AFL 2021 AFL Round 3

[jikost]

Hoskin-Elliott $3.50 to kick 2+ Goals

WHE is another who could benefit from Elliot being out. Like Thomas his best year was also 2018 (the year Elliot didn't play), where he kicked 2+ 13 times. WHE probably plays deeper too this week with Elliot's replacement Mayne coming in who will play up the ground. WHE 3+ @ 10 and 4+ @ 41 is defininely worth considering.

 

[Dominion]

I think your biggest risk there is Melbourne, if you win the first two legs, I'd be putting someone on Giants to cover as a hedge for sure

This makes absolutely no sense. If you're planning to hedge just don't put it in the multi the first place.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

I still like freo without fyfe,no martin and fisher now too

Agree the no Martin and Fisher are worse outs especially Martin.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

WHE is another who could benefit from Elliot being out. Like Thomas his best year was also 2018 (the year Elliot didn't play), where he kicked 2+ 13 times. WHE probably plays deeper too this week with Elliot's replacement Mayne coming in who will play up the ground. WHE 3+ @ 10 and 4+ @ 41 is defininely worth considering.

Been burnt to many times on WHE he just does his Rohan impersonation all the time of going donuts.

 

[HTPunter]

Starting to wonder if a lot of the good teams from last year where maybe only that for certain reasons that aren't valid anymore. Geelong two small close wins - the shorter games. helped them. Brisbane - home games all season.

I mean they also finished 1st and 2nd on the H&A ladder in 2019

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Willing to take a chance on Brisbane tonight in a few multis, Ellliot out is half of the Pies forward line and they can just shut De Grey down...not as if the useless Texan will do much.

They were one dreadful umpire call away from 1-1 last week. Just a feeling 1-39 for me into a few legs.

 

[juss]

This makes absolutely no sense. If you're planning to hedge just don't put it in the multi the first place.

That's mug punter thinking.

He's putting on $500 to win about 3.5k from memory.
If it gets to his last leg and he has Melbourne - 7.5, he could either leave it and risk losing $500, or he could put ~$500 on GWS +8.5 for example and guarantee that he either breaks even or still wins about $2.5k. Depending on the lines, he might even be able to middle and win both bets.

Sure he can gamble and "let it ride" but he can eliminate all his risk in the last leg and have a free hit at a tidy profit or break even.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

That's mug thinking.

He's putting on $500 to win about 3.5k from memory.
If it gets to his last leg and he has Melbourne - 7.5, he could either let it ride and risk losing $500, or he could put $500 on GWS +8.5 for example and guarantee that he either breaks even or still wins about $2.5k.

He can eliminate all his risk in the last leg and have a free hit at a tidy profit.

Correct. Do that a bit with NBA games which have been prone to screw me someway shape or form

 

[juss]

Willing to take a chance on Brisbane tonight in a few multis, Ellliot out is half of the Pies forward line and they can just shut De Grey down...not as if the useless Texan will do much.

They were one dreadful umpire call away from 1-1 last week. Just a feeling 1-39 for me into a few legs.

The $2 line has just jumped to +5.5 for Lions, I've cost myself a few points as earlier in the week it was only 2.5, but it might even drift another point or two if you wait, unless of course you're just going H2H

 

[juss]

Rate this. If kicking boots are on 5+ wouldn't surprise.

Paying 4.50 for five and 9.50 for six.

Could happen but at those odds I'm not buying tickets for the train.

Best of luck to those of you who do, hope he stops in Moneyville for you.

Personally I like the Walters train. Tends to kick a bag every season and this could be his best opportunity.

Averages two goals per game at Colonial (compared to about one per game at the 'G).

Likely to replace Fyfe, who spent last week up forward. Can slot right into the forward 50.

Carlton's pressure is crap and they will get cut up on the transition. Walters to cash in.

3+ @ 3.40
4+ @ 8
5+ @ 21
6+ @ 61

Just had a look at the odds and you're right. Only $4.50 for 5+ doesn't scream value for me.
Was thinking it'd be a bit higher, seems Sportsbet also think he might kick a few.

 

[iluvparis]

That's mug punter thinking.

He's putting on $500 to win about 3.5k from memory.
If it gets to his last leg and he has Melbourne - 7.5, he could either leave it and risk losing $500, or he could put ~$500 on GWS +8.5 for example and guarantee that he either breaks even or still wins about $2.5k. Depending on the lines, he might even be able to middle and win both bets.

Sure he can gamble and "let it ride" but he can eliminate all his risk in the last leg and have a free hit at a tidy profit or break even.

He can also eliminate all his risk in the last leg by not including it.

 

[iluvparis]

Correct. Do that a bit with NBA games which have been prone to screw me someway shape or form

Horrendous way to bet and just burning money

 

[LukeParkerno1]

The $2 line has just jumped to +5.5 for Lions, I've cost myself a few points as earlier in the week it was only 2.5, but it might even drift another point or two if you wait, unless of course you're just going H2H

I'll wait till later and get a better price for 1-39 on the Lions. People are going overboard on the Pies win last week...it was only Carlton! They were flogged beyond anything against the Dogs...Brisbane are more like the Dogs quality than Carlton.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Horrendous way to bet and just burning money

It reduces the stress, and that's the main thing, and when it's a 5-6 leg multi I'm happy this way.

 

[juss]

He can also eliminate all his risk in the last leg by not including it.

Makes more money by adding it though and then doing my suggestion, and gives himself a middle opportunity to win both potentially.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

What's more "safe" Lions +18.5 or Blues win vs freo

Lions 18.5+ easily. Blues probably lose without half their forward line.

 

[juss]

Horrendous way to bet and just burning money

Seriously? I've seen you post and you're a smart enough punter to know the advantages. If you do the math, you can clearly see the advantages.

 

[iluvparis]

It reduces the stress, and that's the main thing, and when it's a 5-6 leg multi I'm happy this way.

THEN JUST DON'T INCLUDE THE LEG IN THE FIRST PLACE YOU MUPPET

 

[iluvparis]

Makes more money by adding it though and then doing my suggestion, and gives himself a middle opportunity to win both potentially.

Tell me how this is an advantage over just excluding that leg - winning your two leg multi - and then betting on the last game outright with the winnings.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

THEN JUST DON'T INCLUDE THE LEG IN THE FIRST PLACE YOU MUPPET

And take less? Waste of time. I'll just hedge for a smaller amount. You have your way, I have mine.Both are fine.

 

[iluvparis]

And take less? Waste of time. I'll just hedge for a smaller amount. You have your way, I have mine.Both are fine.

You realize if you are hedging then not including it to begin with is the exact same thing right? And you are actually worse off by paying the rake twice - plus you will never 'hedge' your multis where early legs lose. Hedging the last leg of big multis is one of the bigger -EV plays going aorund.

 

[Islanda22]

What's more "safe" Lions +18.5 or Blues win vs freo

Lions +18.5

 

[juss]

Tell me how this is an advantage over just excluding that leg - winning your two leg multi - and then betting on the last game outright with the winnings.

Well firstly, you said nothing at all about reinvesting the winnings in your comment from what I read.

Your original comment though:
Assuming the first two legs win

2 legs of line bets
$500 at (1.9x1.9=$3.61)= $1805
Potential profit = $1305

3 legs of line bets
$500 at (1.9x1.9x1.9=$6.86)= $3429.50
Potential profit = $2929.50
Potential loss = $500

3 legs of line bets with hedge
$500 at (1.9x1.9x1.9=$6.86)= $3429.50
$550 hedge at GWS +8.5 @ $1.90 = $1045
Potential profit = $2379.50 or $-5 if leg loses (I could adjust by a few dollars to make this a break even 0)
Potential loss = Basically Zero. No risk.

Potential middle big win, if he gets -7.5 and +8.5 and the first team win by 8
Potential profit = $3424.5


If he can get $2 lines from a bookie, he gets an even better deal doing it my way. Not to mention, with multi bet boosts and the like, it's even more favourable in my scenario with the third leg added originally.

Reduce risk, maximise profit. Gives himself an opportunity for a risk free middle. I'd be going with scenario 2 in the long term making a lot more money. In the scenario we played out, by adding in the third leg at the start he increases his profit potential by almost $600.

Check my maths, I'm currently standing on a train and hope I haven't made a dick of my numbers. If the maths is wrong, let me know because I've been doing this at times and it's been working for me.

 

[iluvparis]

Well firstly, you said nothing at all about reinvesting the winnings in your comment from what I read.

Your original comment though:
Assuming the first two legs win

2 legs of line bets
$500 at (1.9x1.9=$3.61)= $1805
Potential profit = $1305

3 legs of line bets
$500 at (1.9x1.9x1.9=$6.86)= $3429.50
Potential profit = $2929.50
Potential loss = $500

3 legs of line bets with hedge
$500 at (1.9x1.9x1.9=$6.86)= $3429.50
$550 hedge at GWS +8.5 @ $1.90 = $1045
Potential profit = $2379.50 or $-5 if leg loses (I could adjust by a few dollars to make this a break even 0)
Potential loss = Basically Zero. No risk.

Potential middle big win, if he gets -7.5 and +8.5 and the first team win by 8
Potential profit = $3424.5


If he can get $2 lines from a bookie, he gets an even better deal doing it my way. Not to mention, with multi bet boosts and the like, it's even more favourable in my scenario with the third leg added originally.

Reduce risk, maximise profit. Gives himself an opportunity for a risk free middle. I'd be going with scenario 2 in the long term making a lot more money. In the scenario we played out, by adding in the third leg at the start he increases his profit potential by almost $600.

Check my maths, I'm currently standing on a train and hope I haven't made a dick of my numbers. If the maths is wrong, let me know because I've been doing this at times and it's been working for me.

The first two options are the same

You can put the $1805 on Melbourne at the line at 1.9 and get the same profit/loss outcomes.

 

[juss]

The first two options are the same

You can put the $1805 on Melbourne at the line at 1.9 and get the same profit/loss outcomes.

What about multi boosts or the middle opportunity? And the third hedge scenario means you aren't losing your original 500, whereas if you reinvest the 1800 you are. Its not the same from my numbers.