AFL 2020 - AFL Round 11 (no aftertiming allowed)

[NYRB]

Matt Crouch 2020 Stats:
87 Kicks, 136 Handballs (9 games)

Brayden Sier 2020 Stats:
11 kicks, 25 Handballs (2 games)

I don't know about you guys but I sense the average for the handballs will be lower tonight for both players. Can't see both going above their normal rates. Wow I wonder if anybody at Adelaide has ever addressed that problem with Matt Crouch? An elite midfielder has a way higher kick: handball ratio. (his career has been 1409 kicks: 1937 handballs)

 

[benji21]

Also jumping on 0-100pts @3. 3/5 when pies win. Expecting them to win tonight.

 

[AP3XS]

I'm gonna add Ruscoe to a multi

1u @ $4.95 (Lads)
- Ruscoe AGS
- Stephenson AGS
- Collingwood 1Q -4.5

 

[iluvparis]

Matt Crouch 2020 Stats:
87 Kicks, 136 Handballs (9 games)

Brayden Sier 2020 Stats:
11 kicks, 25 Handballs (2 games)

I don't know about you guys but I sense the average for the handballs will be lower tonight for both players. Can't see both going above their normal rates. Wow I wonder if anybody at Adelaide has ever addressed that problem with Matt Crouch? An elite midfielder has a way higher kick: handball ratio. (his career has been 1409 kicks: 1937 handballs)

I think the problem is you are confusing Matt Crouch for an elite midfielder.

 

[Kickpuncher]

O110.5
Adelaide +19.5
Walker AGS
Sier 15+ Disposals

7.40 SB Boosted

 

[ShaunWDT]

Warming up to the idea of Elliot Himmelberg currently named FF. No Darcy Moore down back for Collingwood. Tex/Fogarty/Himmelberg as the three tall targets for Adelaide. Tex/Fogarty may get most of the attention?

Himmelberg AGS @ $1.91 / 2+ @ $6.50 / 3+ @ $26.00

I think the odds are juicy.

I also hate this "due" theory but Josh Thomas has been back in the Pies side for three weeks now and been lackluster, kicked no goals. He kicked plenty last year. Kicked a goal 15/22 games last season, 2+ in 5/22. Kicked 3 against the Crows at Adelaide Oval last season and has kicked at least one goal in his last three matches against the Crows.

Thomas AGS @ $1.91 / 2+ @ $6.50 / 3+ @ $31

Multi: Himmelberg AGS / Thomas AGS / Ruscoe AGS @ $8.00 (SB BOOSTED)

Thomas just doesnt look the same player he used to be, hard to put money on him but their goals need to come from somewhere.

 

[ShaunWDT]

Stephenson every chance to play out of the square for mine, like him for 2+, medium forwards destroy Adelaide and he kicked 5 on them in 2018 (missed last year).

 

[Prochard123]

No Pendles too tho

Yeah but midfield time was never the problem for Adams, it's not as simple as that. How has Mcrouch gone without Brad and Sloane?

Fyi i think adams will get over 22.5, but i also think the margins are too insignificant to bet on, especially considering you're probably looking at $1.88 odds (implying a 53% win rate bet will break even)

 

[sneak]

Just did
0.5u for 2+
0.2u for 3+
0.1u for 4+

Have resisted cash out today on ruscoe haha
Also 1u sgm
Rupert wills 15+
Walker ags
Total over 110.5
Stephenson 2+
Boosted to $10
0.2u
Ruscoe ags
Wills 15+
Sier 20+
Stephenson 2+
Over 110.5
Boosted to 20.50

 

[NYRB]

There doesn't seem to be a lot of love for Adelaide in the H2H market. Drifted out to $4.80 now.

 

[mouncey2franklin]

.5u Collingwood second half margin 37+ @ 10
.5u Collingwood final quarter margin 33+ @ 41

I know the Pies aren't big scorers with Bucks' boring gamestyle but Adelaide are genuine trash at the moment.

Even North spanked them in the second half.

With the draw up their sleeve you might think the Pies don't need percentage but after this win over Adelaide they'll be on level points with Richmond.

Also .2u each on Mihocek 4+/5+ and Stephenson 4+/5+

At least one of their forwards will kick a bag today, surely.

 

[sneak]

Matt Crouch 2020 Stats:
87 Kicks, 136 Handballs (9 games)

Brayden Sier 2020 Stats:
11 kicks, 25 Handballs (2 games)

I don't know about you guys but I sense the average for the handballs will be lower tonight for both players. Can't see both going above their normal rates. Wow I wonder if anybody at Adelaide has ever addressed that problem with Matt Crouch? An elite midfielder has a way higher kick: handball ratio. (his career has been 1409 kicks: 1937 handballs)

Scott west career 4129 kicks 4093 handballs back when kicking was higher percentage
7 best and fairests

 

[dontlimitme]

no late changes

 

[Ohh Ok]

3u Adams 20+, Sidebottom 20+ @ $1.93
2u Schoenberg 15+ (Build-a-bet) @ $1.75 (BE)

Adams and Sidebottom both better than each and every one of the crows midfielders. Sidebottom presents a bit of value after going under his line of 26.5 two weeks in a row since returning and it now being set at 21.5. 29 disposal hole to fill with Treloar missing, I think Sidey spends a bit more time on ball tonight rather than out on a wing. Conditions to suit Adams, as this is what he enjoys. Match wont be taken lightly by the pies either, as they need to secure the win. Expecting these stars to be in and amongst it to ensure the job gets done.

Bummed out on missing the better price on offer at SB last night for this one, still think there is a bit there, but not huge value anymore. Major ball winner last year averaging 27 at the U18 championships and 24 playing with the men at SANFL. Jones out sees an increase in time, named on ball to start off the night.

 

[NYRB]

Last week Adelaide gave up in the 2nd half. it was the worst 2nd half performance from any team this year period.

They could only score 8 points in the 2nd half against the Demons.(which is the equal 4th lowest total in the 2nd half this year out of 93 games so far this season) Not sure if its a fitness issue? Maybe the coach is no good? Don't know why such a discrepancy between performance in 1st and 2nd halves.......

 

[chennef]

Tailing the Ruscoe multiple goal tips!

Chucking him in most goals multi with Steele most disposals as well at $101 SB

 

[NYRB]

From a betting perspective, I hope Adelaide can put in a good fight, for the viewers but I'm afraid this could get a bit ugly for them tonight.

 

[Geeves Train]

Last week Adelaide gave up in the 2nd half. it was the worst 2nd half performance from any team this year period.

They could only score 8 points in the 2nd half against the Demons.(which is the equal 4th lowest total in the 2nd half this year out of 93 games so far this season) Not sure if its a fitness issue? Maybe the coach is no good? Don't know why such a discrepancy between performance in 1st and 2nd halves.......

Young inexperienced bodies who burn out vs hardened professionals, simples.

If Pies were at full strength I’d be keen as for big margins in the second half but the Pies team are 40% VFL players. Also, I wouldn’t pull the trigger on these markets pre-game. Markets don’t change much regardless of 1st half score, players injuries, etc. If Pies are 40 up by half time they will put the cue in the rack for sure!!

 

[benji21]

Collingwood like scoring in the 1st qtr. adelaide dont score second half.
Few units on 1st quarter highest scoring.

 

[NYRB]

If Pies are 40 up by half time they will put the cue in the rack for sure!!

This is a good point. Collingwood came here for a win, they don't need a big win, just a comfortable win and no injuries. Just feel this more experienced Collingwood playing 50% motivated can still beat this tiring young, Adelaide team in the 2nd half still.

I don't believe Adelaide are tanking, they are too proud a club to be doing that stuff. Watching them closely, their midfield is too slow and I fancy whoever plays in the Pies midfield to clean up tonight. Reckon the midfield battle will be about 70:30 in favour of Collingwood for clearances in the middle.

 

[Ohh Ok]

Crows at the line anyone?

1.5u Either team under 24.5 pts @ $1.84 (TopSport)

Grabbing the extra 4 points, think the crows can keep this within 4 goals. Some massive outs for Collingwood at the moment and some guys lacking experience or full match time coming in. Crows still hunting for that first win, and know Collingwood are playing far from their best footy. Weather should tighten things up a little. Both sides struggling to kick scores this season which also helps this one.

 

[NYRB]

Adelaide Clearances 252 For, 345 Against. They lose the clearance battle on average 9.3 times per game. Good luck to anyone on the Crows tonight. If the Roos can get kick 10 goals in the 2nd half against this mob, the Pies can do it as well.

Taken a bit of a speculative bet

Collingwood 2nd half goals 11-12 goals $71
Collingwood 2nd half goals 13+ @ $501


It has no chance of landing but there is more chance the Crows putting the cue in the rack than the Pies after half time.

 

[Ohh Ok]

3.5u Grundy under 98.5 fantasy pts @ $1.70 (BE) - trading at $1.73 on betfair.

Buying into the rumours around Grundy potentially being rested, potential injury cloud, think he may be limited tonight or spend less time around the ruck and more time forward. Adding to this we are yet to see a ruckman surpass this total against ROB this season, another plus factor!

 

[pendlebury_10]

Worth nothing that Mayne is named in the forward pocket, $41 FGS with TAB

 

[NonPhixion]

Worth nothing that Mayne is named in the forward pocket, $41 FGS with TAB

interesting, not sure, im thinking there is a possibility that Tom Phillips starts in the FP and Mayne starts on the wing being the fresher player. But purely speculating, will look to see where they run out to just before bounce