Also guys thoughts on under over 155.5? Weather looks perfect and it's a great deck for two quick sides ,their defense is good but so many talented players offensively
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AFLW 2024 - Round 6 - Chat, game threads, injury lists, team lineups and more.
AFL 2021 AFL Grand Final (Macrae is a spud thread)
- Thread starter balmainforever
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I think I’ll go the classic highest scoring half 2nd
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Once again you guys have it completely ass about and are completely misguided.
The actual Norm Smith result is of little interest to me at this point.
Why?
I've been advocating a THEORY that:
If:
before a prelim, the 'flag win' odds for a team aren't too high
Then:
It is a viable alternative option (and potentially more profitable) to back 3 of the teams best players for Norm Smith before the prelim (with a split stake that equals the same as you would have placed on the 'flag win' bet.)
This theory is predicated on a potential edge which I think may exist; where based on a look at the past Norm Smith medal winners- star mids of GF winning teams (ie top 2 in each team) win the NS a high percentage of the time.
My potential edge is that bookies don't really account for this when setting NS markets, and only price star mids (ie top 2 mids in a team) slightly shorter than the rest of the team.
Paris and Jug have tried and failed in the futures thread to say that this theory doesn't stack up mathematically against just betting on a flag win before a prelim.
They have also tried and failed to say that the theory doesn't stack up because it supposedly takes on more risk for no or minimal extra reward.
(I wont bore all in here with the details- but for any sadists interested in seeing how these failures occurred, head over to the futures thread.)
Paris and Jug:
I've already had my victory, because the theory stacks up mathematically and if you believe my edge exists- the result from the overall risk/reward profile is equivalent (or even better) than betting on a flag win before a prelim.
The only thing I'm now interested in is seeing if more evidence will appear to show my potential edge actually exists.
(Again, this potential edge simply is: star players win the NS a disproportiantely high amount of times; which the bookies only partially account for when setting NS market prices)
A NS win by any of oliver, petracca, macrae or bont will go a long way to helping confirm or deny the existence of my potential edge.
That's the bit I'm interested in.
iluvparis
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It really is quite sad you think your theory 'stands up mathematically' but I am not going to derail another thread.
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Exact same could be said of the Bont though.
They both 'look' like the archetype NS winner- ala dusty.
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Good luck mate... ballsy..I like it.
hmmmm do half backs ever win it though really????
Only the last time Dogs were in a GF
Hodge and JJ both won it, I reckon a rebounding defender is the best roughie you will get on Grand Final Day.
A player of Josh Dunkley's class being $41 also feels value.
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iluvparis
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I reckon you are better looking for a third/4th strong midfielder and hoping they pop up with a goal or too - your Embley/Shaun Heart types
As for half backs - Hodge is one of the great players of the last 30 years and many (consensus) was that JJ was extremely lucky to win it
You're also talking about the 2 best midfields in the comp, so it's highly likely one of them will bob up with a couple of goals to support their 30+ touches which will get it done. With such strong mids it's even less likely to be a roughy, one of them is getting off the chain.
Who is this year's Mark Hutchings tho?
iluvparis
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Ed Langdon?
Not bad. Was feeling a Charlie Spargo go myself
Pretty sure the power man was a Demons boy too. Real shame to not have him posting this year
Why aren't you spuds talking about the historic and absolutely horrid prep the Dees will have here.
One single game in the month (28 days) leading up to the grand final.
Let me repeat that. The top 4 team who has won both their finals is at a disadvantage with their lead-up.
Much much much prefer the Bulldogs preparation. 3x finals into a week off to rest up for the big dance.
In previous years you'd say Melb would be at a clear advantage with their lead up - Bye QF Bye PF into GF vs Bye QF SF PF into GF.
Unfortunately the AFL has ruined that.
One single game in the month (28 days) leading up to the grand final.
Let me repeat that. The top 4 team who has won both their finals is at a disadvantage with their lead-up.
Much much much prefer the Bulldogs preparation. 3x finals into a week off to rest up for the big dance.
In previous years you'd say Melb would be at a clear advantage with their lead up - Bye QF Bye PF into GF vs Bye QF SF PF into GF.
Unfortunately the AFL has ruined that.
iluvparis
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If it was such a disadvantage why didn't they just tank their qualifying final.
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I'm gonna go out on a limb and say that as a general rule.... they now as a club believe it's better to win than lose.
I can see certainly see how this concept is lost on a kruezer cup follower though.
iluvparis
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Again your ability to arrive at an entirely nonsensical conclusion is unparalleled.
The dees deciding not to tank in order to play an extra game does not mean they think that they are at an advantage by having won wk1 final.
All it means is that they have decided to not entertain compromising on their ethos of trying to win each and every game.
They could (and probably do) consider themselves at a disadvantage right now.
They were faced with a sophies choice- and chose one of the two equally disadvantageous options that were on offer to them.
iluvparis
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Wait - so they KNEW they were at a disadvantage by WINNING their first final but chose not to tank it because feelings......
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They knew they were screwed either way.
So they chose the not tanking option because they had to choose something.
Do I need to break out the crayons again?
Hava Alle
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Throw in the unders and Dees 1-39 and I would love this.
