AFL 2020 Brownlow Medal

[NonPhixion]

Makes no sense as to why SB analysts would be giving away their overall count and tips for winning when they actually want you to lose.

I think for a lot of those multis they deliberately have one leg falling short. Why would anyone trust their tips?

This. If you don’t like those bets it’s a good sign.
the other thing is too by now all the value is gone from these markets. Nathan Brown touting how he likes Trac top 5 $1.33, which I do too but it opened at $1.70, they share some good insights because they know the value is now dead in the market but don’t follow the multis, may as well sift through a dumpster in the CBD

 

[Young Gun #6]

Fyfe top 10, Macrae top 10 & Trac top 3 $11.76
Give it to me baby

Throw in Boak top 5 and Bont top 20 at $17.31 and you're basically printing money.

 

[Young Gun #6]

Neale Winner
Boak Top 5
Fyfe Top 10
Dusty Top 10
Dangerfield Top 10
Bont Top 20
Macrae Top 20

$14.42

Talk me out of it...

History is on my side just going with the proven pollers. Worth a multi when there's no doubt to any one of the above's polling capability and in any 50/50 toss up's the umpires will nearly always go to these proven pollers.

 

[LIONS15v]

Fyfe top 10, Macrae top 10 & Trac top 3 $11.76
Give it to me baby

Made a smallish play on
Top 5: trac, steele. Top 10: merrett, macrae. Top 20: gawn($1.90 is just too good for gawn, SB have clearly underestimated the ruckmen)

That one all up is 12.89 with powerplay.
Cautious about the deadheat though.

I went big on my 10+ vote multi, it's pretty much guaranteed.

 

[NonPhixion]

Lads I’m raising the bat.
just tipped over 100 different bets here. Those TAB multis felt like a reverse sweep for 6

 

[shepherdodin]

Fyfe top 10, Macrae top 10 & Trac top 3 $11.76
Give it to me baby

Add Neale Winner as a 25% fattener.

 

[NYRB]

AFL Round 14: Gold Coast v St.Kilda

3 Steele
2 Butler
1 Billings


Butler kicked the match winner and played an eye catching game with 4 goals and the sealer. Billings took a crucial mark to deny the Suns a play to go up forward and take the lead. Greenwood was the best player for Gold Coast and is harsh not to poll a vote here. Steele and Butler multiple goals make them stand out more. The majority of Butler's goal were Dustin Martin like and stood out like a beacon.

Below is my predicted scoring model and collected stats of the game:




My odds to get the 3 votes here?

Steele $2.98
Butler $3.65
Billings $6
Greenwood $13
Rankine $26
Other Player $120

(PS this game should be round 10)

 

[Sausage Legs]

Lads I’m raising the bat.
just tipped over 100 different bets here. Those TAB multis felt like a reverse sweep for 6

100. Cute.

 

[NYRB]

The 2 games I have watched over the last 24 hours involving St.Kilda (against Richmond and Gold Coast) , you would expect Butler to poll votes. You could even make a case for him to poll 6 votes from both games.

 

[Analysis Paralysis]

Just having too much fun now!

SportsBet prices as of 15/10/2020

W

T

L

Price

Expected Return

W

T

L

Price

Expected Return

Petracca, Christian

28%​

4%​

68%​

$ 1.65

$ 0.50

Mundy, David

80%​

11%​

9%​

$ 1.20

$ 1.03

Steele, Jack

68%​

4%​

28%​

$ 2.18

$ 1.52

Liberatore, Tom

9%​

11%​

80%​

$ 4.50

$ 0.64

W

T

L

Price

Expected Return

W

T

L

Price

Expected Return

Oliver, Clayton

77%​

7%​

16%​

$ 1.70

$ 1.36

Kelly, Tim

21%​

5%​

74%​

$ 2.00

$ 0.47

Cripps, Patrick

16%​

7%​

77%​

$ 2.10

$ 0.41

Rockliff, Tom

74%​

5%​

21%​

$ 1.75

$ 1.34

W

T

L

Price

Expected Return

W

T

L

Price

Expected Return

Dangerfield, Patrick

54%​

10%​

36%​

$ 1.70

$ 1.01

Duncan, Mitch

44%​

9%​

47%​

$ 1.70

$ 0.83

Fyfe, Nat

36%​

10%​

54%​

$ 2.10

$ 0.86

McCluggage, Hugh

47%​

9%​

44%​

$ 2.10

$ 1.08

W

T

L

Price

Expected Return

W

T

L

Price

Expected Return

Parker, Luke

47%​

16%​

37%​

$ 1.65

$ 0.91

Anderson, Jed

91%​

2%​

6%​

$ 1.50

$ 1.39

Wines, Ollie

37%​

16%​

47%​

$ 2.20

$ 0.99

Miller, Touk

6%​

2%​

91%​

$ 2.50

$ 0.19

W

T

L

Price

Expected Return

W

T

L

Price

Expected Return

Guthrie, Cameron

9%​

9%​

83%​

$ 2.75

$ 0.36

Ryan, Liam

11%​

14%​

75%​

$ 2.00

$ 0.36

Macrae, Jack

83%​

9%​

9%​

$ 1.40

$ 1.22

de Goey, Jordan

75%​

14%​

11%​

$ 1.77

$ 1.45

W

T

L

Price

Expected Return

W

T

L

Price

Expected Return

Brayshaw, Andrew

32%​

9%​

59%​

$ 1.87

$ 0.68

Worpel, James

2%​

6%​

91%​

$ 3.75

$ 0.21

McGrath, Andrew

59%​

9%​

32%​

$ 1.87

$ 1.19

Smith, Bailey

91%​

6%​

2%​

$ 1.25

$ 1.18

W

T

L

Price

Expected Return

W

T

L

Price

Expected Return

Greene, Toby

65%​

10%​

25%​

$ 2.25

$ 1.58

Walsh, Sam

12%​

4%​

84%​

$ 3.25

$ 0.46

Rowell, Matt

25%​

10%​

65%​

$ 1.60

$ 0.47

Gawn, Max

84%​

4%​

12%​

$ 1.33

$ 1.14

W

T

L

Price

Expected Return

Butler, Dan

58%​

17%​

25%​

$ 1.33

$ 0.89

Martin, Jack

25%​

17%​

58%​

$ 3.25

$ 1.08

 

[NYRB]

if he can get at least 2 votes from those matches against Geelong/St.Kilda, I reckon he wins the count without Rowell.

 

[Islanda22]

Does anyone need another count? Here's my 100 run simulation output:

	Team Rank ->
Team	1	2	3	4	5	Team Total (all)
Brisbane	Neale, Lachie (25.2)	Lyons, Jarryd (7.5)	McCluggage, Hugh (5.4)	Berry, Jarrod (5.4)	Zorko, Dayne (4.7)	61.0​
St Kilda	Steele, Jack (19.9)	Jones, Zak (8.6)	Marshall, Rowan (8.1)	Billings, Jack (7.6)	Butler, Dan (5)	60.4​
Port Adelaide	Boak, Travis (18.2)	Wines, Ollie (12.6)	Rockliff, Tom (11.4)	Dixon, Charlie (7)	Gray, Robbie (4.6)	75.5​
Melbourne	Petracca, Christian (17.3)	Oliver, Clayton (13.1)	Gawn, Max (12.2)	Viney, Jack (6.1)	May, Steven (3.9)	59.5​
Western Bulldogs	Macrae, Jack (15.6)	Bontempelli, Marcus (10.9)	Hunter, Lachie (6.4)	English, Tim (5.8)	Smith, Bailey (5.4)	61.9​
Richmond	Martin, Dustin (15.4)	Short, Jayden (6.4)	Bolton, Shai (5.2)	Lambert, Kane (4.3)	Cotchin, Trent (4.2)	49.6​
Geelong	Menegola, Sam (15.3)	Dangerfield, Patrick (14.8)	Guthrie, Cameron (10.8)	Hawkins, Tom (8.7)	Duncan, Mitch (5.4)	72.1​
Essendon	Merrett, Zach (14.2)	McGrath, Andrew (8.5)	Shiel, Dylan (6)	Ridley, Jordan (2.3)	Zaharakis, David (2.1)	40.2​
Fremantle	Fyfe, Nat (13.9)	Brayshaw, Andrew (7.7)	Walters, Michael (7.4)	Mundy, David (6.5)	Acres, Blake (3.4)	50.5​
Sydney	Parker, Luke (13.4)	Kennedy, Josh (4.8)	Papley, Tom (4.1)	Heeney, Isaac (3.9)	Lloyd, Jake (3.8)	36.9​
West Coast	Gaff, Andrew (11.5)	Sheed, Dom (9.3)	Kelly, Tim (9.1)	Naitanui, Nic (7.4)	Kennedy, Josh (5.2)	58.3​
Collingwood	Adams, Taylor (11)	Pendlebury, Scott (10.1)	Treloar, Adam (7)	Grundy, Brodie (6.8)	Crisp, Jack (5.1)	61.6​
Carlton	Cripps, Patrick (10.4)	Walsh, Sam (8.3)	Martin, Jack (3.5)	Curnow, Ed (3.4)	Murphy, Marc (2.8)	47.0​
GWS	Kelly, Josh (9.8)	Greene, Toby (8.4)	Whitfield, Lachie (7.7)	Perryman, Harry (5.5)	Coniglio, Stephen (4.9)	53.3​
Hawthorn	Mitchell, Tom (8.5)	Wingard, Chad (6.2)	Gunston, Jack (4.5)	OMeara, Jaeger (2.9)	Smith, Isaac (2.5)	27.7​
NMFC	Simpkin, Jy (8.2)	Anderson, Jed (8.1)	Polec, Jared (5.4)	Higgins, Shaun (4.9)	Goldstein, Todd (4.8)	39.0​
Adelaide	Crouch, Matt (7.5)	Laird, Rory (6.6)	OBrien, Reilly (3.6)	Crouch, Brad (3.4)	Sholl, Lachlan (2.1)	28.1​
Gold Coast	Rowell, Matt (7.3)	Greenwood, Hugh (4.9)	Miller, Touk (4.8)	Witts, Jarrod (4.5)	Anderson, Noah (2.8)	35.5​

Going off this for the Team Votes Winner -

BL - Lyons $1.35
Carl - Cripps $2
Ess - Z Merrett $1.12
Freo - Fyfe $1.22
GC - Rowell $1.10
Haw - Mitchell $1.25
Melb - Petracca $1.08
WB - Macrae $1.80

Multi is $11 boosted on SB

 

[NYRB]

i do feel that in games that are close, leading goalscorers, who kick sealers in the climax of the moment, can poll. But had Butler only had 0 or 1 goals before that clincher, he wouldn't have polled. He had a great all round game against the Suns.

 

[stuziman]

Lol wonder who'd be dumb enough to listen to that show, they're pretty much just being salesmen

Agreed, it's a conflict of interest for sure. HERE is a multi we love but we want it to lose

 

[Benjo_]

Macrae, Oliver and Walsh to combine for 40 or more votes @29 (BYO) - Not sure if this has only just popped up but surely it's better than a $29 shot? If it's a high count it could legit get up

 

[LIONS15v]

Going off this for the Team Votes Winner -

BL - Lyons $1.35
Carl - Cripps $2
Ess - Z Merrett $1.12
Freo - Fyfe $1.22
GC - Rowell $1.10
Haw - Mitchell $1.25
Melb - Petracca $1.08
WB - Macrae $1.80

Multi is $11 boosted on SB

Not bad, I had a very small play on something slightly similar, but I purposely left out wingard and macrae (even though I have macrae just beating bont).

Wingard could win, he's at $3 only because he's up against a brownlow medallist. I think there could easily be a tie at hawks and to a lesser extent, bulldogs

 

[Johnsonator]

Macrae, Oliver and Walsh to combine for 40 or more votes @29 (BYO) - Not sure if this has only just popped up but surely it's better than a $29 shot? If it's a high count it could legit get up

16 Macrae
11 Walsh
11 Oliver

Currently have them on 38, hmm.. worth $10

 

[LionsOrDieTrion]

16 Macrae
11 Walsh
11 Oliver

Currently have them on 38, hmm.. worth $10

What do you have Cripps on?

 

[Mrose45]

16 Macrae
11 Walsh
11 Oliver

Currently have them on 38, hmm.. worth $10

Definitely not

 

[LIONS15v]

Agreed, it's a conflict of interest for sure. HERE is a multi we love but we want it to lose

Beteasy's footy fill up with jacob Wilson and jay clark was such a good show though.. and funny. You just had to know which tips to filter out because they did like to hype things up here and there

 

[Walshy_The_Goat]

if he can get at least 2 votes from those matches against Geelong/St.Kilda, I reckon he wins the count without Rowell.

View attachment 985852

Awesome value without Rowell! Nice pick up over at TABTouch!

I think there's a high chance of there being a tie at GC for 2nd place, but halved odds of $6.50 means it is still worth an outlay - but nothing too major.

I added in Fyfe + Merrett Most Team Votes, alongside Boak Top 5 in a multi to boost the value to $9.99 and chucked on a loose $20.

 

[Sportsbet]

Lads I’m raising the bat.
just tipped over 100 different bets here. Those TAB multis felt like a reverse sweep for 6

thought you already filled your boots days ago haha.

 

[LionsOrDieTrion]

Might load up on Neale winner, boak top 5, trac and Steele top 10, bont and macrae top 20 @2.58

 

[stuziman]

Beteasy's footy fill up with jacob Wilson and jay clark was such a good show though.. and funny. You just had to know which tips to filter out because they did like to hype things up here and there

Oh yep, that show was good but they are media people not traders...This show you have traders directly spruking multis and bets, it's bizarre.

 

[Benjo_]

16 Macrae
11 Walsh
11 Oliver

Currently have them on 38, hmm.. worth $10

If you care I've collected 11 counts and 4/11 of them have this getting up