The real question is who first told us about the train and have they since mysteriously disappeared with all our money?
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AFLW 2024 - Round 6 - Chat, game threads, injury lists, team lineups and more.
AFL 2021 AFL Round 13
- Thread starter balmainforever
- Start date
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Not sure hahaha but it's been wound up every weekend for about the past month. Absolutely hilarious.
Its not the coach
Cancelled
- Apr 16, 2019
- 1,289
- 890
- AFL Club
- Adelaide
- Banned
- #653
Good enough to beat a couple of top 3 teams, Should be on 7 wins.
Its not the coach
Cancelled
- Apr 16, 2019
- 1,289
- 890
- AFL Club
- Adelaide
- Banned
- #654
Not this year but looking good for the next few seasons.
To be fair with the Battle train, there was that one weekend where it was actually on and he missed 2 of the easiest set shots, then 1 with average difficulty and then he passed off one from like 25 metres out
Ever since then he hasn't got close tho and Sportsbet is licking their lips
Ever since then he hasn't got close tho and Sportsbet is licking their lips
- Sep 25, 2013
- 15,509
- 23,355
- AFL Club
- Sydney
- Other Teams
- Norwich City, Detroit Pistons
$140 on
Flynn
Himmelberg
Larkey
Zurhaar
Dustbin
Reiwoldt
Kennedy
Ryan
@9 ts
Flynn
Himmelberg
Larkey
Zurhaar
Dustbin
Reiwoldt
Kennedy
Ryan
@9 ts
GWS are only averaging 7 goal kickers a game last couple of weeks, but when Tobes is there he draws a few more into the mix..
GWS Win
Tobes 2+
Finlayson
Himmelberg
Hill
Lloyd
Kelly
Green
Hopper
@24.5 sb
GWS Win
Tobes 2+
Finlayson
Himmelberg
Hill
Lloyd
Kelly
Green
Hopper
@24.5 sb
- Oct 6, 2011
- 35,051
- 10,715
- AFL Club
- GWS
- Other Teams
- Patriots, Golden State, Wildcats
North Melbourne v Giants PointsBet Spread Multipliers (Kicks x Goals x Handballs):
I have included the season average multiplier score for all players as well.
Toby Greene is one of the best 3 players in the AFL. But Josh Kelly is surprisingly having a better season in terms of multiplier stat scores over Toby Greene.
The bet that stood out and we all know how hard it is to cover a 200+ line in a stat multiplier but surely the unders is the value there?
Another interesting stat I found was Harry Himmelberg has gone goaless in his last 3 games but seems to play much better when Toby Greene is in the side. Might be worth taking that into account if looking for goalscorer bets , as someone also mentioned in this thread a few posts above me, that having Greene in the side may allow the other Giants forwards less attention and more freedom......
I have included the season average multiplier score for all players as well.
| STAT MULTIPLIER RECORD IN 2021 | NUMBER OF OCCURRENCES | NUMBER OF OCCURRENCES | NUMBER OF OCCURRENCES | SEASON AVERAGE MULTIPLIER | |||
| BEN CUNNINGTON | UNDER 75 | 6 | 75-89 | OVER 89 | 3 | 122.333 | |
| TARRYN THOMAS | UNDER 61 | 4 | 61-71 | 2 | OVER 71 | 5 | 70.36 |
| AARON HALL | UNDER 43 | 8 | 43-51 | OVER 51 | 1 | 14.11 | |
| JY SIMPKIN | UNDER 37 | 10 | 37-45 | OVER 45 | 1 | 20.09 | |
| CAMERON ZURHAAR | UNDER 43 | 7 | 43-51 | 1 | OVER 51 | 2 | 20.9 |
| LUKE DAVIES-UNIACKE | UNDER 37 | 7 | 37-43 | OVER 43 | 2 | 25.22 | |
| TODD GOLDSTEIN | UNDER 29 | 8 | 29-35 | OVER 35 | 3 | 25.09 | |
| TOBY GREENE | UNDER 208 | 6 | 208-242 | 1 | OVER 242 | 2 | 148.33 |
| JOSH KELLY | UNDER 140 | 4 | 140-164 | 0 | OVER 164 | 7 | 161.27 |
| JACOB HOPPER | UNDER 94 | 5 | 94-110 | OVER 110 | 6 | 110.27 | |
| TIM TARANTO | UNDER 65 | 8 | 65-77 | OVER 77 | 3 | 47 | |
| HARRISON HIMMELBERG | UNDER 49 | 7 | 49-59 | OVER 59 | 4 | 42.91 | |
| LACHIE WHITFIELD | UNDER 39 | 4 | 39-47 | OVER 47 | 1 | 41.6 |
Toby Greene is one of the best 3 players in the AFL. But Josh Kelly is surprisingly having a better season in terms of multiplier stat scores over Toby Greene.
The bet that stood out and we all know how hard it is to cover a 200+ line in a stat multiplier but surely the unders is the value there?
Another interesting stat I found was Harry Himmelberg has gone goaless in his last 3 games but seems to play much better when Toby Greene is in the side. Might be worth taking that into account if looking for goalscorer bets , as someone also mentioned in this thread a few posts above me, that having Greene in the side may allow the other Giants forwards less attention and more freedom......
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- Oct 6, 2011
- 35,051
- 10,715
- AFL Club
- GWS
- Other Teams
- Patriots, Golden State, Wildcats
If you have at least $82 in your balance at PointsBet, I wouldnt begrudge you if you staked $0.50 on Josh Kelly to go OVER 164. Yes do understand its a big line to cover as well. He has kicked 2+ Goals, 4/11 times this season and against a weak Roos lineup, he will get a few opportunities.
Feel like he can have a big game today.
I will do some thinking before posting up my predictions later for the spreads.
Feel like he can have a big game today.
I will do some thinking before posting up my predictions later for the spreads.
SM
Bigfooty Legend
GWS win
Greene 2+
Flynn
Kelly
Taranto 25+
Hall 100+ AF points
$7.10 boosted Ladbrokes
Greene 2+
Flynn
Kelly
Taranto 25+
Hall 100+ AF points
$7.10 boosted Ladbrokes
- Jun 16, 2018
- 8,939
- 15,993
- AFL Club
- North Melbourne
I like it.
Xerri is 2m tall, has been named in the 'best players' most weeks in the magoos.
Also popped up for goal several times this season, even in matches where the team got spanked.
I haven't seen much of Xerri but he is supposed to have good hands.
Played four games last year when we were utter trash, kicked 1, 0, 2, and 1.
Who in the Giants defence will go to him? None of them are close to Xerri in height.
Buckley (193cm) Haynes (193) Reid (188)
Idun (191) Cumming (184) Ash (186)
Idun and Buckley are both kids with about a dozen games experience.
And somebody has to go to Larkey, who is almost 2m tall as well.
$21 for 3+, $128 for 4+, $600 for 5+ (using the sgm cheat code) seem worthy of a few bob.
North could end up playing Xerri in the ruck and Goldstein forward, wouldn't surprise me.
Goldstein could be value for goals but I'm putting all of my eggs in the Xerri basket.
Does ziebell take kick ins? His kick spread is 18 and he's cleared that 9/11, drawn once and 17 in other.. His disposals could be good If he does take them and gws miss a few shots, guessing line is 23.5 if his spread is 24
Prochard123
Norm Smith Medallist
- Jul 28, 2014
- 7,147
- 5,773
- AFL Club
- Collingwood
He used to take the vast majority of kick ins but nowadays its a split a bit more evenly with Hall.
- Jun 16, 2018
- 8,939
- 15,993
- AFL Club
- North Melbourne
Also like Hopper AGS $2.60 on lads. Done this in 7/11 this season.
- Jan 21, 2013
- 11,561
- 24,234
- AFL Club
- Port Adelaide
Willing to go full degen today
5u - Hall, Ziebell, Kelly, 20+, Taranto 25+ disposals - $2.02 - TopSport
Hall 7/7, Ziebell 10/11, Kelly 10/11, Taranto 10/11
5u - Haynes 15+, Greene 15+, Cumming 20+ disposals - $2.50 - SB
Haynes 7/7, Greene 9/9, Cumming 10/12
Expecting inaccurate goal kicking today which should gift Hall, Ziebell and Cumming a few extra kick outs. Kelly and Taranto playing healthy mid roles and are ultra consistent, North an easy side to rack up against. Expecting GWS to dominate this one which means the possession count for Greene and Haynes becomes a little easier and should free them up for some uncontested possessions.
3.5u - Whitfield over 27.5 disposals - $1.87 - 365
An elite runner , should absolutely burn this North Melbourne side. Line still a bit low due to early season injuries. When he’s fully up and running this is set at low 30s. Has cleared 3/5 so far this year.
2u - Ward 25+ disposals - $1.85 - TopSport
Has found some form and cleared this in each of his last 3. Solid role and soft match up.
3.5u - Gaff over 30.5 disposals - $1.90 - 365
Love wingers against the tigers and love Gaff at Optus. Great spot for him today.
Hall 7/7, Ziebell 10/11, Kelly 10/11, Taranto 10/11
5u - Haynes 15+, Greene 15+, Cumming 20+ disposals - $2.50 - SB
Haynes 7/7, Greene 9/9, Cumming 10/12
Expecting inaccurate goal kicking today which should gift Hall, Ziebell and Cumming a few extra kick outs. Kelly and Taranto playing healthy mid roles and are ultra consistent, North an easy side to rack up against. Expecting GWS to dominate this one which means the possession count for Greene and Haynes becomes a little easier and should free them up for some uncontested possessions.
3.5u - Whitfield over 27.5 disposals - $1.87 - 365
An elite runner , should absolutely burn this North Melbourne side. Line still a bit low due to early season injuries. When he’s fully up and running this is set at low 30s. Has cleared 3/5 so far this year.
2u - Ward 25+ disposals - $1.85 - TopSport
Has found some form and cleared this in each of his last 3. Solid role and soft match up.
3.5u - Gaff over 30.5 disposals - $1.90 - 365
Love wingers against the tigers and love Gaff at Optus. Great spot for him today.
iluvparis
Import Whisperer
- Apr 1, 2005
- 50,055
- 40,653
- AFL Club
- Carlton
- Other Teams
- Calgary Flames, Man Utd
They really aren’t. Clear bottom two side for mine.
iluvparis
Import Whisperer
- Apr 1, 2005
- 50,055
- 40,653
- AFL Club
- Carlton
- Other Teams
- Calgary Flames, Man Utd
Should be on about 2
Prochard123
Norm Smith Medallist
- Jul 28, 2014
- 7,147
- 5,773
- AFL Club
- Collingwood
GWS vs North
1. Tim Taranto to beat the 28.5 disposals line
2. Jacob Hopper to beat the 27.5 disposals line
3. Ben Cunnington to lose to the 28.5 disposals line
Combined with a bunch of supporting bets - Ziebell 20 touches, Simpkin 20 touches, Josh Kelly 20 touches.
1. Tim Taranto to beat the 28.5 disposals line
2. Jacob Hopper to beat the 27.5 disposals line
3. Ben Cunnington to lose to the 28.5 disposals line
Combined with a bunch of supporting bets - Ziebell 20 touches, Simpkin 20 touches, Josh Kelly 20 touches.
Tab moved pies dees down another 3 points to 149.5, guessing they think pies will play safe or a real grind game to get Buckley a win, I still think movement is wrong, perfect conditions with Elliot back in helping them score more free.
2.5u - Cunnington under 28.5 disposals - $1.82 - Ladbrokes
1.5u - Cunnington 25+ disposals? = NO - $3 - 365
0.5u - Cunnington 20+ disposals? = NO - $7.50 - 365
De Boer back into the side which means the giants have a tagged available. In the past De Boer has been sent to Cunnington with a lot of success. His tallies vs the giants look like this, 21 (was held to 1 at Qtr time before being shifted to Higgins), 16, 19, 21, 14. The way GWS play make it typically hard for opposing mids, so the addition of De Boer should make the battle even harder.
1.5u - Cunnington 25+ disposals? = NO - $3 - 365
0.5u - Cunnington 20+ disposals? = NO - $7.50 - 365
De Boer back into the side which means the giants have a tagged available. In the past De Boer has been sent to Cunnington with a lot of success. His tallies vs the giants look like this, 21 (was held to 1 at Qtr time before being shifted to Higgins), 16, 19, 21, 14. The way GWS play make it typically hard for opposing mids, so the addition of De Boer should make the battle even harder.
ward to win group 2 on sb???? pretty confident.... averages higher than all others in the group.
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chrisdon16
@AFLsystembet
GWS -18.5
$1.91 Bet365
$1.91 Bet365
chrisdon16
@AFLsystembet
MEL COL u152.5
$1.90 Bluebet
$1.90 Bluebet
