AFL 2021 AFL Round 13

[Veer Right]

Bianco 15+ 2/2
Poulter 15+ 6/6
Sidebottom 20+ 11/11
Oliver 25+ 11/12 - other had 23.
Pies +29.5 11/12 - other by 30.

@ 5.10

 

[NYRB]

Collingwood's best chance of winning is to slow down the tempo of the game to disrupt the Demons attack.

I would imagine the Dees would like to play a bit more fast tempo.

Tricky game to predict for Unders/Overs points backers. With it being Bucks last game in charge, you do get a weird feeling, the players may go out and play with a bit more free will.

 

[NYRB]

The PointsBet Stats Multiplier spreads for Collingwood v Melbourne (Goals x Kicks x Handballs):

STAT MULTIPLIER RECORD IN 2021		NUMBER OF OCCURRENCES		NUMBER OF OCCURRENCES		NUMBER OF OCCURRENCES	SEASON AVERAGE MULTIPLIER
TOM MCDONALD	UNDER 95	6​	95-111		OVER 111	6​	108.42​
CLAYTON OLIVER	UNDER 115	9​	115-135		OVER 135	3​	119.25​
ED LANGDON	UNDER 86	4​	86-104		OVER 104	7​	111.54​
BAYLEY FRITSCH	UNDER 86	9​	86-100	1​	OVER 100	1​	47.36​
JAMES HARMES	UNDER 51	3​	51-63		OVER 63	3​	51.33​
KYSAIAH PICKETT	UNDER 53	7​	53-63		OVER 63	5​	72.17​
MAX GAWN	UNDER 52	6​	52-62	1​	OVER 62	5​	59.75​
ALEX NEAL-BULLEN	UNDER 39	9​	39-47		OVER 47	3​	32.58​
SAM WEIDEMANN	UNDER 34	4​	34-40		OVER 40		7.50​
ANGUS BRAYSHAW	UNDER 32	11​	32-38		OVER 38	1​	8.50​
JORDAN DE GOEY	UNDER 103	7​	103-121	1​	OVER 121	3​	106.00​
STEELE SIDEBOTTOM	UNDER 61	9​	61-71		OVER 71	3​	35.54​
JOSH DAICOS	UNDER 58	6​	58-68	2​	OVER 68	4​	44.73​
JAMIE ELLIOTT	UNDER 56	1​	56-66		OVER 66	2​	106.00​
WILL HOSKIN-ELLIOTT	UNDER 48	8​	48-56	1​	OVER 56	2​	27.00​
BRODY MIHOCEK	UNDER 45	10​	45-53		OVER 53	2​	42.17​
SCOTT PENDLEBURY	UNDER 44	11​	44-52		OVER 52	1​	18.33​

PointsBet if your reading this thread, could we have spreads also for Charlie Spargo and Luke Jackson? Cheers


Will put forward my predictions about an hour or so before bouncedown.

 

[NYRB]

Any views on the Neale Daniher Medal Winner? For best on ground today? Odds from PointsBet

Christian Petracca	$ 4.00
Clayton Oliver	$ 5.00
Max Gawn	$ 7.50
Scott Pendlebury	$ 9.00
Jordan de Goey	$ 13.00
Jack Crisp	$ 13.00
Tom McDonald	$ 19.00
Kysaiah Pickett	$ 21.00
Christian Salem	$ 21.00
Steele Sidebottom	$ 21.00
Darcy Moore	$ 21.00
Jamie Elliott	$ 26.00
Ed Langdon	$ 29.00
Bayley Fritsch	$ 34.00
Steven May	$ 34.00
Jake Lever	$ 34.00
James Harmes	$ 34.00
Angus Brayshaw	$ 41.00
Brody Mihocek	$ 41.00
Brayden Maynard	$ 41.00
Josh Daicos	$ 41.00
Chris Mayne	$ 51.00
Josh Thomas	$ 51.00
Sam Weideman	$ 67.00
Luke Jackson	$ 67.00
Darcy Cameron	$ 67.00
Will Hoskin-Elliott	$ 67.00
Isaac Quaynor	$ 67.00
Trent Rivers	$ 81.00
Michael Hibberd	$ 81.00
John Noble	$ 81.00
Charlie Spargo	$ 101.00
Alex Neal-Bullen	$ 101.00
James Jordon	$ 101.00
Jayden Hunt	$ 101.00
Tom Sparrow	$ 101.00
Beau McCreery	$ 101.00
Trent Bianco	$ 101.00
Max Lynch	$ 101.00
Caleb Poulter	$ 101.00
Jordan Roughead	$ 101.00
Harrison Petty	$ 126.00
Nathan Murphy	$ 126.00
Jack Madgen	$ 126.00

 

[chrisdon16]

Very interesting to see what Collingwood do today. Does Bucks stick to the defensive game plan or does he just say to the players go out there and just play footy? Bit like the Essendon Brisbane in the infamous "if it bleeds we can kill it" in 2001. If that's the case they could lose by 100.

 

[NYRB]

Play on Neale Daniher medal

Taken Jamie Elliott at 25/1. Feel like anything above $20 decent odds for a player that was clear BOG last week. If the pies win, you would imagine he would have to have a big game.

Long shot - Charlie Spargo to win the medal at 100/1. Has kicked 3 in a game against them in the past before. (currently his biggest tally in his career) It's a dart at a long shot if he gets a bag.

 

[tangolikelama]

Where the **** are my fellow degens?

 

[5 Bucks]

Where the fu** are my fellow degens?

Busy building long shot multis to try to get back all the coin I've lost so far this round.

Melbourne 40+ is in most of them. The Dees have dispatched the Lions and the Dogs by 20+ in the last couple of weeks. They are in great form, Pies are not.

Collingwood with 44 inside 50's last week. Can't win doing that. You'd expect Gawn to give Melbourne first use and we could see 60 inside 50's to 40 today.

 

[dontlimitme]

Where the fu** are my fellow degens?

waiting on ohhh oks tips and hoping to see some 5unit bombs

 

[Ohh Ok]

Not sure if it’s been mentioned in here yet, but Big Freeze 7 today, a fantastic cause. I’ve posted a link to their page if you’d like to make a small donation or buy a beanie! #PlayOnBF7

www.fightmnd.org.au

If you win some money on my tips or do well on your own, a simple donation will go a long way!

1u - Pickett 15+ disposals - $2.88 - SB
Has been given opportunities through the midfield this year and expecting him to chop in and out a little bit today. Is name on the ball and we might see him start at a few centre bounces throughout the day. The SCG is key for this match up as its smaller size will mean he’ll be able to get more involved even when spending time forward, have seen some of his like for like type players have decent disposal numbers here.

1u - Jackson 15+ disposals - $3.30 - SB
Depending on how this game is going, against an inexperienced ruck, Jackson may get an extended opportunity to practice his ruck craft and be closer to the ball. Should be some opportunities for him to push higher up the ground today.

2u - Gawn 20+ disposals - $1.95 - TopSport
Inexperienced ruck opponent today which he should make light work of. Big ROB equaled his second highest disposal count for the season on this same opponent last week.

4u - Melbourne -14.5 (second half) - $1.90 - Ladbrokes
1u - Collingwood win 1st Qtr, Melbourne win - $4.70 - TAB
Although Collingwood sit in 16th spot, they actually start games really well. They’re currently the 3rd rank 1st qtr team in the comp. Coupling this with the fact that it is the beloved Buckley’s last game coaching with the club, I’m expecting Collingwood to be fire up and put in a big effort early. This is where Melbourne come in, they are the strongest second half side in the comp and although there will be some initial resistance early in this game, I’m fully expecting them to run over the pies in the latter part of the game.


2.5u - May 20+ disposals - $3.40 - 365
Should be closer to a $1.80-$2 price. Has cleared this in 6/11 games (injury affected game removed). Is the lead kick in taker for the Dees and a big plus with Collingwood ranked 16th for shot conversion. Collingwood’s ability to retain the ball in their forward 50 is also extremely poor and allows opposition defenders to rack up disposals as they move the ball out on the rebound. Big value on this one. Find this in bet builder.

5u - Pertracca, Crisp, Sidebottom 20+, Oliver 25+ disposals - $1.76 - TopSport

 

[Ohh Ok]

waiting on ohhh oks tips and hoping to see some 5unit bombs

On cue

 

[Bucking Bronco]

Busy building long shot multis to try to get back all the coin I've lost so far this round.

Melbourne 40+ is in most of them. The Dees have dispatched the Lions and the Dogs by 20+ in the last couple of weeks. They are in great form, Pies are not.

Collingwood with 44 inside 50's last week. Can't win doing that. You'd expect Gawn to give Melbourne first use and we could see 60 inside 50's to 40 today.

How are Collingwood not in good form?

They just won as a $3 underdog in their most recent game, and covered the line easily in the two games previous to that against two top 5 teams.

Sure, they're not a good team, but for what they are, you certainly can't say they're in "bad form". They're clearly outperforming where the market values them the last 3 weeks straight. Collingwood at the line is the value here if anything.

 

[dontlimitme]

On cue

love your work!!!

 

[Mazza1234678]

How are Collingwood not in good form?

They just won as a $3 underdog in their most recent game, and covered the line easily in the two games previous to that against two top 5 teams.

Sure, they're not a good team, but for what they are, you certainly can't say they're in "bad form". They're clearly outperforming where the market values them the last 3 weeks straight. Collingwood at the line is the value here if anything.

If Grundy was playing I’d be truck loading the +29.5

Bucks last game, Dees are due an off one you would think and Pies defense can keep this close

Although I expect Gawn to have a field day without Grundy so this could get ugly

Impossible game to predict

 

[NYRB]

Chris Mayne has been included in this side, will play as the tagger on Clayton Oliver.

I'd be a bit careful on getting on betting on disposals for Oliver today.

 

[md20]

TAB has J. Elliott 2+ $2.10 when his 3 games this season are 2.0, 2.0, 6.0.
Think PB have it around where it should be at $1.65

 

[NYRB]

TAB has J. Elliott 2+ $2.10 when his 3 games this season are 2.0, 2.0, 6.0.
Think PB have it around where it should be at $1.65

TopSport have Elliott to score 2+ Goals @ $2.75

 

[Ohh Ok]

I’ve found it’s not often that the bet365 bet builders provide better value than other bookies SGMs. This one though is a good $50-60 better than I could find at any other bookie. Albeit I couldn’t add a second half line anywhere else, but made them as close as possible.

Thought it was a good way to give my weekly loyalty bonus back to bet365

 

[md20]

TopSport have Elliott to score 2+ Goals @ $2.75

I have to get onto this TopSport.

Went onto it once a few weeks ago and just hated the feel of it for some reason so havent gone back. But those odds and some that I have seen posted are too good.

 

[Robo87]

Where the fu** are my fellow degens?

im taking a risk on weideman goals 2,3,4,5 as stated earlier in week and tailed bloodret this morning on his elliot odds at TS.
2.2u elliot 2g+ @2.99 TS
1.5u elliot 3g+ @8 TS
1u elliot 4g+ @26 TS
0.5u elliot 5g+ @75 TS
0.2u elliot 6g+ @202 TS

 

[md20]

Topsport has some pretty juicy odds for jamie elliot coming off a bag, scg may suit?

3, 4, 5, 6+ @8, 26, 71, 201

De goey 4, 5, 6+ @18, 71, 151 sb

I reckon one of them is a chance to get 4+

Nathan Murphy named HFF, apparently is utility but has been trialled up forward recently is 3.90 ts so ive also chucked
Elliot 2
Murphy
Weidemen
@18 ts

Shit I didnt see this and posted Elliott at worse odds. Sorry mate/guys

 

[chrisdon16]

Melbourne -28.5

 

[NYRB]

PointsBet spread tips for today for Stat Multiplier (Kicks x Goals x Handballs):

Using $1.00 stakes

Tom McDonald OVER 111
Clayton Oliver UNDER 115
Ed Langdon OVER 104
Fritsch UNDER 86
James Harmes NO PLAY
Kysaiah Pickett NO PLAY
Max Gawn OVER 62
Alex Neal-Bullen NO PLAY
Sam Weidemann OVER 40
Angus Brayshaw NO PLAY
Jordan de Goey UNDER 103
Steele Sidebottom OVER 71
Josh Daicos OVER 68
Jamie Elliott OVER 66
Will Hoskin-Elliott OVER 56
Brody Mihocek OVER 53
Scott Pendlebury NO PLAY

 

[tangolikelama]

 

[NYRB]

don't like betting on overs on Collingwood matches, have been burnt past with their slow style footy.

But today with nice weather in Sydney, Bucks last game, just feel the game will open up a bit more.