2020 FA, Draft and Trade HYPOTHETICAL thread...now with new DFA speculation!

[Strapping Young Lad]

A good reference point for picks.

 

[SSSSSS]

Breust and Gunston are our best 2 players who are old enough to be worth something, and probably too old to be in our next premiership side. Gotta put up something if you want to get something.

I’d have no issue trading either, provided they wanted to go and chase the cash/flags, and we got something good for them.
Pushing them out would be bad for the culture and reputation.

Gets thrown up every year and it's just not happening.

A side that can't kick goals shouldn't be looking to trade their only two players who can actually kick goals.

 

[burner1]

1. If we finish below Sydney how much can we extract for them to swap for pick 3 (so we cant bid on Campbell?). Think GWS gave up a future pick last year worth around pick 12. If we ended up with around pick 14 (eg pies pick - who Sydney would have to trade for) on top of pick 4 is that about right?

2. If (and I say if) Gunston wanted to move (maybe offered a big 3 year retirement contract) what would be fair? Eg if brissie wanted him is Gunston, pick 21 and 45 to brissie for pick 18, 19 and 41 enough (ie a late first and a few pick upgrades) for a guy who turn 29 this year?

3. If we want to pick up a younger mid from another club who is the best target? Caldwell/hately/collier-Dawkins/Ely smith? Is a late 2nd/3rd about right?

4. Same for talls - who is potentially available, fits us best, and views on cost? Eg Peter Wright? Allir Allir? I note our need for talls may somewhat depend on who falls to us in draft.

 

[burner1]

Gets thrown up every year and it's just not happening.

A side that can't kick goals shouldn't be looking to trade their only two players who can actually kick goals.

At the same time a club who’s highly unlikely to win a flag in next 3 years and with quite a lot of list holes needs to consider what it can get for guys with probably 2-3 years left of elite footy.

Never thought I see Mitchell/Lewis/hodge play elsewhere.

Both Breust and Gunston are contracted so it’s up to them.

But if offer is right, who knows? A couple of extra hundred thousand suddenly looks very attractive at end of career.

And this is the hypothetical thread.

 

[sohsam]

At the same time a club who’s highly unlikely to win a flag in next 3 years and with quite a lot of list holes needs to consider what it can get for guys with probably 2-3 years left of elite footy.

Never thought I see Mitchell/Lewis/hodge play elsewhere.

Both Breust and Gunston are contracted so it’s up to them.

But if offer is right, who knows? A couple of extra hundred thousand suddenly looks very attractive at end of career.

And this is the hypothetical thread.

exactly, I thought we still have Lewis/Paton/TOB/Hardwicke/Walker/etc, they may not be a graders, except Paton (if not injured), but as you said if we are not competing next 2-3 years, can be a waste. Then again you can question acquisitions such as JOM, Mitchell, Wingard, although they are slightly younger.

 

[Brishawk]

Where is this talk of our 2nd rounder for Jye Caldwell coming from?

Note the thread title

 

[Blackhawk42]

We lasted 21 posts people! Not too bad!!

I don't want him to go more than anybody else on this board. The reality though is that we need a reset and our only players worth enough to get something decent return are Punky, Gunston, Mitchell, Wingard, O'Meara, Worpel and Sicily. I can't see the last 5 on that list going anywhere, but unfortunately I can see a world where Breust and Gunston are traded.

 

[Howe Amazing]

I think Cousins will be traded one of the few young guys that have currency that we are well stocked with (ie Jaeger, Titch, Worps, Finn). If he stays great too

 

[Millsie69]

Wonder if Sydney would take pick 3 for Tom McCartin or James Rowbottom and pick 4?

 

[MrPremiership]

Wonder if Sydney would take pick 3 for Tom McCartin or James Rowbottom and pick 4?

why though?

 

[Millsie69]

why though?

Because there may not be much difference among the top talent in this draft. So why not get in another quality young player from another team looking to move up in the draft, whilst still keeping a top end pick?

 

[Spursfan]

Wonder if Sydney would take pick 3 for Tom McCartin or James Rowbottom and pick 4?

Nah I reckon they'd be pretty happy with those two

 

[Hot Diggity]

Trade Tom Mitchell.

 

[extractasam]

Because there may not be much difference among the top talent in this draft. So why not get in another quality young player from another team looking to move up in the draft, whilst still keeping a top end pick?

With so many academy selections on the table this year and clubs most likely clamouring for middle of the draft picks to make high bids could it be worth trying to trade pick 21 up to something higher? Feel like there’s a lot to gain if we see much value in the top 15 picks

 

[Alite]

I hate the way the draft has been is set up by the AFL.

In this I am not talking about Father / Sons (which I love - even though we have struggled on this) or NGAs or zoning. I am specifically talking about the National Draft.

The Hawks cannot win anything this year. Winning seems counter productive for our future. While I understand that a winning culture is extremely important, there are, IMO, 3 outstanding prospects in this years draft: Ugle-Hagan (going to the dogs), McDonald, and Hollands.

If the Hawks recruiting staff agree with me, we have to lose badly and have the Roos win to get access to one of these guys.

And I hate thinking that way.

There should be no certain reward for finishing lower on the ladder. It should be chance as to who gets the top pick.

Consider:
There are 55 balls in a lottery for the teams that miss the finals.
The team that finishes 18 gets 10 balls. The team that finishes 17 gets 9 balls... and so on until the team that finishes 9th gets 1 ball.
This means that the team that finishes 9th has a 1 in 55 chance of getting the first pick and the team that finishes 18 gets a 10 in 55 chance of getting the top pick.
It also means that the difference between finishing 16 or 15 is a small increase in chance of getting a higher pick. I know that under that system I would not be hoping the Hawks have an honourable loss but instead that they win.
Surely this is what the AFL want their supports to be thinking.

Yes you guys can beat me up for saying I am hoping for an honourable loss. But I do so hoping in the long term for the next Hawks dynasty.
And yes I know the idea is not new. But as a Hawks supporter I have never actually thought this way before.

Clarko would not be talking about a compromised draw under this system.

Clearly there are many other things that would need to be worked out...

And coaching careers would be decided on that day.

But, IMO, it would make the AFL and draft better

 

[Alite]

The Hawks need much more than any player that we can trade for. We need a leader who can fill the gaps in our team during It’s evolution to premiership contender. A Luke Hodge type who can go into the middle when needed but generally stays out, a Burgoyne, or a Coniglio (but he chose to stay).

Worpel could be our captain but he is not the type of leader I am talking about. Will Day fits the mould: a 2 year extension is not long enough, give him 5.

Logan McDonald fits the bill = can play back, forward or even mid. I have no idea on his character... assuming he is a good guy... we need Adelaide’s pick.

I’d give up a lot to build a good foundation for our club.

Where is the currency in our club... yep you guess it... Gunner and Breust. Clearly Adelaide will have no interest in either player. They want multiple picks in the draft. So IF either of Gunner or Breust want to chase bigger money elsewhere, then I’d trade up the draft to get Logan McDoanld.

If we could find a way to get Harrison Petty (out of contract) as well, Awesome.

 

[Bumps"N"Grins]

Trade Tom Mitchell.

On this year's form yes, big doubts on him getting anywhere near his brownlow best.

Hypothetical trade value for clubs thinking they can rebuild him?

 

[Breustiful]

I don't want him to go more than anybody else on this board. The reality though is that we need a reset and our only players worth enough to get something decent return are Punky, Gunston, Mitchell, Wingard, O'Meara, Worpel and Sicily. I can't see the last 5 on that list going anywhere, but unfortunately I can see a world where Breust and Gunston are traded.

It is a bitter pill to swallow, but somewhere in my soul/heart there is a sense of agreement.

I am just making fun of the annual tradition of 'trade Breust'

 

[TylerDurden]

I don't want him to go more than anybody else on this board. The reality though is that we need a reset and our only players worth enough to get something decent return are Punky, Gunston, Mitchell, Wingard, O'Meara, Worpel and Sicily. I can't see the last 5 on that list going anywhere, but unfortunately I can see a world where Breust and Gunston are traded.

You're right. And the clubs like Dogs and Pies who need to trade their pick could be the suitors.

 

[Wingnut19]

Trade Tom Mitchell.

Agree

 

[Lawsy]

LOL @ Trade Mitchell...

It's not like a sprained ankle where you come back and play with the same confidence.

Think of the guys who've broken legs and came back, it takes time and I'm sure we will see the best of TOM next season.

Trading Croad was tough, but a 2 x BnF in his first 2 years, to go with the Brownlow and being clearly the best player in the league before his busted leg is not who I'd be trading. We sucked last year without him, he's been getting better this year and we will welcome his ~700 possessions next year too.

 

[TylerDurden]

Trade Tom? Lol.

 

[SodaPop]

Trade Tom? Lol.

If they offer a top 5 pick?

 

[Kanga Commando]

What I hope for:
Trade Stratton, Smith and Frawley for picks 1, 2, 4 & 5 plus Rowell and the King bro’s.

What I fear:
Trade Gunston, Smith, Worpel and pick 3 for Castagna, pick 60 and a packet of chips

Only team who will take that first trade is North..

 

[Bugs1977]

I hate the way the draft has been is set up by the AFL.

In this I am not talking about Father / Sons (which I love - even though we have struggled on this) or NGAs or zoning. I am specifically talking about the National Draft.

The Hawks cannot win anything this year. Winning seems counter productive for our future. While I understand that a winning culture is extremely important, there are, IMO, 3 outstanding prospects in this years draft: Ugle-Hagan (going to the dogs), McDonald, and Hollands.

If the Hawks recruiting staff agree with me, we have to lose badly and have the Roos win to get access to one of these guys.

And I hate thinking that way.

There should be no certain reward for finishing lower on the ladder. It should be chance as to who gets the top pick.

Consider:
There are 55 balls in a lottery for the teams that miss the finals.
The team that finishes 18 gets 10 balls. The team that finishes 17 gets 9 balls... and so on until the team that finishes 9th gets 1 ball.
This means that the team that finishes 9th has a 1 in 55 chance of getting the first pick and the team that finishes 18 gets a 10 in 55 chance of getting the top pick.
It also means that the difference between finishing 16 or 15 is a small increase in chance of getting a higher pick. I know that under that system I would not be hoping the Hawks have an honourable loss but instead that they win.
Surely this is what the AFL want their supports to be thinking.

Yes you guys can beat me up for saying I am hoping for an honourable loss. But I do so hoping in the long term for the next Hawks dynasty.
And yes I know the idea is not new. But as a Hawks supporter I have never actually thought this way before.

Clarko would not be talking about a compromised draw under this system.

Clearly there are many other things that would need to be worked out...

And coaching careers would be decided on that day.

But, IMO, it would make the AFL and draft better

Being a NY Knicks fan how do you feel about getting f**ed over by 2 draft lotteries per year Bumps"N"Grins

Oh an FWIW in regards to wanting a draft lottery for the AFL I ask you to google search NBA draft letter conspiracy. You could mail it it right now that if the Suns or Giants just miss the top 8 and they have a 1 in 55 chance of winning it then it would miraculously happen and the poor old Abasi or one of our other mods would then have to open up a conspiracy thread.

 

[Bumps"N"Grins]

Being a NY Knicks fan how do you feel about getting f**ed over by 2 draft lotteries per year Bumps"N"Grins

Oh an FWIW in regards to wanting a draft lottery for the AFL I ask you to google search NBA draft letter conspiracy. You could mail it it right now that if the Suns or Giants just miss the top 8 and they have a 1 in 55 chance of winning it then it would miraculously happen and the poor old Abasi or one of our other mods would then have to open up a conspiracy thread.

Me thinks it stinks Bugs

Unless someone can supply the Knicks with another frozen draft envelope, come on down Patrick Ewing.