AFL 2021 AFL Grand Final (Macrae is a spud thread)

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toenail11 said:
Sportsbet BYO
Both teams to kick 2 goals each quarter
@6.50
Click to expand...

This bet would have hit in '18, '14, and '08.

I haven't looked back further than that.

So that's three out of the past 13 grand finals.

I don't see it happening this weekend but good luck to you, hope it hits, I want a competitive match.
 
Ohh Ok said:
2.5u - Macrae over 32.5 disposals - $1.90 - SB
Tracks nicely at 14/25 for the season but more importantly has games of 36 and 38 vs Melbourne this year. As is always the case with Macrae, he is the one that goes unnoticed or ignored amongst a plethora of gun midfielders at the dogs. Libba and Bontempelli will likely receive attention from Harmes/Viney, whilst Dunkley has been deployed in defensive roles recently, and Smith, Treloar, and Hunter will go head to head with Brayshaw and Langdon who are both playing roles as defensive wingman. The other thing that is the beauty of Macrae is his lightning quick hands, he tends to get the handballs away in tight congestion where other players opt to ride the tackle. Definitely the midfielder that you can count on in getting a lot of the ball. Definitely can not argue with his form this finals series averaging a massive 37 disposals a game.

3.5u - Bontempelli 25+ disposals - $1.72 - SB
Happy to drop an extra unit on this one and take this instead of the 25.5 on offer. Was getting 28.5 for him earlier in the season which makes this line the absolute bottom for him, has gone over in 19/25 games this year. Was concerns around his fitness due to the knee injury sustained against Brisbane but he still managed to achieve a match high 23 CBAs against Port the following week. With that game being put to bed early, the bulldogs were able to manage their champ and give him 73% TOG, his lowest since an injured game in 2015. Along with that he’s had the week off which is massive in terms of recovery for a guy with injury concerns. Line is down due to a last four of 15, 23, 29, 20 but in the biggest game of the year I expect him going full throttle. Had 30 and 31 this year in Melbourne.
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Every chance Bont's playing through a pretty significant knee injury and just jabbing it in order to get up, think I prefer betting on the guys we know are fully fit personally.
 
For those keen to place a bet on Melbourne winning this week, you may be best served to actually bet on the "premiership winner" market on Betfair, rather than the match odds.

For some reason, Melbourne keeps trading at $1.75 in the 'AFL Premiers 2021' market, yet they are trading at $1.73 in the match odds.

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Similarly, if you're keen to back the Bulldogs to win, obviously use the 'Match Odds' market to get a superior price.
 

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think I'll hold off on any potential over bets, Becoming cloudy during the afternoon. Winds easterly 25 to 40 km/h becoming light during the evening... forecast could change to rain Saturday late and the wind may stick around well into the match too. Behind total overs might be a good play given the nerves and potential high winds, guessing the stadium is pretty well protected though from Wind
 
ShaunWDT said:
Every chance Bont's playing through a pretty significant knee injury and just jabbing it in order to get up, think I prefer betting on the guys we know are fully fit personally.
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Everything I’ve read is that it was more of a joint injury rather than soft tissue, which makes a huge difference as there isn’t any weakness in the muscles and the risk of injury is almost absent. The fact that he went to a game high CBAs last match (more than any port player too) and did this whilst playing around 15% less of the match than he usually would and also in a blow out is positive signs. It’ll 3 weeks since that initial knee injury come the time of game, and the week of we just had probably didn’t help anyone as much as it did him. 25 is an absolute bottom number for him, so prepared to take it on.
 
ShaunWDT said:
Every chance Bont's playing through a pretty significant knee injury and just jabbing it in order to get up, think I prefer betting on the guys we know are fully fit personally.
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It's clearly not a significant injury.

FWIW, Morris played with significant injuries in the 2016 Grand Final, and I rated him BOG. So too did Gerard Whatley. A player like him doesn't naturally attract the attention of those voting on the Norm Smith Medal, so he was never a chance to win it.

Given Bont isn't anywhere near as restricted as Morris was in 2016, and being a player that clearly attracts the attention of those on the voting panel, means he rightly deserves to be third favourite and the one most likely to win the Medal if the Bulldogs salute.
 
I never look at Sportsbet BYO but I have today, and two fun ones stood out to me.

B. Brown First Goal Scorer & B. Fritsch Second Goal Scorer
$91

A. Naughton First Goal Scorer & C. Weightman Second Goal Scorer
$126



On SM-G965F using BigFooty.com mobile app
 
Naughton, Hannan, Smith, Bontempelli to combine for 7+ goals @ $5 sb. Think this is value. They've combined for 22 goals so far this finals series.
 
jikost said:
Naughton, Hannan, Smith, Bontempelli to combine for 7+ goals @ $5 sb. Think this is value. They've combined for 22 goals so far this finals series.
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To be fair they probably need to click close to 7 between them for the dogs to be any chance
 
Jammer said:
Hard to split them but I just cannot back the Dee's with this lead in.
0ne game in 28 Days ( and you could argue that only half of that was at an intense level )

I have my concerns based purely on a grossly unfair
finals fixture they could get jumped and not get back into it.

I appreciate this is hard to imagine after seeing what they did to the Cats
However I remember the Crows in their 2017 prelim. and the Swans 2014 Prelim looking just
as impressive. The following week they were done half way thru the 2nd qrt.


1 unit Dogs win $2.32 Betfair
1/2 unit Dogs to win by over 24.5 $8 Betfair
Click to expand...

I don't get this 1 game in 28 days thing lots have mentioned. Like yes it's not much but the Dogs have only played 1 extra game? Does it really matter now that "technically" they've played 2 extra because week 1 of finals they played on a Sunday instead of Saturday night?

And they've both had a week off to lose intensity, subdue momentum etc. It seems a bit silly.
 

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Here’s my spill on who I’m taking and why;


3u - Melbourne SU - $1.73 - Ladbrokes
Could be an absolute nail biter, so going to take the head to head rather than looking at the line. Not going to back 1-39 as finals do have a knack of blowing out once one team is out of it also. Looking at these two sides, if you’d ask me to pick which lines I thought were better I’d probably pick;
Defence: Melbourne
Ruck: Gawn (Melbourne)
Forward: Melbourne
Midfield: Gun to head id probably choose Western Bulldogs, but it is ridiculously close, the form that Pertracca, Oliver and Viney are in are ridiculous and can definitely match or better what the Bulldogs throw at them on the weekend. The thing the Bulldogs bring is the massive amount of depth in this area.
Melbourne’s defence will be what wins them this game and I think the absence of Bruce for this fixture is huge, it really frees up Lever or May to do what they do best. The dogs have been ultra impressive this year and the midfield has performed without a ruckman, Martin is in now and will hassle Gawn but I have queries over his fitness to run out the game. Gawn takes a huge amount of confidence after a career best game and I like the possibility of him stretching Stef Martin and making him accountable inside the forward fifty as a marking target against an already poor/undersized defence. After Alex Keath the Dogs do have much down back, this should bring one of Brown or McDonald right into the equation whilst Fristch has shown he can play big and small and we’ve got the likes of Spargo, Pickett, Neal-Bullen who will bring the pressure to the ground ball. Many avenues for goal for this Melbourne side compared to the dogs who have relied on a large chunk of goals coming from the midfield. It took 3 goals combined from Smith and Macrae to get the dogs over the line in the final term vs the Lions in what some may have seen as a game the Lions were robbed in, a team Melbourne comfortably rolled by 33 points the week before. Think Melbourne have got this one.
 
HTPunter said:
I don't get this 1 game in 28 days thing lots have mentioned. Like yes it's not much but the Dogs have only played 1 extra game? Does it really matter now that "technically" they've played 2 extra because week 1 of finals they played on a Sunday instead of Saturday night?

And they've both had a week off to lose intensity, subdue momentum etc. It seems a bit silly.
Click to expand...

No - its an utter myth.
 
54Dogs said:
Champion data suggesting that of the ~700 seasons played by teams since 1968, Dees and Dogs defences are raked 2nd and 5th in ppg conceded (incl finals)
Click to expand...

The thing is though - This season is probably the lowest scoring since 1968 taking away last year.
 
Red Dog Styles said:
TAB have player goals over and UNDER however they are all set at 1.5 and only the main goalscorers

On SM-G930F using BigFooty.com mobile app
Click to expand...
took fritch, naughton, weightman over, due to fritch and weightman being good finishers normally and Naughton looked confident last week and got ok matchup last time vs dees
 
AFL Grand Final Sprint 2021 Winner:
Petruccelle $1.57
Henry 5.50
Liam Ryan 6.50
Ethan Hughes 9.50
Rotham 13
Tom Cole 21
Andrew Brayshaw 26
Luke Ryan 41


if Petruccelle doesn't win that, he shouldn't be playing AFL footy.
 
NYRB said:
AFL Grand Final Sprint 2021 Winner:
Petruccelle $1.57
Henry 5.50
Liam Ryan 6.50
Ethan Hughes 9.50
Rotham 13
Tom Cole 21
Andrew Brayshaw 26
Luke Ryan 41


if Petruccelle doesn't win that, he shouldn't be playing AFL footy.
Click to expand...
seen the hot favs lose before, all it takes is a bad start, poison odds, who has the market for this??
 
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