Walsh to beat Gawn was in sportsbet traders best multi LOL
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AFL 2020 Brownlow Medal
- Thread starter TheJanuaryMan
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Walsh to beat Gawn was in sportsbet traders best multi LOL
Walsh beating Gawn would be more surprising than Neale somehow losing the brownlow imo.
What are everyone's thoughts on the Teams O/U market on sportsbet?
- Mar 27, 2018
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Where can I find the SportsBet traders bets for an absolute laugh
he gave his best multi just before on SEN if you or anyone were interested:
team votes:
Laird
Adams
Merrett
Petracca
Bont
Nic Nat
But I don’t know why we care about his tips?
Huge fan of GWS > 45.5
And like Dogs >61.5 and Richmond <54.5
Rest are too tight to call to my vote count.
h2h multi lock - Walsh over Gawn + Ryan over De Geoy + Green over Rowell at $14.62
teams multi lock (their best) - Adams + Bont + Fyfe $3.56
teams multi lock (2nd best I guess) - Adams + Bont + Menegola + Kelly $22.12
over/under multi lock - Macrae U + Fyfe O + Boak U + NicNat U + Neale U $23.54
Analysis Paralysis
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Does anyone need another count? Here's my 100 run simulation output:
| Team Rank -> | ||||||
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | Team Total (all) |
| Brisbane | Neale, Lachie (25.2) | Lyons, Jarryd (7.5) | McCluggage, Hugh (5.4) | Berry, Jarrod (5.4) | Zorko, Dayne (4.7) | 61.0 |
| St Kilda | Steele, Jack (19.9) | Jones, Zak (8.6) | Marshall, Rowan (8.1) | Billings, Jack (7.6) | Butler, Dan (5) | 60.4 |
| Port Adelaide | Boak, Travis (18.2) | Wines, Ollie (12.6) | Rockliff, Tom (11.4) | Dixon, Charlie (7) | Gray, Robbie (4.6) | 75.5 |
| Melbourne | Petracca, Christian (17.3) | Oliver, Clayton (13.1) | Gawn, Max (12.2) | Viney, Jack (6.1) | May, Steven (3.9) | 59.5 |
| Western Bulldogs | Macrae, Jack (15.6) | Bontempelli, Marcus (10.9) | Hunter, Lachie (6.4) | English, Tim (5.8) | Smith, Bailey (5.4) | 61.9 |
| Richmond | Martin, Dustin (15.4) | Short, Jayden (6.4) | Bolton, Shai (5.2) | Lambert, Kane (4.3) | Cotchin, Trent (4.2) | 49.6 |
| Geelong | Menegola, Sam (15.3) | Dangerfield, Patrick (14.8) | Guthrie, Cameron (10.8) | Hawkins, Tom (8.7) | Duncan, Mitch (5.4) | 72.1 |
| Essendon | Merrett, Zach (14.2) | McGrath, Andrew (8.5) | Shiel, Dylan (6) | Ridley, Jordan (2.3) | Zaharakis, David (2.1) | 40.2 |
| Fremantle | Fyfe, Nat (13.9) | Brayshaw, Andrew (7.7) | Walters, Michael (7.4) | Mundy, David (6.5) | Acres, Blake (3.4) | 50.5 |
| Sydney | Parker, Luke (13.4) | Kennedy, Josh (4.8) | Papley, Tom (4.1) | Heeney, Isaac (3.9) | Lloyd, Jake (3.8) | 36.9 |
| West Coast | Gaff, Andrew (11.5) | Sheed, Dom (9.3) | Kelly, Tim (9.1) | Naitanui, Nic (7.4) | Kennedy, Josh (5.2) | 58.3 |
| Collingwood | Adams, Taylor (11) | Pendlebury, Scott (10.1) | Treloar, Adam (7) | Grundy, Brodie (6.8) | Crisp, Jack (5.1) | 61.6 |
| Carlton | Cripps, Patrick (10.4) | Walsh, Sam (8.3) | Martin, Jack (3.5) | Curnow, Ed (3.4) | Murphy, Marc (2.8) | 47.0 |
| GWS | Kelly, Josh (9.8) | Greene, Toby (8.4) | Whitfield, Lachie (7.7) | Perryman, Harry (5.5) | Coniglio, Stephen (4.9) | 53.3 |
| Hawthorn | Mitchell, Tom (8.5) | Wingard, Chad (6.2) | Gunston, Jack (4.5) | OMeara, Jaeger (2.9) | Smith, Isaac (2.5) | 27.7 |
| NMFC | Simpkin, Jy (8.2) | Anderson, Jed (8.1) | Polec, Jared (5.4) | Higgins, Shaun (4.9) | Goldstein, Todd (4.8) | 39.0 |
| Adelaide | Crouch, Matt (7.5) | Laird, Rory (6.6) | OBrien, Reilly (3.6) | Crouch, Brad (3.4) | Sholl, Lachlan (2.1) | 28.1 |
| Gold Coast | Rowell, Matt (7.3) | Greenwood, Hugh (4.9) | Miller, Touk (4.8) | Witts, Jarrod (4.5) | Anderson, Noah (2.8) | 35.5 |
- Mar 27, 2018
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- Collingwood
- Other Teams
- Cleveland Browns, Tony Ferguson
Gee this count would be great for me personally lol
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He cleaned up on a big multi two years back.
Me too!
shepherdodin
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Personally think Rich is the smokey on this one. 22.5 means 5 to beat Neales 27.
I'm doing some analysis of the handicap market, but I'm a bit behind on work now. Will post on Saturday.
Last edited:
- May 6, 2009
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I like ladbrokes brownlow handicap market for some value:
Boak +5.5 @ $8 and
Petracca +6.5 @ $11
I think the rest of the $11 options are coming from too far back without enough handicap advantage to haul in neale.
I personally don't thing neale at +0 @ $10 is too much of a threat. (Ie I think someone will get within 5-6 votes of him- naturally im hoping its trac or boak).
Despite neale's dominance, i think the large cut to games played this year may put the brakes on a massive margin win.
I realise that it's a double edged sword- and less games can also mean less chances for others to pull back votes on him, but statistically- you're going to have higher likelihood of a bigger margin, the more games that are played.
Boak +5.5 @ $8 and
Petracca +6.5 @ $11
I think the rest of the $11 options are coming from too far back without enough handicap advantage to haul in neale.
I personally don't thing neale at +0 @ $10 is too much of a threat. (Ie I think someone will get within 5-6 votes of him- naturally im hoping its trac or boak).
Despite neale's dominance, i think the large cut to games played this year may put the brakes on a massive margin win.
I realise that it's a double edged sword- and less games can also mean less chances for others to pull back votes on him, but statistically- you're going to have higher likelihood of a bigger margin, the more games that are played.
I'd save your money on this market, just way too many chances of ties and given the low vote count it could take just one random 3 voter to win the group. It's an absolute raffle but you are paying commission on it (the % margin that the bookies make on it)
Lol wonder who'd be dumb enough to listen to that show, they're pretty much just being salesmen
Yeah was looking at Rich too but I don't think he'll poll over 1 in R.17 and then isn't even a certainty for the 3 in R.18 (even though he should get it).
Parker and JPK were definitely better in R.17 just whether they get 3 and 2 in a loss then even arguably Lyons might outpoll Rich for a vote too.
shepherdodin
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I agree, Neale is my pick. But I think this one is only a 2 horse race between Rich/Neale.
LionsOrDieTrion
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Lyons has to get at least 2, single handedly kept us in the game in the first half and was good all game.
Not sure if anyone realised but TAB now have top 5,10,20 multis avaliable for the top guys.
Doesn’t include ineligible so Merrett not included and Fyfe is $2.80 for top 10.
Crazy good value.
Can multi with Dusty, Danger, Trac all top 10 and Bont and Macrae top 20.
Don’t forget it’s basically a free spot in the top 10 and 20 that Merrett would’ve taken but isn’t factored in as he’s ineligible.
Worth chucking a heap on this. They’re about to open up their 10,15+ multi market looking at the machine when I went in (avaliable but no markets yet).
Doesn’t include ineligible so Merrett not included and Fyfe is $2.80 for top 10.
Crazy good value.
Can multi with Dusty, Danger, Trac all top 10 and Bont and Macrae top 20.
Don’t forget it’s basically a free spot in the top 10 and 20 that Merrett would’ve taken but isn’t factored in as he’s ineligible.
Worth chucking a heap on this. They’re about to open up their 10,15+ multi market looking at the machine when I went in (avaliable but no markets yet).
ordinarypunter
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pendlebury_10
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Just had a look myself, I believe ineligible players are included.
Makes no sense as to why SB analysts would be giving away their overall count and tips for winning when they actually want you to lose.
I think for a lot of those multis they deliberately have one leg falling short. Why would anyone trust their tips?
Gazza Guru
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Spot on. As if they will give away exactly what their count says after paying guys to watch games and do their votes. Their sole purpose is to make $ from punters. Bookies love multis as the %s work so much more in their favour than single bets.
- Mar 27, 2018
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Fyfe top 10, Macrae top 10 & Trac top 3 $11.76
Give it to me baby
Give it to me baby
Ah right was wondering why they excluded Merrett from the market then. Doesn't make any sense.
$2.80 for Fyfe top 10 still over the odds anyway, markets as a whole outside of Gawn better than Sportsbet.
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