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- Thread starter samFFC
- Start date
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I am, but a full pre-season should get him rising in value on last years rotter.
Alright, so I think I've gotta butt in to all this 'keeper' talk, and point out again that only Titch and Jelly started both this season and last season in the top 10 midfielders -
The remaining 9 were:
Danger
Zerrett
Ablett
Dusty
Adams
Zorko
Jelly
Duncan
Gibbs
The top 10 come season's end were:
Titch
Macrae
Gaff
Cogs
Cripps
Oliver
Jelly
Treloar
Ross
Yeo
*************
The top 10 forwards at the start of last season were:
Menegola
Barlow
Buddy
Billings
Wingard
Heeney
Greene
Boak
Lynch
Dahlhaus
The top 10 come season's end were:
Dangerfield
Devon Smith
Westhoff
Menegola
Dunkley
McLean
Buddy
Heeney
McDonald
Mundy
***********
The top 4 rucks at the start of the season were:
Grundy
Kreuzer
Martin
Jacobs
The top 4 rucks come season's end were:
Grundy
Gawn
Westhoff
Martin
*************
And finally, the top 10 defenders at the start of last season were:
Docherty
Laird
Yeo
Simpson
Hurley
Hibberd
Lloyd
Houli
Roberton
Howe
And the top 10 defenders come season's end were:
Laird
Yeo
Brayshaw
Lloyd
Whitfield
Sicily
Simpson
Blakely
Hurn
Witherden
************
This means that of the 34 players people thought were 'keepers' at the start of the year, only 11 were 'keepers. That's essentially a 33% hit rate. Obviously things like DPP for Westhoff, Brayshaw, Danger, Whit and Yeo have to be taken into account, but that still only brings the count to 16 out of 34. Meaning that, if you pick a keeper from last season, there is more than a 50% chance that it won't be a keeper come season's end.
This is sort of why this whole argument keeps getting lost on me. As long as you think that they will be a keeper for a good duration of the season (until you can make a luxury trade around Round 15 or 16), then that should be enough. Instead of having 11-14 proposed keepers on the basis of where they finished last season, you need to predict who you're going to have in your team on the basis of the role that they'll play in your team this season.
If you think that players like Taranto, Higgins, Sheed Worpel, Newnes, Williams, Smith etc. can all push for top 6-12 (not many finish the season with an exact 22 best priced players), then pick them on that basis. If I picked my team last season on the basis of the final 22 at the end of the season, it would have been a catastrophe (especially the mids)
That's just my two cents and could blow up in my face, but historic data says that changes in roles, teams, rules etc. drastically alter the fantasy scores of those previously considered to be 'locks' or 'keepers.'
The remaining 9 were:
Danger
Zerrett
Ablett
Dusty
Adams
Zorko
Jelly
Duncan
Gibbs
The top 10 come season's end were:
Titch
Macrae
Gaff
Cogs
Cripps
Oliver
Jelly
Treloar
Ross
Yeo
*************
The top 10 forwards at the start of last season were:
Menegola
Barlow
Buddy
Billings
Wingard
Heeney
Greene
Boak
Lynch
Dahlhaus
The top 10 come season's end were:
Dangerfield
Devon Smith
Westhoff
Menegola
Dunkley
McLean
Buddy
Heeney
McDonald
Mundy
***********
The top 4 rucks at the start of the season were:
Grundy
Kreuzer
Martin
Jacobs
The top 4 rucks come season's end were:
Grundy
Gawn
Westhoff
Martin
*************
And finally, the top 10 defenders at the start of last season were:
Docherty
Laird
Yeo
Simpson
Hurley
Hibberd
Lloyd
Houli
Roberton
Howe
And the top 10 defenders come season's end were:
Laird
Yeo
Brayshaw
Lloyd
Whitfield
Sicily
Simpson
Blakely
Hurn
Witherden
************
This means that of the 34 players people thought were 'keepers' at the start of the year, only 11 were 'keepers. That's essentially a 33% hit rate. Obviously things like DPP for Westhoff, Brayshaw, Danger, Whit and Yeo have to be taken into account, but that still only brings the count to 16 out of 34. Meaning that, if you pick a keeper from last season, there is more than a 50% chance that it won't be a keeper come season's end.
This is sort of why this whole argument keeps getting lost on me. As long as you think that they will be a keeper for a good duration of the season (until you can make a luxury trade around Round 15 or 16), then that should be enough. Instead of having 11-14 proposed keepers on the basis of where they finished last season, you need to predict who you're going to have in your team on the basis of the role that they'll play in your team this season.
If you think that players like Taranto, Higgins, Sheed Worpel, Newnes, Williams, Smith etc. can all push for top 6-12 (not many finish the season with an exact 22 best priced players), then pick them on that basis. If I picked my team last season on the basis of the final 22 at the end of the season, it would have been a catastrophe (especially the mids)
That's just my two cents and could blow up in my face, but historic data says that changes in roles, teams, rules etc. drastically alter the fantasy scores of those previously considered to be 'locks' or 'keepers.'
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JDWCE
Norm Smith Medallist
Benjo_
Further to this, Saints board has Newnes playing wing on every iteration of their best 22. Acres has had no pre season and is likely to fill the void in their forward line more so than anywhere else. Stevens plays predominately rover according to them as well so if he comes back in shouldn't affect Newnes spot. Still risky but less so than Worpel
I mean I think that is what's happening. At least for me I'm picking 'keepers' based on where I think they will finish this year while taking last seasons data into account. I've got Lloyd, Cogs, Cripps, Brayshaw, M.Crouch, Grundy, Gawn, Danger, Dunkley, Heeney and Kelly who I all see as keepers in my side. Those guys weren't necessarily the best in their positions last year (although they are all proven players). I'm significantly more confident in that group becoming keepers this year than I am in the Rocky, Taranto, Higgins, Sheed Worpel, Newnes, Williams, Smith etc types.
If you see that second group outscoring/matching the first then of course pick em (and they are cheaper as well which means you can get more of em) but I'm just not confident enough in my ability to pick the good ones and avoid the bad ones. If you are (and you get them right) you'll be far, far ahead of me and on your way to a car so I can hardly criticize anyone for taking the punt.
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Agree, I looked at this a while back too... each year showed similar levels of best 22 consistency...role changes, injury, niggles, fixtures, and no doubt many other factors at play.
- Sep 8, 2013
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Treloar M2 and Hore D6
V
Constable M8 and Whitfield D2?
V
Constable M8 and Whitfield D2?
I think it's more that, while I agree with the first group outscoring the second, it doesn't necessarily mean that the second group is going to score badly or not stay in your team for quite a while. If that group stays in 'til the byes/after the byes, then that's pretty much what you want. That's what I deem a 'keeper' or a 'lock'; someone that I won't have to trade until I have the luxury to. For me I see the below in my team as fitting that bill:
Crisp, Smith, Williams, Cripps, Brayshaw, Treloar, Rocky, Taranto, Sheed, Brouch, Gawn, Danger, Dunkley, Boak, Newnes.
That means I have only 7 other trades to make up until that period, with even Walsh being a chance to stick around and be my last trade if he scores well. Given that the byes give you a chance to have 9 trades, then you can usually upgrade 4-6 players (depending on what rooks you have/who you're looking to get). Considering that you should already have made an upgrade trade or two at that point, then theoretically coming out of the byes you should be close to full strength, with players like Newnes, Brouch, Taranto, Williams, Smith etc. being traded to the top 8/6 in their respective positions.
That's the way I see it anyway
- Oct 16, 2015
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Good to hear. Thanks for the insight
- Mar 20, 2007
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Lloyd, Whitfield, Witherden, Williams, Clark, Scrimshaw (Burgess, Hore)
Brayshaw, Merrett, Martin, Rockliff, Crouch, Walsh, Scott, Constable (Atkins, Gibbons)
Grundy, Gawn (Fort, Cameron)
Dangerfield, Heeney, Kelly, Elliott, Setterfield, Drew (Petrucelle, Parker)
Haven't changed this for a few days. Don't want to restructure too much if Scrimshaw isn't named (seems likely he wont be). Isaac Cumming is an alternative to D6
Brayshaw, Merrett, Martin, Rockliff, Crouch, Walsh, Scott, Constable (Atkins, Gibbons)
Grundy, Gawn (Fort, Cameron)
Dangerfield, Heeney, Kelly, Elliott, Setterfield, Drew (Petrucelle, Parker)
Haven't changed this for a few days. Don't want to restructure too much if Scrimshaw isn't named (seems likely he wont be). Isaac Cumming is an alternative to D6
- Jan 8, 2018
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But whos counting51 hrs to the first bounce and 75 hrs to final lockout.......
Why is Scrimshaw unlikely now? Hawthorn board have in a fair few versions of their first 22 as well.
Yeah I saw that, bit odd. Although, that happened a few times last season, when a player didn't have any injury. Given that the club hasn't said anything, I doubt it's anything to worry about
- Oct 4, 2016
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The work experience kid running Fantasy must be testing out the buttons.
- Oct 16, 2015
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We can only imagine how bad the AFLX Fantasy app wpuld be
I'm still waiting for the lockout ticker to show? i can't see one anywhere?
Sshhh, They forgot to add it, so there won't be a lockout round 1.
Any injuries or crazy scores, just trade mid game.
- Oct 4, 2016
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Imagine if they forgot to build it in this year
- Dec 21, 2012
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Don't joke. Half expecting the site to crash and for them to just cancel fantasy for the season.
Probably forgot about it like they did the rankings
- Mar 20, 2007
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yep, there has to be an upgrade coming...the trading screen..the ticker... it's going to kersplutz i reckon.
