ you will get lower odds as if de goey kicks 3 it’s more likely collingwood win by 40 +

 

[Distinctive_]

Basically, it is about 'bankroll management'.

The common theory among punters is that the best long-term strategy is to have a known bankroll, the amount you are willing to bet with over a period of time.

Whatever that bankroll is, a 'unit' is 1% of the bankroll.

So suppose you are willing to punt with $1,000 for the season, a '1U' bet is $10.

You might have a few good weeks and find yourself on $1,200 total bankroll. You can either stick to the $10 per unit or adjust it to suit your new bankroll.

I'm not sure what most people on this forum are doing in that regard.

Either way, by limiting yourself to just a few units of punting per match/round, you limit the wild variances which can happen with gambling.

It means you can win less on any given match/round, but also means you can lose less.

And anybody who has ever been on tilt after an unlucky loss, or gotten carried away after a big win and made silly big bets trying to 'ride it', knows how important bankroll management is.

For me personally, I had a very good weekend last weekend, ended up about 20 units or so. But for the season prior to that I was down almost 10 units (IIRC). The other benefit of this method is that it makes it very easy to 'keep track' of your overall success/failure.

tl;dr

For most punters on this forum 1U is probably $1-$10, and it is supposed to be 1% of their total bankroll, and the idea is to limit one's potential losses due to bad luck or bad betting. A confident bet will be around 2U, speculative bets will be more like .1-.5 units.

Thanks mate! Very helpful and glad to be aboard