AFL 2020 - AFL Round 11 (no aftertiming allowed)

[dontlimitme]

Coll qtr time leader, MCrouch most disp Gr A, Sier 20+ $10.60 -SB

pies are yet to lose a 1st qtr,Crouch will run wild & Sier gathered 23 last week, no Treloar he will spend even more TOG

tailed but sier 15+ instead of 20+ on lads for 7.51 boosted

 

[yousnoozeyoulose]

Warming up to the idea of Elliot Himmelberg currently named FF. No Darcy Moore down back for Collingwood. Tex/Fogarty/Himmelberg as the three tall targets for Adelaide. Tex/Fogarty may get most of the attention?

Himmelberg AGS @ $1.91 / 2+ @ $6.50 / 3+ @ $26.00

I think the odds are juicy.

I also hate this "due" theory but Josh Thomas has been back in the Pies side for three weeks now and been lackluster, kicked no goals. He kicked plenty last year. Kicked a goal 15/22 games last season, 2+ in 5/22. Kicked 3 against the Crows at Adelaide Oval last season and has kicked at least one goal in his last three matches against the Crows.

Thomas AGS @ $1.91 / 2+ @ $6.50 / 3+ @ $31

Multi: Himmelberg AGS / Thomas AGS / Ruscoe AGS @ $8.00 (SB BOOSTED)

 

[Geeves Train]

Sier, Phillips, Seedsman and Keays 15+ $3.51 (Lads)

Sier, Phillips, Seedsman, Keays 15+ and McAdam, Ruscoe AGS $13.08 (Lads)

Gimme gimme gimme!!

 

[wally99]

Daicos AGS tonight $2.45 bet365

As low as $1.52 with lads

He 5 from his last 6 kicking one and playing Adelaide with no De Goey/Hoskin Elliot/Elliot

On SM-G986B using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Sausage Legs]

Not going to make any predictions weather wise but has been raining all day so far here in adelaide. Just a heads up.

Really like the Sier 15 plus as mentioned above at 1.68. Inside mid, with their guns out, wet so a lot of stoppages and has the dominant Ruckman. Multied it with crows +34.5 on pick your own line for a 2.28 odds. With the weather and pies outs and low scoring of late hard to see a massive blowout. (It's also a bit of a hedge as have pies win in a few running multis so give a chance to win both ways).

 

[weetert]

Stengle AGS at $2.2 seems good value. Increased midfield time is a worry but worth the bite imo. Usually a quality finisher(ignoring his shocker vs Essendon). 2+ @7 probably worth a tiny stab too.

 

[dontlimitme]

grundy rumoured to be a late out tonight

 

[Bucking Bronco]

grundy rumoured to be a late out tonight

Anywhere Darcy Cameron can be bet for disposals/ fantasy then?

Appears to be a bit of a gun when played as the main ruck.

 

[Ohh Ok]

Been pissing down here in Adelaide all day. Doesn’t really seem like stopping. Wind is picking up now too. Haven’t looked at the radar yet though.

Also who smashed Schoenberg 15+? Was sitting at $2.80 on Sportsbet last night. Left it to wait and see if any other bookies put anything up this morning, but got busy and have only just had time to go back to it and it’s $1.67 unfortunately. Absolute ripper bet if anyone grabbed the original price, bloke was averaging 25 at SANFL level last year and should see an increase in opportunity this week with Jones out

 

[AP3XS]

1.5u @ $1.95 (Lads)
- Sier 15+
- Laird 15+
- Maynard 15+

0.5u @ $3.25 (Lads) - Stephenson 2+ goals

0.5u @ $3.20 (Lads) - Crows +19.5 & Under 112.5

 

[karaoke]

Hawkins, Josh Kennedy and Jeremy Cameron, the most reliable big forwards if you looking to back 2+ goals in my opinion.

FWIW
2+ in '20
Hawkins - 8/11
Cameron - 7/10
Kennedy - 5/10
Taberner - 6/10 (AGS 10/10)

 

[andwhenitcomes]

Ben Crocker AGS @ 2.60 (Topsport)

 

[NYRB]

PointsBet have H2H Goalscorer markets if anybody is keen:

Like the look of Mihocek to beat Fogarty, even if its at $1.93. He is $2.02 to kick 2+ Goals. One of the things I noticed though Fogarty, is a pretty accurate shoot for goal 22 goals and 5 behinds in his career. Reckon the draw on Fogarty v Stephenson is decent value at $3.40, could see it being 0-0 or 1-1 in goals.

 

[NYRB]

Sportsbet special:

Collingwood to combine for 340+ Disposals paying $5.50

 

[NonPhixion]

Sportsbet special:

Collingwood to combine for 340+ Disposals paying $5.50

wouldn’t go near it. Wet conditions will mean Collingwood won’t be able to play that high possession keepings off style of game.

 

[Ohh Ok]

2u Stephenson 2+ goals @ $3.25 (lads)

57% strike rate in 2019 (8/14), 37% in 2020 (3/8). Bookies implied probability = 30%.
Think we got some great value here in Stephenson with Elliot, De Goey, WHE all missing from the side, up against the worst team in the comp.

 

[freo_leo29]

2u Stephenson 2+ goals @ $3.25 (lads)

57% strike rate in 2019 (8/14), 37% in 2020 (3/8). Bookies implied probability = 30%.
Think we got some great value here in Stephenson with Elliot, De Goey, WHE all missing from the side, up against the worst team in the comp.

I like this, surely Stephenson stays forward with those players missing from the side

 

[freo_leo29]

Adams O22.5 @ neds

no Treloar and Adams goes bonkers usually

 

[Prochard123]

Adams O22.5 @ neds

no Treloar and Adams goes bonkers usually

26, 21, 19, 17 - average of 20.75
If you include the game from last week with Treloar out for 1 quarter - average of 22.5

The line is almost perfect. Benefits of playing against Adelaide counteract with the potential of being tagged by Keays who doesn't have the tank to go with Sidebottom on a wing/in defence.

 

[NYRB]

wouldn’t go near it. Wet conditions will mean Collingwood won’t be able to play that high possession keepings off style of game.

Ok thanks for that. I do realise Collingwood are the highest possession team in the comp. I don't what the relation is between wet weather games v disposals, dry weather games v disposals. Someone may correct me if I am wrong, but in wet weather, disposals are harder to get, there are more long kicks, less handballs, and there is more tackling. Can think of 4 games that were wet this year: Freo v Geelong, WCE V Carlton, Richmond v Sydney & Freo v Hawks last night. The leading team with Disposals per team that night: 342, 287, 302 380 in order. The ratio of kicks: handballs, for the leading teams was somewhere along the lines of 15 kicks: 11 handballs. (combined for 4 games) There is a saying in wet weather footy, you should kick the ball more than handball.

I think i will give this a miss then.

 

[freo_leo29]

26, 21, 19, 17 - average of 20.75
If you include the game from last week with Treloar out for 1 quarter - average of 22.5

The line is almost perfect. Benefits of playing against Adelaide counteract with the potential of being tagged by Keays who doesn't have the tank to go with Sidebottom on a wing/in defence.

No Pendles too tho

 

[mouncey2franklin]

No offense lads but all this talk of possessions and Stephenson and Sidebottom and Keays and so forth.

Forget about it.

Just hop on the Trey Ruscoe Goals train to Cashville.

NonPhixion's driving this one, I'm sitting in first class counting chickens which are almost guaranteed to hatch.

 

[benji21]

Going to have a little on Daicos 18+, Sier 21+ and Adams 24+
All cleared last week and no Treloar.
Also looks like the rain will be clearing up from now on. To be fair though the weather predictions haven't been great this week.

 

[Ohh Ok]

26, 21, 19, 17 - average of 20.75
If you include the game from last week with Treloar out for 1 quarter - average of 22.5

The line is almost perfect. Benefits of playing against Adelaide counteract with the potential of being tagged by Keays who doesn't have the tank to go with Sidebottom on a wing/in defence.

Adam's average is down a little due to him always smashing his head up a few times this season though. Expect that tog to be up around the 85% mark, definitely his sort of game if the rain comes down

 

[Ohh Ok]

No offense lads but all this talk of possessions and Stephenson and Sidebottom and Keays and so forth.

Forget about it.

Just hop on the Trey Ruscoe Goals train to Cashville.

NonPhixion's driving this one, I'm sitting in first class counting chickens which are almost guaranteed to hatch.

Where's the best price? Late to the party