AFL 2020 Brownlow Medal

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What are people’s thoughts on Matt Rowell to win GC Brownlow count at $3 (tab)/$3.5 (beteasy)? I know he’s a first year player but he’s already on 3 votes so if he can get abother 6 votes he’s probably home and hosed. I was surprised he wasn’t a shorter fav when markets re-opened yesterday!!
 
Geeves Train said:
ownlow count at $3 (tab)/$3.5 (beteasy)? I know he’s a first year player but he’s already on 3 votes so if he can get another 6 votes he’s probably home and hosed.
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Hes got 3 votes already... since Ablett left there hasnt been anyone to get 10+

2019: Swallow - 7 votes
2018: Fiorini/Lynch - 5 votes
2017 and before - Ablett was there

Biggest danger I think would be Weller (or Swallow if he plays ok) - looks to have taken a step up and was eye catching in rd 2... he has only ever polled 5 votes though and 0 last year... Summary would be hes a very good chance - I still don't think Gold Coast win more then 5 games this year (big chance to go 2 in a row this weekend), so 8-10 votes might be enough to win the count
 
Just looks so much more value at $3 Tab than the likes of Kelly (GWS $3), Billing’s (St K, $2.50), Cunnington ($2.60), etc.

Easy to say after a weekend BOG but if he does that once more this season and gets to 6, as you have flagged, that could easily win. I thoguht he’d be maybe $2 after the weekend, BetEasy still $3.50!!!
 

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Geeves Train said:
Just looks so much more value at $3 Tab than the likes of Kelly (GWS $3), Billing’s (St K, $2.50), Cunnington ($2.60), etc.

Easy to say after a weekend BOG but if he does that once more this season and gets to 6, as you have flagged, that could easily win. I thoguht he’d be maybe $2 after the weekend, BetEasy still $3.50!!!
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How long has it been since a first year player has won a club Brownlow count? I'd hesitate to say it wouldn't have happened in the past 25 years (and only saying that timeframe as not sure whether Buckley topped Brisbane in 1993)
 
ROUND 2

RICH v COLL
3 S Pendlebury (Coll)
2 J Howe (Coll)
1 S Sidebottom (Coll)

GEEL v HAW
3 J Selwood (Geel)
2 G Ablett (Geel)
1 P Dangerfield (Geel)

BRIS v FREO
3 L Neale (Bris)
2 M Walters (Freo)
1 N Fyfe (Freo)

CARL v MELB
3 C Petracca (Melb)
2 M Gawn (Melb)
1 P Cripps (Carl)

PA v ADEL
3 T Boak (PA)
2 C Rozee (PA)
1 S Motlop (PA)

GC v WCE
3 M Rowell (GC)
2 L Weller (GC)
1 H Greenwood (GC)

GWS v NM
3 T Goldstein (NM)
2 J Polec (NM)
1 J Simpkin (NM)

SYD v ESS
3 Z Merrett (Ess)
2 A McGrath (Ess)
1 L Parker (Syd)

ST K v WB
3 J Billings (St K)
2 Z Jones (St K)
1 S Ross (St K)

LEADERBOARD

4: L Neale (Bris); S Pendlebury (Coll); T Boak (PA)
 
TheJanuaryMan said:
How long has it been since a first year player has won a club Brownlow count? I'd hesitate to say it wouldn't have happened in the past 25 years (and only saying that timeframe as not sure whether Buckley topped Brisbane in 1993)
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Sam Walsh got 6 last year to tie runner/up with Murphy, both Walsh and Rowell have carried the “best 1st year playing since...” tag. Rowell ticks plenty of boxes already: big body mid, easily recognisable, no Patrick Cripps to steal votes, etc etc.
 
Geeves Train said:
Sam Walsh got 6 last year to tie runner/up with Murphy, both Walsh and Rowell have carried the “best 1st year playing since...” tag. Rowell ticks plenty of boxes already: big body mid, easily recognisable, no Patrick Cripps to steal votes, etc etc.
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I think he is a very strong chance, and right now leading :).. definitely worth a punt more then some of the guys in teams with loads of players e.g. GWS
 
Hey all. Gonna get right into this again this year. Became a really fun hobby for me and made a stack $ last year.

The shortened season will make it interesting. It probably opens the field up a bit? Only 15 rounds to go already. It makes injuries a much bigger deal. Get injured (2+ weeks) and miss out on the Brownlow I reckon....

My money is on L Neale @ $10

I'm also gonna back in some old stayers - pendles, Higgins and boak. More for cash out plays and top 10 plays.

I think 16 votes will make the top 10.

Last year I called Tim Kelly (before most people I might add) very early on and made a fair bit on cash out.

This year my smokey is Higgins, don't ask me why I think he is a goldilocks and very potent polling % of recent years. Usually injury sets him back. It's easier to say this after a 2/3 vote game on the weekend though.... if he doesn't get injured $5 for top 10 is OK.

Someone of the likes of Sidebottom could win this year if he fired. Many others in that's category too which present value. It's a fine line between getting in early at value and just throwing money away. Bit of luck too I guess.

Although if Cripps, Neale or Fyfe fire it's theirs to lose. There's no doubting that.

Team votes -
Not buying into the Rowell hype for GC votes yet. Longggg way to go. Creates value for others at least
Boak most Port
Higgins most NM team votes
Billings most st kilda
I think Melbourne most votes is very open- not buying petracca hype either

Sorry posting from a phone so a bit disjointed
 
Round 2
Selwood 3 votes
Ablett, danger, parfitt, miers

Neale 2-3
Walters 2-3
Fyfe 1

Jones 2-3
Billings 2-3

Pendles 3
Howe, daicos, sidebottom
 
onthehill24 said:
Round 3
Smith 3 wingers 2
Mcrae 3 Daniel's 2
IMO
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Last night would be a nightmare to give votes to IMO without having stats to look at. I wouldn't even be surprised if Bont gets 3.

Thurs nights game about 4 hawks players in my eyes who could take the 3,2,1 in any order
 
jack 231 said:
Last night would be a nightmare to give votes to IMO without having stats to look at. I wouldn't even be surprised if Bont gets 3.

Thurs nights game about 4 hawks players in my eyes who could take the 3,2,1 in any order
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Not sure bont gets votes for 16 possies 1 goal and
30 odd wrestles
 

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From my stable
Sidebottom $81 into $21
Boak $67 into $17
Pendlebury $51 to $41
Higgins $51 to $51
Neale $10 to $7

A good round

Concerned this Essendon saga is about to derail the whole season... if covid is as infectious as they say more will test positive. What a shame. Fingers crossed
 
jack 231 said:
From my stable
Sidebottom $81 into $21
Boak $67 into $17
Pendlebury $51 to $41
Higgins $51 to $51
Neale $10 to $7

A good round

Concerned this Essendon saga is about to derail the whole season... if covid is as infectious as they say more will test positive. What a shame. Fingers crossed
Click to expand...
Sitting pretty there with Boak & Neale especially.
 
Could still get Boak @ $34's this morning. now into $15.

45% ROI already. Spewing I only put $30 on shouldve trusted my gut and gone harder.
 
jack 231 said:
Could still get Boak @ $34's this morning. now into $15.

45% ROI already. Spewing I only put $30 on shouldve trusted my gut and gone harder.
Click to expand...

Ah, ROI is currently 0% as he hasn’t won anything and therefore you have zero return on your investment at the moment. Should he win the Brownlow you would be correct in saying your ROI from the bet was 8000%
 
Geeves Train said:
Ah, ROI is currently 0% as he hasn’t won anything and therefore you have zero return on your investment at the moment. Should he win the Brownlow you would be correct in saying your ROI from the bet was 8000%
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Boak should be leading it right now, but we are only 3 games into a 17 round season... Neale and Fyfe hot on his tail and Pendles also looking ok... if Cripps polls like he did at the start of last year (picking up 2s and 3s where I judged him to have 1 or 0) he will also he right in it
 
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