AFL 2021 AFL Round 3

[NYRB]

Swans are caught up in Brisbane's COVID chaos, have to stay at home. Interesting to see how having no training will impact the Swans here. I think having training is an important aspect, so Richmond in my opinion should shorten on lines given the news.

 

[juss]

Squiggle says otherwise

Regardless I think the original quote was a 90% confidence in a Lions/Eagles multi!

I would not trust this guy with my bankroll

 

[NYRB]

Last time I checked Heeney was 7ish for 3+ on neds and 2.80 for 2+ AGS

Cox 2.20 for 2+ and 5 for 3+ AGS on SB. He's kicked 2+ in both games this year.

BTW i think neds and ladbrokes have nearly identical pricing for goal scorers

'Here to stay': Ladbrokes doubles down with acquisition of bookie Neds

Online gambling powerhouse Ladbrokes has struck a deal to to take over one of Australia's newest gambling sites, Neds, for up to $95 million.

www.smh.com.au

You will find Sportsbet and Palmerbet offering pretty similar odds to each other. I think Sportsbet might own Palmerbet as well?

 

[juss]

For those who aren't on NEDS/Ladbrokes I encourage you to if you are ever line betting. Not only are the lines usually good, but they give you $2.
Anywhere else you are throwing away money when they undercut you with $1.90 lines.

 

[iluvparis]

I've got tigers in my multi, everyone on here seems confident, but swans have such a quick agile team with young guns, could they be dangerous at the G in the wide open space? am i overrating the swans?

Probably underrating the Tigers.

 

[FrankGrimes]

What if the Big O misses? Has to destroy them structurally with no ruckman

Exactly Grundy will run amok you think, and think they have no backup ruckman also

 

[burge13]

For those who aren't on NEDS/Ladbrokes I encourage you to if you are ever line betting. Not only are the lines usually good, but they give you $2.
Anywhere else you are throwing away money when they undercut you with $1.90 lines.

The 2 books fastest to ban me

Pathetic bookies (in my experience) and anyone winning slightly on the $2 lines will get banned quick smart

I'm not even good with footy, some of you blokes wouldn't last a week with them

 

[iluvparis]

The 2 books fastest to ban me

Pathetic bookies (in my experience) and anyone winning slightly on the $2 lines will get banned quick smart

I'm not even good with footy, some of you blokes wouldn't last a week with them

I even had a punters club with mates on lads we we all tipped in $50 or something and they banned us from using promos after a guy spiked some random ODI market for runs in the first over to be tied between the two teams.

 

[kicksome]

The 2 books fastest to ban me

Yeah I've been banned from all their promos. They can go and get ****ed

 

[burge13]

I even had a punters club with mates on lads we we all tipped in $50 or something and they banned us from using promos after a guy spiked some random ODI market for runs in the first over to be tied between the two teams.

Neds text me (no idea how they got my number) a $500 sign up bonus

Deposited and they banned me from boxing/mma before I even got through the freebets. Why offer it to people if that's your insipid level of risk tolerance?!

Even worse the government agencies who don't understand (or worse, do and ignore it) this and just let bookies take losers on with no limits...

 

[Ohh Ok]

I've got tigers in my multi, everyone on here seems confident, but swans have such a quick agile team with young guns, could they be dangerous at the G in the wide open space? am i overrating the swans?

The crows only converted 33% of their scoring shots on the weekend, last year they converted 47% for the season, if they went at their usual clip from 2020 they would've ended up with 15.5 goals, round it down to 15 and their scoreline reads 15.18, 108 points and only a 12 point loss. In round one the crows conversion rate was 54% which would've equated to 17.15, 117 points. Now obviously that's just a statistical view of the game and there is always more to it than that, but I think based on the crows inaccuracy and the bigger match margin the Swans are being overvalued here.

Adding to the overvaluation of the swans is obviously them knocking off the Lions in round 1. We know that those conditions are generally favourable to the underdog and often bring teams a lot closer together. During that game the swans put up an elite third quarter with over 80% disposal efficiency whilst booting 9 of their 19 goals for the match, in the only quarter they won.

 

[Ohh Ok]

Neds text me (no idea how they got my number) a $500 sign up bonus

Deposited and they banned me from boxing/mma before I even got through the freebets. Why offer it to people if that's your insipid level of risk tolerance?!

Even worse the government agencies who don't understand (or worse, do and ignore it) this and just let bookies take losers on with no limits...

Assuming you're from Adelaide? I've found some bookies don't let us get on boxing/mma, must be something in our legislation?

 

[Ohh Ok]

really good analysis man. you're a top punter

Takes a four quarter effort to even come close to the Tigers at the MCG, let down spot/reality check for the swans in my opinion.

 

[BloodRet]

Daicos is 1.90 to snag one on lads, pretty good value too

 

[burge13]

Assuming you're from Adelaide? I've found some bookies don't let us get on boxing/mma, must be something in our legislation?

I got no idea but Unibet, Sportsbet and Pointsbet have given me no problems. Especially on boxing

 

[chrisdon16]

The crows only converted 33% of their scoring shots on the weekend, last year they converted 47% for the season, if they went at their usual clip from 2020 they would've ended up with 15.5 goals, round it down to 15 and their scoreline reads 15.18, 108 points and only a 12 point loss. In round one the crows conversion rate was 54% which would've equated to 17.15, 117 points. Now obviously that's just a statistical view of the game and there is always more to it than that, but I think based on the crows inaccuracy and the bigger match margin the Swans are being overvalued here.

Adding to the overvaluation of the swans is obviously them knocking off the Lions in round 1. We know that those conditions are generally favourable to the underdog and often bring teams a lot closer together. During that game the swans put up an elite third quarter with over 80% disposal efficiency whilst booting 9 of their 19 goals for the match, in the only quarter they won.

Like Adelaide too. But the Swans took the foot off the gas in the 4th because the game was over

 

[SirBont]

Like Adelaide too. But the Swans took the foot off the gas in the 4th because the game was over

hey mate interesting to see why arn't you punting yet on the AFL I have made some great profit on some of the earlier games

 

[chrisdon16]

hey mate interesting to see why arn't you punting yet on the AFL I have made some great profit on some of the earlier games

Didn't bet due to the pandemic last season. Having a crack this season starting Round 4.

 

[juss]

The 2 books fastest to ban me

Pathetic bookies (in my experience) and anyone winning slightly on the $2 lines will get banned quick smart

I'm not even good with footy, some of you blokes wouldn't last a week with them

Woah, just as I checked back, I've been reverted back to $1.90 lines on NEDS because I've had a winning start to the year.
I haven't even taken them for that much! Time to switch to Ladbrokes for a bit....

This is why I hate the corporates so much. The only problem is Betfair does not have all the markets and it's sometimes hard to get your bets matched on the exchange.

 

[BloodRet]

Charlie Cameron

23

Charlie Cameron

Age

30

Ht

180cm

Wt

76kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

12.1

3star

K

8.4

3star

HB

3.7

3star

M

3.0

3star

T

3.2

5star

G

1.5

5star

D

9.6

2star

K

7.9

3star

HB

1.7

1star

M

3.6

4star

T

1.7

3star

G

1.9

5star

D

9.6

3star

K

5.4

2star

HB

4.2

4star

M

1.4

2star

T

3.4

5star

G

1.2

4star

2
Daniher 2
Thomas

Buddy 2
Lynch 2
Logan McDonald
@13.75

Daicos
Mcluggage

McDonald

Devon smith

5

Devon Smith

Age

31

Ht

176cm

Wt

78kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

18.8

5star

K

11.1

4star

HB

7.8

5star

M

3.3

3star

T

5.3

5star

G

0.9

4star

D

16.3

4star

K

9.1

4star

HB

7.1

4star

M

2.3

2star

T

5.0

5star

G

0.6

4star

D

15.6

4star

K

9.2

4star

HB

6.4

4star

M

3.0

3star

T

4.0

5star

G

0.2

3star

Marc Murphy
Cripps
@48

 

[NYRB]

PointsBet Special for Thursday

Joe Daniher and Jordan DeGoey to kick 5+ Goals combined paying $4.00




or you could do a Same Game Multi

Daniher 2+, De Goey 3+ at $4.75
Daniher 3+, De Goey 2+ at $4.50
Daniher 1+, DeGoey 4+ at $6.75
Daniher 4+, DeGoey 1+ at $7.00


Get a sneaky feeling DeGoey going to have a good game. Loves the prime time.

 

[NYRB]

Found a great goalscorer bet but if i post it will it get smashe dand odds drop? what do i do?

Take it for yourself first.

 

[HTPunter]

Found a great goalscorer bet but if i post it will it get smashe dand odds drop? what do i do?

ok thanks im scared

Very potentially yes. I figure you may as well take the odds yourself THEN bet, otherwise there's a small risk someone who doesn't contribute to the forum sees it and smashes it and we all lose out, you included. At least if you bet first then post, and the odds are then crunched, one actual contributor has benefitted.

 

[ASP3X]

Oh man Josh Thomas has ruined so many multis for me. He's always like 1.70-1.80 to kick a goal and you always think he'll snag at least one but nope, goalless in 13 of his last 16 matches. In saying that, I'll take the $4 for 2+ this week assuming he isn't dropped.

The last time he was a halfway decent goal-kicking option was in 2018 - the same year Elliott missed the entire season. Could be worth a look. He didn't get near it last week, though, so I'm skeptical.

This is all very true. Thomas has screwed a couple of multis for me in the first 2 rounds. This is his best spot (assuming he's named) and if he doesn't snag a couple this week he goes on the shit list never to be bet on again!

 

[Atavistic]

Found a great goalscorer bet but if i post it will it get smashe dand odds drop? what do i do?

You PM it to mouncey2franklin first, then he mashes up a photoshopped image of said player and we start a train.