AFL 2020 - AFL Round 8

[mouncey2franklin]

I don't expect North to kick many goals but Larkey is value at 2.10 / 7 / 31 for AGS / 2 / 3.

I've included him in some multis with the Blues small forwards.

Very talented young footballer, kicked a few bags last year, if Carlton focus on keeping Brown quiet then Larkey could bob up with a few.

Even in the wet, he has good hands and is a solid shot at goal from <45m.

 

[demon_fanatic]

Strangely enough I like North's ins I smell an upset.

 

[demon_fanatic]

Weather in Qld Sunday looking better now gone from 5-15 mm rain to only 0-3mm and a possible shower storm arvo or evening,if that stays away the over 122.5 b365 Melb vs Bris looks great

 

[mouncey2franklin]

Okay my last play for tomorrow's match. I've gone a little overboard with different bets but there seems to be a lot of value there.

Higgins disposals is

25+ @ 2.40
30+ @ 5.50
35+ @ 14

He got 36 last week and 37 last time we played Carlton.

North have brought in two mids and no backs, suggesting they plan to play Higgins as the rebounding / sweeping defender again.

He can rack up touches like nobodies business.

Obviously if the game is a slippery shitshow then the cheap handballs and one-twos will be hard to come by but if the Blues midfield gets on top and the ball spends a lot of time in Carlton's forward half, Higgins will be around.

 

[juss]

Carlton, Port Adelaide, Hawks.
1.5u on each, nothing fancy today.

 

[NYRB]

Im 1 out of 6 following Nathan Brown SGM. Here is his tip for SGM Sydney v Hawthorn and reasoning:

Head to Head: Hawthorn (their on ball brigade is good- Hawks)
Total Match Points: Over 113.5 pts (not defending well either of these sides)
20 + Disposals: Jake Lloyd (he plays on half back, he plays on nobody, easiest position on the ground to play)

That is paying $4.20

Watch this bet fcuk up as well. Browny is a terrible tipster but I'll follow you again for a bit of insurance.


I'll go against Browny on 2 counts there with my reasoning:

Head to Head : Sydney Swans ( both teams are mediorce- but at home with crowd support thats worth a 2 goals advantage in itself. Hawks have been a shambles the last 2 weeks, whilst the Swans gave a solid effort at home against the Swans last week. Hawks will feel uncomfortable being based up in Sydney for 4 consecutive weeks)
Total Match Points: Over 122.5 pts (the rain looks like it will steer away from around 3-6pm)
2+ Goals: Tom Papley (has kicked 2+ in 5 of his past 6 matches)

I only agree with Brown on one thing, is that the match will go above the total match points line.

My tip is paying : $12.15 (boosted to $14.16)

 

[NYRB]

If Nathan Brown tipped Covid19 to still be running next week, he would probably jinx that & there would be a vaccine next week.

 

[NYRB]

Nathan Brown SGM Carlton v North Melbourne and his reasoning. Again I'll follow him again:

Carlton Margin: 1-39 pts (their exciting, up and about, and playing with confidence)
Anytime Goalscorer: Eddie Betts
Anytime Goalscorer: Jack Martin

Thats paying $4.33

I have put my own SGM with my reasoning. I'll oppose Carlton on the margin, personally feel the Blues could blow the Roos out here.

Total Match Points: Over 111.5 pts (i reckon Carlton will look to play their natural attacking game)
Anytime Goalscorer: Eddie Betts (Browny usually gets at least 1 leg right, and this looks like the most 'nailed on' bet)
Anytime Goalscorer: Jack Martin (Martin has scored a goal in 5 of 7 matches this season)

There is the potential for Carlton to win by a big margin, thats the leg of Brown's margin i think could fall.

My SGM is paying $3.60

 

[Aishole]

If Nathan Brown tipped Covid19 to still be running next week, he would probably jinx that & there would be a vaccine next week.

At what point do you stop taking his tips & posting about them?

 

[NYRB]

At what point do you stop taking his tips & posting about them?

if you want me to stop posting about them, Ill stop? just feel like there is an edge in opposing his selections.

If you prefer me to keep that edge to myself, and show a bit of social etiquette on the BigFooty forum , im all for that as well. Don't want to cause trouble on a footy forum.

 

[Aishole]

if you want me to stop posting about them, Ill stop? just feel like there is an edge in opposing his selections.

If you prefer me to keep that edge to myself, and show a bit of social etiquette on the BigFooty forum , im all for that as well. Don't want to cause trouble on a footy forum.

Its no trouble, i’m just curious. Its fairly obvious to most that a sportsbet employees tips are potentially not the most reliable?

 

[NYRB]

Its no trouble, i’m just curious. Its fairly obvious to most that a sportsbet employees tips are potentially not the most reliable?

Well I respected Nathan Brown as a footballer but Nathan Brown as a punter- leaves little to be desired. Great that he can back up his selection with some reasoning but I feel that if I can oppose him at one of his short odds selections, with my own reasoning - think this forum could benefit for their multis. Sportsbet, AFL , Nathan Brown in the same sentence - I actually feel a bit of sympathy for Sportsbet so I want to give them something back.

 

[Aishole]

Well I respected Nathan Brown as a footballer but Nathan Brown as a punter- leaves little to be desired. Great that he can back up his selection with some reasoning but I feel that if I can oppose him at one of his short odds selections, with my own reasoning - think this forum could benefit for their multis. Sportsbet, AFL , Nathan Brown in the same sentence - I actually feel a bit of sympathy for Sportsbet so I want to give them something back.

I can understand the opposing him logic, but surely at 1-6 you stop taking his actual tips?

I for one don’t have much sympathy for sportsbet haha

 

[mac23]

Well I respected Nathan Brown as a footballer but Nathan Brown as a punter- leaves little to be desired. Great that he can back up his selection with some reasoning but I feel that if I can oppose him at one of his short odds selections, with my own reasoning - think this forum could benefit for their multis. Sportsbet, AFL , Nathan Brown in the same sentence - I actually feel a bit of sympathy for Sportsbet so I want to give them something back.

But this is predicated on the idea that he’s sharing his genuine insight. Even if he were gods gift to punting don’t you think it would be completely counterintuitive to share his actual tips? Get a job at KFC and see how many free Zinger Boxes you can hand out before they send you packing.

 

[Kyptastic]

2U Reilly O'Brien 15+ Disposals 2.30 on SB.

Averaging 14 over his last 5 games and opposition ruckmen have performed above their average against Essendon in pretty much every game this year.

edit. He got 27 touches against the bombers in a loss last season in a full length game, might be worth a look at $6 for 20+ as well.

 

[Ohh Ok]

3u Higgins 15+, Dumont 15+, Curnow 15+ @ $1.72 (SB)

3u Parker over 22.5 disposals @ $1.90 (lads)
2u Mills 15+, Worpel 15+ @ $1.80 (SB)

Keeping it small on the North/Carlton game. These guys should all accumulate 15. Higgins after a massive one last week, Dumont always accumulates his 15+ (a great one to add to sgms), Curnow still in his midfield role and a wet weather player.

Was hoping to get 22.5 throughout the week. Massive chance to smash this line today, main mid for Sydney atm, huge tog, huge cba, hawks giving up plenty to opposing mids.
Both have only missed once this season. Mills saw an increase in time through the midfield last week, and worpel will see time there today. A couple of the better players in a lower quality game today.

 

[burge13]

My last 8 SGM.
2 wins/6 losses. All 6 losses by 1 leg so money back
4 of those losses were by 1 disposal
1 of those losses was a missed AGS where 0.2 was kicked

I'm either really bloody unlucky or were those 2 wins were flukes haha.

 

[Sausage Legs]

Well I respected Nathan Brown as a footballer but Nathan Brown as a punter- leaves little to be desired. Great that he can back up his selection with some reasoning but I feel that if I can oppose him at one of his short odds selections, with my own reasoning - think this forum could benefit for their multis. Sportsbet, AFL , Nathan Brown in the same sentence - I actually feel a bit of sympathy for Sportsbet so I want to give them something back.

It's more the point that u have stated the tips are no good many times, yet u keep following them.

 

[NYRB]

Get a job at KFC and see how many free Zinger Boxes you can hand out before they send you packing.

Yep I know this too well. Good point that you make as well, there is no 'freebies' in this world. I have worked at KFC before and didn't last that long. I think from here on in, I won't post Brownies tips any more.(People on here want to followers winners, not losers- Brown and Sportsbet are working in tandem to try and rip off the punter) I also don't want to jinx other peoples bets, as soon as I posted his tips- I can feel some forumites feeling a bit of displeasure and disdain.

I am also a fairly superstitious person, I bet on Brown's bets and then bet by opposing his bets.

 

[Robo87]

Thoughts on a shot for Carlton margin today: 20-39pts @4.25 BE superboost? Or 40+ @ 5.50?

 

[NonPhixion]

Crippa AGS, Martin AGS, Curnow 15+ $4.90 SB

 

[NYRB]

Just be wary of backing Cripps for disposals, under the 16 minute a quarter, he has yet to notch up 25+ Disposals. Think he is struggling personally with a heavy tag against him. Don't know exactly who North's tagger is but maybe today Cripps let loose?

Cripps is $1.45 for 20+ Disposals
Cripps is $2.75 for 25+ Disposals

 

[sneak]

2u Carl h2h @1.52
2u haw vs syd over 112.5 @1.87
1u Carl vs north under 113.5 @1.92

 

[TheJanuaryMan]

Reckon Ben Brown can shake the Blues today with a bag
4+ @$23
5+ @$91
6+ @$101

 

[Sausage Legs]

Just be wary of backing Cripps for disposals, under the 16 minute a quarter, he has yet to notch up 25+ Disposals. Think he is struggling personally with a heavy tag against him. Don't know exactly who North's tagger is but maybe today Cripps let loose?

Cripps is $1.45 for 20+ Disposals
Cripps is $2.75 for 25+ Disposals

Think luke McDonald been doing a job at times