AFL 2020 - AFL Round 7

[NYRB]

Nathan Brown Sportsbet preview special for Carlton v Port Adelaide:

Carlton +15.5 Points head start
Gibbons 15+ Disposals
Eddie Betts AGS



I have taken , Carlton +17.5 pts, Gibbons 15+ , Betts AGS= @ $4.38 at Lads if anyone is keen


Im pretty to give Nathan Brown a 2nd chance. Last night when Simpkin went down in the 2nd quarter due to injury and that was the reason why that bet lost.

 

[NYRB]

a bit of food for thought for betting on disposals this season. There seems to be a general trend whereby if you are a higher disposal team, you are higher ranked on the ladder this season.

 

[NYRB]

going to go for SGM: Darcy Byrne-Jones 15+, Dan Houston 15+,Kane Farrell 15+ Disposals , thats paying $4.35

Farrell has been labelled to play a midfield role and he picked up a fair number of disposals last week.

 

[BuddysBuddy23]

Does champion data ever revise their final findings?

I know a couple of times this year where a mate has needed certain players to get one more disposal for his bet to get up and CD have scaled up these players posessions after the game. A punter last night emailed either CD or the betting agencie to do with Simpkin’s final touch and they responded saying they are looking in to it and will get back to them. Will be interesting to see what comes of it

 

[NYRB]

SGM : Patrick Cripps AGS, Boak AGS, Karl Amon AGS @ $13.75

 

[GROTTO]

I know a couple of times this year where a mate has needed certain players to get one more disposal for his bet to get up and CD have scaled up these players posessions after the game. A punter last night emailed either CD or the betting agencie to do with Simpkin’s final touch and they responded saying they are looking in to it and will get back to them. Will be interesting to see what comes of it

I might be dreaming and making shit up, but I swear I have heard or seen that CD do look over games and make a final decision.

With that said, you may need to look at the rules of the books, ie. if the result is determined at the final siren or can be subjected to change if CD reevaluates its data.

In fairness I struggle to see who is kicking goals, to record each and every disposal, etc etc etc, there is a lot of data they accumulate for a game, it would be easy to miss one, or not count one and look back on it later and change.

I actually thought that they review each game afterwards in any case in terms of their final data.

 

[hot dogs]

I know a couple of times this year where a mate has needed certain players to get one more disposal for his bet to get up and CD have scaled up these players posessions after the game. A punter last night emailed either CD or the betting agencie to do with Simpkin’s final touch and they responded saying they are looking in to it and will get back to them. Will be interesting to see what comes of it

I'm fairly confident they review the game. I've definitely seen possession counts chang after the game has finished.

Sent from my SM-G973F using Tapatalk

 

[burge13]

Does anyone here keep a record of their bets? Hows AFL treating you if so?

Everyone says theyre up but that simply isnt true. Sportsbet be out of business if that were the case

 

[Johanpetro]

Silly multi for the Blues/Power game

Casbault and R Gray both 2+ goals at $15

 

[burge13]

Walsh, Houston, DBJ all 15+ pays 2.33

Bonus bet if 1 loses. Looks safe

 

[Sausage Legs]

Paddy Ryder 2.75 lads
Kent 1.95
Rozee 1.85
McKay 1.50
Fritsch 1.50 365
Jamie Cripps 1.80

 

[NYRB]

Total Match Points for Carlton and the Power:

 

[BuddysBuddy23]

Walsh, Houston, DBJ all 15+ pays 2.33

Bonus bet if 1 loses. Looks safe

$2.06 for Wines instead of Houston. Both look great bets to double your dollar

 

[md20]

SGM $4.70 (Lads)
Port Half Time/Full Time
Under 133.5
D. Byrne-Jones 15+

SGM $5.79 (Lads)
Hawks Half Time/Full Time
Under 123.5
J. Viney 15+
I. Smith 15+

 

[NYRB]

Other bets I like:

Robbie Gray 20 + Disposals = $4.50
Sam Walsh 20 + Disposals & Kade Simpson 15+ Disposals = $4.00
Motlop 2+ Goals @ 7, 3+ Goals @ 31, 4+ Goals @ 101
Rozee 2+ Goals @5, 3+ Goals @ 18, 4+ Goals @ 81
SGM Multi Rozee 2+ Goals, Motlop 2+ Goals @ $38.25

 

[squeaky1000]

Setterfield 15+ $2.30
Powell-Pepper 15+ $2
Both over the odds imo, coming off 20 and 22 disposals with solid midfield minutes and centre bounce attendances

 

[squeaky1000]

Other bets I like:

Robbie Gray 20 + Disposals = $4.50
Sam Walsh 20 + Disposals & Kade Simpson 15+ Disposals = $4.00
Motlop 2+ Goals @ 7, 3+ Goals @ 31, 4+ Goals @ 101
Rozee 2+ Goals @5, 3+ Goals @ 18, 4+ Goals @ 81
SGM Multi Rozee 2+, Motlop 2+ @ $38.25

Robbie Gray is averaging 11 disposals in his last 4 games. I am not sure how you can validate liking him for 20

 

[NYRB]

Robbie Gray is averaging 11 disposals in his last 4 games. I am not sure how you can validate liking him for 20

yep i knew i would get questioned in this, last year Gray got 27 possies against the Bluebaggers. Also got a sneaky feeling he will get a bit more of the ball today, with the ball more likely to be in the Port Adelaide forward line.

 

[BuddysBuddy23]

TAB’s “Today’s Offers” have Mitchell/Oliver 55+ disposals @ $4. They average 24 each but I can see both having big games today, especially Oliver v our mids who give up plenty of ball.
The other offer for today is Cripps/Boak to both get 25+, paying $6. They average 22 & 21 respectively. I don’t like this bet as much, main reason being with Lads/Neds I can get $6.14 for both 25+, add in a 3rd leg and it becomes bonus back if 1 leg fails

 

[Islanda22]

Thoughts on

Carlton +12.5 and Melbourne +3.5

 

[NYRB]

The other offer for today is Cripps/Boak to both get 25+, paying $6. They average 22 & 21 respectively. I don’t like this bet as much, main reason being with Lads/Neds I can get $6.14 for both 25+, add in a 3rd leg and it becomes bonus back if 1 leg fails

I got burnt a few weeks back betting on Cripps disposals. Just feel like teams are heavily tagging him this year, some teams i noticed go two players on him. Ill stay away from this one

Speaking of Boak, ive decided to have him few some goals as well : Boak 2+ @9.50, Boak 3+ @ 51

 

[Islanda22]

Am I the only one here bullish on the Blues tomorrow?

First important point, the teams lining up tomorrow are going to be very similar age and experience profiles.

On that note, Lycett and Ebert are massive outs for Port.

Ebert kicked three goals last time these teams played, in a match decided by 16 points.

Lycett out means Ladhams in. He has played five games of footy, including two bad losses (Hawks and the North belting last year).

Picconet was strong last week. I expect him to beat Ladhams comfortably.

Especially because that is what he did last year in the aforementioned Hawks match (when Picconet was still playing for Hawthorn).

AFL Tables - Hawthorn v Port Adelaide - Sat, 25-May-2019 1:45 PM - Match Stats

afltables.com

If Carlton continually get first use of the ball it will stifle Port's turnover / rebound game and expose their defence bigtime.

Once Port's game is broken down, they tend to get beaten soundly. Several 5+ goal losses last year including a 14-goal loss to North.

Then add in the fact that Port are waking up right about now (literally as I type these words) to FIFO...

...Meanwhile Carlton are tucked in bed sound asleep getting a good night's rest.

Finally I believe the AFL is basically corrupt and the umpires play favourites. I see them jumping on the Blues train in this one.

I'm not going to load up on this match the same way I did the Suns/Cats game, that one has scared me from loading up on underdogs.

But I'm putting a few units total on Carlton SU @ 2.86, -15.5 @ 5.90 and -24.5 @ 11.

Also lots of smaller bets on larger margins, and various Carlton forwards AGS/2+/3+.

I do like the Carlton outfit this season

As we speak the line is down to 12.5 which is good

 

[Hellboy101]

Houston & Powell Pepper 15+, Duursma AGS, Port win @6.7 - Lads.

Tail at own risk. My last 10 SGM. 3 wins, 6 refunds and a loss. Average odds @5.

Good luck today all.

 

[NYRB]

Houston & Powell Pepper 15+, Duursma AGS, Port win @6.7 - Lads.

Tail at own risk. My last 10 SGM. 3 wins, 6 refunds and a loss. Average odds @5.

Good luck today all.

Tailed but only got odds of $6.08 at Lads . I assume you got the boost.

 

[Hellboy101]

Boosted to $6.70