AFL 2020 Brownlow Medal

[offthebusgus]

Understand hackman aren't prolific pollers. But. Barrass at 6s is value in round 12. Clunked everything and was the man. Coaches agreed also with a max 10 votes.
I expect Barrass to be flashing red and backed into fave next time I look.

I backed Liam Ryan @ $51 in this game. Kicked 3 goals and was quite flashy. Also backed Luke Shuey too, seems a real lottery of a game.

 

[mouncey2franklin]

Goldstein won't poll 8 votes for the season let alone in the first 5 rounds

He literally put in some career-best numbers this season (when you account for 40% less total game time i.e shorter season and shorter quarters).

88 clearances is better than his previous best even before you adjust for less game time.

To put that in perspective, Neale had 90 clearances in the 2020 H&A, Boak had 88, Petracca had 65, Steele had 92.

In fairness, his hitouts are down on 2015/16 when he was polling well, but he still tended to have more hitouts than his opponent most weeks.

And in other years he had Higgins, Cunnington, Ziebell (and even Waite) competing with him for votes.

This year they are all non-factors, especially Cunnington and Ziebell.

But I guess we'll wait and see. I've got my bets on so if my Goldstein tip turns out a dud, I'll be the one to pay for it

 

[dontlimitme]

Understand hackman aren't prolific pollers. But. Barrass at 6s is value in round 12. Clunked everything and was the man. Coaches agreed also with a max 10 votes.
I expect Barrass to be flashing red and backed into fave next time I look.

mcgovern was great in this as well, 11 intercept possesions (8 for barass) and is 41$?!

 

[Sausage Legs]

mcgovern was great in this as well, 11 intercept possesions (8 for barass) and is 41$?!

Yeah was good. Afl.com named him best. I backed him heavily in the filling round 13. Killed GWS. Rated him as anything above 1.50 to smash and he's 1.80.

 

[stuziman]

It's flattering some people take so much time looking for things like that with my counts.

You are the benchmark here

 

[squeaky1000]

He literally put in some career-best numbers this season (when you account for 40% less total game time i.e shorter season and shorter quarters).

88 clearances is better than his previous best even before you adjust for less game time.

To put that in perspective, Neale had 90 clearances in the 2020 H&A, Boak had 88, Petracca had 65, Steele had 92.

In fairness, his hitouts are down on 2015/16 when he was polling well, but he still tended to have more hitouts than his opponent most weeks.

And in other years he had Higgins, Cunnington, Ziebell (and even Waite) competing with him for votes.

This year they are all non-factors, especially Cunnington and Ziebell.

But I guess we'll wait and see. I've got my bets on so if my Goldstein tip turns out a dud, I'll be the one to pay for it

I don't disagree he had a very solid year particularly in the first half of it just don't think that will translate into votes. I've got him finishing on about 5, but back yourself in if you like him

 

[Sausage Legs]

BYOB Luke Ryan and Higgins to get 5+ each at 3.50 is good. We've backed ryan in from 34s into 2.75 for one game and he won the medal in another, with small chances in other rounds.

 

[Johnsonator]

Jake Lloyd won Sydney’s B&F... fingers crossed the umpires thought he was more impactful this season

 

[Young Gun #6]

Jake Lloyd won Sydney’s B&F... fingers crossed the umpires thought he was more impactful this season

Is there a list out yet? I know Adams won Collingwood too.

 

[BuddysBiggestFan]

Is there a list out yet? I know Adams won Collingwood too.

Gunston Hawthorn

 

[offthebusgus]

ROB, Daniel, Ridley, Collins, Steele, Petracca all won B&F's too

 

[Young Gun #6]

ROB, Daniel, Ridley, Collins, Steele, Petracca all won B&F's too

Hmm yeah so means nothing in relation to the Brownlow a lot of the time doesn’t it?

Dare say a coach knowing whether a player is playing to his team role is a big difference to catching the umpires attention.

 

[LongBombFromOutside50]

Topsport Matchups:
Wines over Brayshaw
Oliver over Mitchell
Cripps over Walsh
Parker over Adams
@10.88

 

[TheJanuaryMan]

Hmm yeah so means nothing in relation to the Brownlow a lot of the time doesn’t it?

Dare say a coach knowing whether a player is playing to his team role is a big difference to catching the umpires attention.

Using B&F as a Brownlow guide is about as reliable as the AFL Coaches Award (same basic reasoning you correctly mentioned).

 

[jack1231]

Topsport Matchups:
Wines over Brayshaw
Oliver over Mitchell
Cripps over Walsh
Parker over Adams
@10.88

how do you multi these at topsports pls?

 

[jack1231]

so the Petracca rumour is to do with him being asked to stay in qld for the actual event because a lot is prerecorded but they need him there on the night ? saw the text anyway. every year or 2 a rumour pops up, recall sam mitchell etc.

 

[Young Gun #6]

so the Petracca rumour is to do with him being asked to stay in qld for the actual event because a lot is prerecorded but they need him there on the night ? saw the text anyway. every year or 2 a rumour pops up, recall sam mitchell etc.

If Trac beat Neale there would be some huge questions marks occcuring.

 

[LongBombFromOutside50]

how do you multi these at topsports pls?

If you call up they will let you do it. Too many people trying to place dependent multis is the reason they removed the functionality from the app/website

 

[jack1231]

If Trac beat Neale there would be some huge questions marks occcuring.

it jumps to the conclusion pretty quickly that hes been asked to stay 'because he must have won or tied'

 

[Johnsonator]

Using B&F as a Brownlow guide is about as reliable as the AFL Coaches Award (same basic reasoning you correctly mentioned).

Haha you guys take my comments so literally.
Was simply saying fingers crossed umpires viewed him as impactful as Sydney did cause I have him in several multis @6-1

 

[LIONS15v]

Haha you guys take my comments so literally.
Was simply saying fingers crossed umpires viewed him as impactful as Sydney did cause I have him in several multis @6-1

Bit of a hail mary?
Half backs generally dont poll well, unless they play midfield as well.

Have a look at docherty of seasons past.
But I'd say the value in the sydney market is with papley/heeney

 

[Sportsbet]

14 leg 10+ votes multi @ 23.25 powered. If any of these guys get less than 10 votes, they should be ashamed of themselves:
Macrae
Danger
Dusty
Merrett
Bont
Fyfe
Menegola
Parker
Wines
Pendlebury
Guthrie
Cripps
Gawn
Oliver

 

[Sportsbet]

ultra safe 10+ vote multi that should be illegal. Give me one reason why I shouldn't just unload half the savings account on this to double my money:

Parker, Bont, Merrett, Danger, Macrae, Dusty, Gawn 10+ @ 2.17

 

[NYRB]

Round 4: Brisbane v Adelaide

Im going to be contrary here and say Lachie Neale won't poll 3 votes here in Round 4 against the Crows. Neale only had 1 kick up until quarter time. Think there were 3 players better than him there: Berry, McCluggage and Brad Crouch. Could make a strong case for Lyons and Robinson playing better than Neale as well. Shocking kicking in front of goal, means Neale doesn't poll 3 here. This is the game where he kicks 0 goals and 6 behinds.

I came up with the following numbers for this game, assuming the same weighted factor as my previously reviewed game in GC V St.K.



What I think Neale failed in this game, is he didn't score a goal and he didn't have a kick that landed for a mark Inside 50. I feel at best Lachie Neale polls 1 vote here. McCluggage stands out for me, and snags that 1 vote because of his goal. Had McCluggage kicked a 2nd goal, he would have been a "no brainer" for best on ground. McCluggage gets penalised as well for his bad kicking with 1 goal 5 behinds. The old saying "bad shooting for goal is bad footy". And the umpires will notice that.

In wet conditions, Berry's 78.3% disposal efficiency , made him the best player. He played the game like a day match.

My system doesn't reward players for kicking behinds , nor does it penalise a player for kicking a behind.

My ratings system has
J. Berry 17.40
Brad Crouch 16.62
McCluggage 16.25
Neale 16.05

This will be the biggest shock of the night and my big upset of this count. I'm going to go:

3 J Berry
2 B Crouch
1 McCluggage


If Brad Crouch polls here, you also have to just about say good bye to the Lachie Neale to beat Adelaide bets as well.

 

[BOOYAH1987]

My bloody Sportsbet account has been marked up and I can't get more than $15 on a Footy bet.

Brownlow Medal - Extra Markets - Banana Bender - Jarryd Lyons $1.80 easiest $1.80 you will ever make.

$11 for a Top 10 finish is decent value as well.

why has it been marked up? What happened?