AFL 2020 - AFL Round 11 (no aftertiming allowed)

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Robo87 said:
Just noticed wc have kicked Ryan out of the fwd pocket and replaced him with sheed. mayb wc are learning. i like it.
1u sheed ags @2.40 sb
0.7u sheed 2g+ @9 sb
0.3u sheed 3g+ @41 sb
cripps also good odds.
1u cripps ags @2.10 sb
0.7u cripps 2g+ @7.5 sb
0.3u cripps 3g+ @34 sb
Click to expand...


Tailed you on Sheed 2+ , good spot.
 
Robo87 said:
Just noticed wc have kicked Ryan out of the fwd pocket and replaced him with sheed. mayb wc are learning. i like it.
1u sheed ags @2.40 sb //edit: @2.50 on lads
0.7u sheed 2g+ @9.5 sb
0.3u sheed 3g+ @41 sb //edit : now @56
cripps also good odds.
1u cripps ags @2.10 sb //edit: @2.15 lads
0.7u cripps 2g+ @7.5 sb
0.3u cripps 3g+ @34 sb
Click to expand...
Tailed Sheed 2+ @ $9.50
 

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NYRB said:
Like the look of behinds, can see Carlton rushing a few behinds with the Eagles pressure. The thing with wet weather footy, once its stuck in one forward line, or behinds are rushed through, there can be a general trend of more behinds coming through in short time. Look at the Freo v Geelong match as an example in torrential rain a few weeks back.

Last 3 bets I've lost on behinds but just short by 1 in each of those 3.(one of them was a win- but it could have been much much more) Had Hipwood or Lyons missed their shots yesterday late in the 2nd quarter, I would have been profit, same too for Elliot against Sydney the other night. Brisbane training definitely been working. I know West Coast traditionally aren't a high behind scoring side but at those odds you can't refuse it.

West Coast are going in with a squad top heavy in tall players, i'm not sure how flexible and potent they can be in comparison if it was a day match. Can see the ball dropping onto ground and ball being slippery- which affects Kennedy, Darling, Waterman, Oscar Allen and co.


I watched a game last year, where West Coast played at home in the wet against then , an average Port Adelaide side, and they were smashed by 7 goals at Perth Stadium. A small forward topped the goal tally that night with 5 goals, so there is definitely a 'top heavy aspect' to this West Coast team- they aren't as good in the wet as they are in the day. May be worth a play on a small forward to top the goal tally for West Coast ? Thinking Jamie Cripps or Ah Chee are worth a tenner to sneak up for a goal or two, and even top the goals for the Coasters. Ah Chee snuck up for a few goals last night, so think his brother who is a specialist small forward could do the same. 2 or 3 goals for a small forward might be good enough to win the 'Most Goals' market.



Top Goalscorers for the match:

Jamie Cripps @ $23 (Sportsbet)
Jarrod Cameron @ $36 (Sportsbet)
Ah Chee @ $34 (BetEasy)

Also having a play on Cripps 2+ @ $7.50, Cameron 2+ @ $11, Ah Chee 2+ @ $9.50




Going to play the behinds market again:

Carlton Behinds 1st Qtr:
4 Behinds @ $20
5 Behinds @ $61

Carlton Behinds 1st Half:
7-8 Behinds @ $36

West Coast Behinds 1st Qtr
4 Behinds @ $11
5 Behinds @ $26

West Coast Behinds 2nd Qtr:
5 Behinds @ $26

West Coast Behinds 3rd Qtr:
5 Behinds @ $26

West Coast Behinds 4th Qtr:
5 Behinds @ $26

West Coast Behinds 1st Half
7-8 Behinds @ $12
9-10 Behinds @ $101
Click to expand...
Like the cripps and Cameron picks. They the only goal scorers I put in mine. Along with hurn 15 plus
 
$4.75 Blues the win 1 unit
Plus 19.5 blues $1.90 2 units
Both beteasy

Reckon blues have eagles in a good spot here ...wet track and u ain’t going to find a team winning to more than 6 in a row ..... they were off against a depleted Geelong and got over them
With a bit of individual brilliance

Blues may not be good enough to get the job done but think they are overs
and a good chance of trading as favourite during this game
 
Jammer said:
$4.75 Blues the win 1 unit
Plus 19.5 blues $1.90 2 units
Both beteasy

Reckon blues have eagles in a good spot here ...wet track and u ain’t going to find a team winning to more than 6 in a row ..... they were off against a depleted Geelong and got over them
With a bit of individual brilliance

Blues may not be good enough to get the job done but think they are overs
and a good chance of trading as favourite during this game
Click to expand...
Not sure they'll ever be favourites tbh. You would think they'd need to be at least 2 goals in front to be favourites
 
looks like the first quarter might not rain, radar looks pretty heavy though.
 

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Carlton to score first and win 7.50. Small nibble.

They start well. If the dry is there when Carlton play well and then the rain comes, they could Steven Bradbury this.
 
5u Brayshaw 15+, Dumont 15+ @ $1.87 (lads)

Both with high CBAs. Brayshaw seeing the increase in recent weeks and strengthened by Viney being out today. Dumont 100% record for 15+ this year.
 
I forgot to check on my 11-12 West Coast and Carlton half time behinds to cash out before the game. Was at $226 when I got on, and I literally got on it just to cash out it when the odds dropped. No chance of either team kicking that many behinds now :(
 
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