AFL 2021 AFL Grand Final (Macrae is a spud thread)

[Westy Bogan]

2.5u - Treloar under 23.5 disposals - $1.75 - PointsBet
Has had 4 CBAs in the whole of this finals series, with his two against Port coming in the last quarter when the dogs had all their star players at rest. Has gone under this in 5/6 games since returning from injury. In his one game he went over with 28 disposals, 18 of these coming in the second half when the result of the game was more essentially decided. Everyone remembers a time where he was an absolute ball magnet but currently he is too far back in the pecking order and the role isn’t there to suit what he was once able to produce.

2u - Daniel over 23.5 disposals - $1.86 - SB
Games of 26 and 34 on the Dees this year, whilst also clearing this in 62.5% of games this year which over the long term would have you winning money on this bet. Can usually pin point the reasons why Daniel goes under a total like this, but can’t see any reasons why. Dogs will look to get his elite kicking involved as much as possible.

2.5u - Dunkley 20+ disposals - $1.72 - SB
For 8 cents more you back over 21.5. Dunkley, based on recent games seems to be the fourth in line last in the mid rotation after the big three midfielders. On his day he can rack up the ball as good as anyone. Started the season going 25+ in his first six games at an average of 30 disposals a game. Has worked himself back into things since returning from injury and has cleared in his last two and is now getting amongst the thick of it.

I really like the first 2 but don't know on Dunkley

 

[botswana42]

Norm Smith
Dunkley 10BB @41 (365)
Oliver 10@7.8 BF
Libba 5@25 (BF)

Fritsch AGS, Macrae + Oliver 30+ Melb H2H 25 @4.4 PB
Dogs +1.5 1Q. Melb Lead @3Q. 2nd Half highest 5@8 SB

GL all.

 

[LionsOrDieTrion]

 

[dontlimitme]

what're we all drinking?

 

[Pacman82]

0.5u - High Risk SGM - $70.50 - SB
- Under 155.5 points
- Pickett, McDonald, Weightman AGS
- May, Duryea 15+ disposals
- Viney, Bontempelli 20+ disposals
- Oliver 30+ disposals
- Macrae 35+ disposals

Tailed one each way, dropped May & boosted Viney to 25+. Unders @96 pwd SB & Overs @46.5 SB!?!

 

[mac23]

Tailed one each way, dropped May & boosted Viney to 25+. Unders @96 pwd SB & Overs @46.5 SB!?!

Goal kickers into unders always pops

 

[Pacman82]

what're we all drinking?

The demon drink

 

[Fabab]

what're we all drinking?

Just deciding,JD or gin.

 

[NYRB]

what're we all drinking?

A bit of Pinot Noir Premium Wine from Ponting Wines.

 

[Red Dog Styles]

A bit of Pinot Noir Premium Wine from Ponting Wines.

View attachment 1245774

Perfect Punter

On SM-G930F using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[cznsnowy91]

Got my biggest bet of the year on the dees at 1.80 lads. Gawn to dominate the ruck, big Benny brown to kick a bag and petracca/oliver to run rampant (hopefully). Should be a cracking game.

 

[Poopybum22]

Melbourne $3 at Pointsbet (max $20 stake).

If you can't find it, look under the entertainment section.

$20 on the Dees at $3 and $20 on the dogs at $2.20 allows for no losses.

 

[dontlimitme]

Melbourne $3 at Pointsbet (max $20 stake).

If you can't find it, look under the entertainment section.

$10 on the Dees at $3 and $10 on the dogs at $2.20 allows for no losses.

 

[Pacman82]

Melbourne $3 at Pointsbet (max $20 stake).

If you can't find it, look under the entertainment section.

$20 on the Dees at $3 and $20 on the dogs at $2.20 allows for no losses.

Cheers! $20 on the Dees

 

[andwhenitcomes]

Smokey I don't mind is Alex Keath

42

Alex Keath

Age

32

Ht

198cm

Wt

93kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

14.0

4star

K

8.9

3star

HB

5.1

4star

M

5.1

5star

T

1.5

3star

MG

206.7

3star

D

11.0

3star

K

7.3

3star

HB

3.8

3star

M

3.6

4star

T

0.6

1star

MG

193.4

3star

D

11.4

3star

K

6.2

3star

HB

5.2

4star

M

4.6

5star

T

2.6

4star

MG

165.0

3star

top 3 Norm @ 51 (Topsport). Polled coaches votes in 9/22 games this year, including three 5s. Many worse players are shorter

 

[maskmcgee]

Tailing every bet in this thead just to jinx them to ensure they all lose against the rules?

 

[NYRB]

if anyone is looking for Max Gawn

11

Max Gawn

Age

32

Ht

209cm

Wt

110kg

Pos.

Ruck

Career

Season

Last 5

D

14.1

4star

K

7.4

3star

HB

6.7

4star

CL

2.8

4star

HO

35.3

5star

D

18.5

4star

K

11.5

4star

HB

7.0

4star

CL

3.5

4star

HO

29.2

5star

D

8.4

3star

K

3.6

2star

HB

4.8

4star

CL

1.0

3star

HO

15.6

5star

to kick 2+ goals its $6 at TopSport, and $4 at Sportsbet to kick 2+ Goals. Huge difference......

 

[Jugada]

Can get Melbourne +5.5 @ $2 for a max bet of 50 on BetRights move the line promo. Might get a couple more points by bounce too

 

[cznsnowy91]

if anyone is looking for Max Gawn to kick 2+ goals its $6 at TopSport, and $4 at Sportsbet to kick 2+ Goals. Huge difference......

$3.40 on lads, shocking odds compared to Topsport

 

[The_Steadier]

trac for norm smith but i got value in this weeks ago thanks to THE_STEADIER )

Awwww shucks, it's nice to no this place isn't completely overrun by ingrates.


Just when you thought I wasn't awesome enough already- here's some fun.

(Note the below are all UNBOOSTED odds)

I've discovered that the SB multi algorithm
REALLY doesn't rate the chances of a player from EACH team winning the most goals and most possies group 1 markets.
As such, the algorithm gives us generous odds OVER the quoted values like this:



But wait, there's more- the algorithm also doesn't rate the prospect of EACH team winning the most goals and first goal markets either.

Both of these quirks are hit and miss in their application, but they do result in some absurd value if you have a play around.

















I could go on all day, but I think you get the idea.

At least some will.... the others will laugh at my post as it goes sailing over their heads and into the window they just finished licking.

 

[NYRB]

Just had a quick look at the line of 155.5 points at Perth Stadium in 2021: Has gone overs that 14 times in 2021, and gone under that 10 times.

Higher scoring half at Perth Stadium in 2021: 1st Half 10 times, 2nd Half 13 times and 1 tie.

I do have a weird feeling that this game goes overs.....

 

[dontlimitme]

Awwww shucks, it's nice to no this place isn't completely overrun by ingrates.


Just when you thought I wasn't awesome enough already- here's some fun.

(Note the below are all UNBOOSTED odds)

I've discovered that the SB multi algorithm
REALLY doesn't rate the chances of a player from EACH team winning the most goals and most possies group 1 markets.
As such, the algorithm gives us generous odds OVER the quoted values like this:

View attachment 1245809

But wait, there's more- the algorithm also doesn't rate the prospect of EACH team winning the most goals and first goal markets either.

Both of these quirks are hit and miss in their application, but they do result in some absurd value if you have a play around.

View attachment 1245823

View attachment 1245824

View attachment 1245826

View attachment 1245827

View attachment 1245828


View attachment 1245830

View attachment 1245832


I could go on all day, but I think you get the idea.

At least some will.... the others will laugh at my post as it goes sailing over their heads and into the window they just finished licking.

but how does this correlate with trac for the norm smith

 

[BloodRet]

Naughton 4 and 6 @11.70 power price sb, @68

Fritsch 3
Naughton 3
Hannan
Mcdonald
@36

Hedge on my 3k deeeeez, 300 Bulldogs @2.89 power price

Mcdonald 4
Hannan 2
Bulldogs
@235

 

[botswana42]

interesting names Harry Taylor and Krakouer selected..............a backman and a forward in the line for votes possibly?

Luke Jackson to poll a Norm Smith vote is paying $11? Steven May to poll a vote is $7? Pickett $7? Keath at $23 as well.............

what book?

 

[NYRB]

Awwww shucks, it's nice to no this place isn't completely overrun by ingrates.


Just when you thought I wasn't awesome enough already- here's some fun.

(Note the below are all UNBOOSTED odds)

I've discovered that the SB multi algorithm
REALLY doesn't rate the chances of a player from EACH team winning the most goals and most possies group 1 markets.
As such, the algorithm gives us generous odds OVER the quoted values like this:

View attachment 1245809

But wait, there's more- the algorithm also doesn't rate the prospect of EACH team winning the most goals and first goal markets either.

Both of these quirks are hit and miss in their application, but they do result in some absurd value if you have a play around.

View attachment 1245823

View attachment 1245824

View attachment 1245826

View attachment 1245827

View attachment 1245828


View attachment 1245830

View attachment 1245832


I could go on all day, but I think you get the idea.

At least some will.... the others will laugh at my post as it goes sailing over their heads and into the window they just finished licking.

Sportsbet algorithm can be a bit hit and miss at times........but i dont understand how and why this can only go from a $9 - 5 leg multi, to around a $50.75 -6 leg multi? Don't think any of these legs you would assume would help or reduce the outcome from happening....

eg




to this:




On Top Sport they simply multiply all the odds together. No shaving of odds for the Same Game Multis. (at the same time sometime Sportsbet algorithm has slightly 'higher' odds if you do a Same Game Multi).