AFL 2020 - AFL Round 7

[NYRB]

Rich depth is good to the point they lost 5 players and brought in 4 Premiership players.

Syd currently have no ruckmen, no key forwards, very little midfield quality and approximately 1 forward that can kick goals and little HGA. I had them pegged as the 2nd worst team in front of Adelaide before Heeney and Kennedy got injured.

That saying they're playing GC on the road so probs best not to go nuts.

GC happened to have beaten Sydney at the SCG in 2018 (in probably the upset of the season) so there is a bit of form for them on that side . I think on paper GC start as favourites.

 

[timster]

I feel like the Cats are real value. If its wet that will suit the Cats better than Pies. SGM with cats defenders as i think it will be a low scoring affair and lots of possessions in the back lines. Perhaps Tuohy to get 15 touches and selwood to get 15 is paying $3.20 with SB and cats win. Could also include under total game points as if its wet both teams will play safety defense first

 

[AFLFootyChick]

Rankine still a good bet for mine, could very easily be under $2 for the Rising Star within a fortnight, Sydney are woeful and Dogs have been up and down all year.

He got the Rising Star nomination for the round, as expected, however, Sportsbet haven't noted it yet. He's still showing $5 this morning. In to $4.50 at Lads. Another solid game this week and he will be outright favourite.

 

[AFLFootyChick]

He got the Rising Star nomination for the round, as expected, however, Sportsbet haven't noted it yet. He's still showing $5 this morning. In to $4.50 at Lads. Another solid game this week and he will be outright favourite.

EDIT: $4 on Sportsbet now. Still $5 at 365.

 

[NonPhixion]

EDIT: $4 on Sportsbet now. Still $5 at 365.

seems pretty clear those campaigners at SB are following this thread closely. If only there was a screening process to weed them off here lol.

 

[AFLFootyChick]

seems pretty clear those campaigners at SB are following this thread closely. If only there was a screening process to weed them off here lol.

Maybe we need a private Facebook group.

 

[ShaunWDT]

He got the Rising Star nomination for the round, as expected, however, Sportsbet haven't noted it yet. He's still showing $5 this morning. In to $4.50 at Lads. Another solid game this week and he will be outright favourite.

Injury is the only thing that will stop him from winning it for mine, wouldn't talk anyone out of chips in there.

 

[JuniorWatch]

Maybe we need a private Facebook group.

Or a way to post red herrings to boost the odds we're actually after.
I'm putting all my money on Ben Crocker for the Brownlow, who's with me!

 

[GROTTO]

seems pretty clear those campaigners at SB are following this thread closely. If only there was a screening process to weed them off here lol.

If I am not mistaken you can restrict who views or doesnt view this thread. (ie make it public or not)

 

[anonymous Derik]

He got the Rising Star nomination for the round, as expected, however, Sportsbet haven't noted it yet. He's still showing $5 this morning. In to $4.50 at Lads. Another solid game this week and he will be outright favourite.

So what would happen if the season did get abandoned with this Covid shit? Is there still a winner or would you get refunded?

 

[NonPhixion]

Maybe we need a private Facebook group.

I’d be happy to organise something like this, just feel this thread is gaining good speed atm & there’s really good tips going around the joint

like this comment if you would be interested in a FB group. If there is enough numbers I’ll do it

 

[iluvparis]

We have a discord group for the horses - its quite effective

 

[cutterman]

There is no chance Sportsbet are following this thread. They would be reacting to money placed on the market or movements with other books.

 

[NYRB]

I’d be happy to organise something like this, just feel this thread is gaining good speed atm & there’s really good tips going around the joint

like this comment if you would be interested in a FB group. If there is enough numbers I’ll do it

Id be interested in joining but the only proviso is that you can’t stalk my female friends.

 

[NYRB]

I reckon TopSport are following this thread. They seem to be offering the best odds for “Total Match Points” in comparison to other bookies so in a way it can work both ways, for the good and for the bad.

 

[ShaunWDT]

More hype Rankine gets the shorter hell be dont think Sportsbet watch Bigfooty threads lol, its a media voted award by a panel after all..

The Goal Markets would just be due to the amount of money put on in a short period of time any footy fan that punts is all over that sort of shit.

 

[burge13]

I’d be happy to organise something like this, just feel this thread is gaining good speed atm & there’s really good tips going around the joint

like this comment if you would be interested in a FB group. If there is enough numbers I’ll do it

I don't use FB, I sure hope there's an alternative!

 

[burge13]

There is no chance Sportsbet are following this thread. They would be reacting to money placed on the market or movements with other books.

Yeah I doubt the 40 or so comments in here are moving markets that much. There'd be heaps of twitter groups, Whatsapp chats and the like running around. We're small fries really, even if some don't like to admit it...

Still can't hurt having a more private group

 

[ShaunWDT]

Yeah I doubt the 40 or so comments in here are moving markets that much. There'd be heaps of twitter groups, Whatsapp chats and the like running around. We're small fries really, even if some don't like to admit it...

Still can't hurt having a more private group

Discord is probably the way to go, who uses FB regularly in 2020.

 

[burge13]

Discord is probably the way to go, who uses FB regularly in 2020.

Can't say I've used this either but if it isn't FB I'd figure it out to join.

I've gone 15ish years without FB, I'm not signing up now!

 

[chennef]

We have a discord group for the horses - its quite effective

Invite please

 

[NYRB]

Just had a look at the Sportsbet statistics and don't be deceived or misled by their stats. I reckon some of their stats can be dodgy at times. Look at this one for instance:




At first I assumed they scaled it back by factoring into account the shorter quarters but I was wrong on that as well. The last 9 games between these 2: 112, 137, 111, 129, 185, 184, 172, 159 and 163. Even if you took 20% off those scores, 5 of them would be above 104.5 pts.

 

[burge13]

Just had a look at the Sportsbet statistics and don't be deceived or misled by their stats. I reckon some of their stats can be dodgy at times. Look at this one for instance:

View attachment 912013


At first I assumed they scaled it back by factoring into account the shorter quarters but I was wrong on that as well. The last 9 games between these 2: 112, 137, 111, 129, 185, 184, 172, 159 and 163. Even if you took 20% off those scores, 5 of them would be above 104.5 pts.

Trusting a bookies information is like trusting your alcoholic roommate not to steal your 6 pack...

Though it can't be legal to provide clearly faulty/misleading stats can it?

 

[GROTTO]

Just had a look at the Sportsbet statistics and don't be deceived or misled by their stats. I reckon some of their stats can be dodgy at times. Look at this one for instance:

View attachment 912013


At first I assumed they scaled it back by factoring into account the shorter quarters but I was wrong on that as well. The last 9 games between these 2: 112, 137, 111, 129, 185, 184, 172, 159 and 163. Even if you took 20% off those scores, 5 of them would be above 104.5 pts.

What SB are doing IMO is comparing the total game points line that they set for that match before the match and that the final actual total game points went under.

They are not saying all 9 of these matches went u104.5

 

[ShaunWDT]

What SB are doing IMO is comparing the total game points line that they set for that match before the match and that the final actual total game points went under.

They are not saying all 9 of these matches went u104.5

Id be all over that line with the forecast tbh, meant to absolutely piss down.