AFL 2021 AFL Round 3

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Starting to wonder if a lot of the good teams from last year where maybe only that for certain reasons that aren't valid anymore. Geelong two small close wins - the shorter games. helped them. Brisbane - home games all season.
 

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NYRB said:
If you can find your niche, I think its a way to profit.

If one team performs poorly, and you bet on unders you profit.

if its an end to end game and you bet on overs, you can profit too.

PointsBet rules on Cross Goals:

" This is a bet on the total number of goals scored by Collingwood multiplied by the total number of goals scored by Brisbane Lions. E.g. A bet on OVER 200 means that if the number of goals scored by Collingwood multiplied by the number of goals scored by Brisbane Lions is 250, you win 50 times your stake (i.e. a $10 stake will win $500). Max win/loss is capped at 150 times your stake. Bet includes Extra Time. "


Doing some simple math think about that margin

The middle margins where PointsBet would profit:
Team A : 11 goals v Team B: 14 Goals = 154, Lost to the punter, Win to PointsBet
Team A: 11 Goals v Team B: 13 Goals= 143, Lost to the punter, Win to PointsBet
Team A: 12 Goals v Team B: 12 Goals= 144, Lost to the punter, Win To PointsBet
Team A: 12 Goals v Team B: 13 Goals=156, Lost to the punter, Win To PointsBet
Team A: 10 Goals v Team B: 14 Goals=154, Lost to the punter, Win to PointsBet
Team A: 9 Goals v Team B:16 Goals=144, Lost to the Punter, Win to PointsBet
Team A: 8 Goals v Team B: 18 Goals= 144, Lost to the Punter, Win to PointsBet
Team A: 8 Goals v Team B: 19 Goals=152 , Lost to the Punter, Win to PointsBet
Team A: 7 Goals v Team B: 20 Goals=140, Lost to the Punter, Win to PointsBet
Team A: 7 Goals v Team B: 21 Goals= 147, Lost to the Punter, Win to PointsBet
Team A: 7 Goals v Team B: 22 Goals= 154 , Lost to the Punter, Win to PointsBet
Team A: 6 Goals V Team B: 24 Goals= 144, Lost to the Punter, Win to PointsBet
Team A: 6 Goals v Team B: 25 Goals=150, Lost to the Punter, Win to PointsBet
Team A: 6 Goals v Team B: 26 Goals=156, Lost to the Punter, Win to PointsBet
Team A: 5 Goals v Team B: 28 Goals= 140, Lost to the Punter, Win to PointsBet
Team A: 5 Goals v Team B: 29 Goals=145 , Lost to the Punter, Win to PointsBet
Team A: 5 Goals v Team B: 30 Goals= 150, Lost to the Punter, Win to PointsBet
Team A : 5 Goals v Team B: 31 Goals=155, Lost to the Punter, Win to PointsBet
Team A: 4 Goals v Team B: 35 Goals= 140 , Lost to the Punter, Win to PointsBet
Team A: 4 Goals v Team B: 36 Goals=144, Lost to the Punter, Win to PointsBet
Team A: 4 Goals v Team B: 37 Goals=148 , Lost to the Punter, Win to PointsBet
Team A: 4 Goals v Team B: 38 Goals=152, Lost to the Punter, Win to PointsBet


I have to agree with you paris after doing the review, i think the spread is too large.Could see any one of those top 5 landing..........
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Spread betting is the one where your risk can blow out isn't it?
You'd need a handy bankroll behind you and a pretty high risk tolerance, but as you said, for some if that's their niche good on them.

I am a simple punter: H2H, lines and occasionally margin markets like Tribets or 1-39 etc. It works for me.

It amazes me how good some people are with their Total Points, Goal scorer, Fantasy Points, Most Disposals, etc. bets. There are way to many markets for me to be across and get an edge on.
 
OnThePunt99 said:
Thoughts on this Multi?

WB
Tigers
Saints
Eagles
Blues

Dogs lock,
Tigers should win at the G against a young swans side
Saints should win given essendon's outs
I think the eagles will be really motivated to bounce back and win at home
Blues i think will win as well, i really rate freo and give them a good chance to win this but just think blues will be too desperate. I also think etihad won't suit freo's style.
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Blues hate Etihad, better team at the g
 
This happens every year, the good sides are a little slow out the gates, and the bad sides start well and fade away. Occasionally you get a bad side that jumps up like the lions a few years ago but its probably 1 in 10. Same with good sides dropping off. Adelaide/Freo examples of that.
 
juss said:
I think your biggest risk there is Melbourne, if you win the first two legs, I'd be putting someone on Giants to cover as a hedge for sure
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Dont stress. Melksham should be back playing this week.
 
jikost said:
Yeah whatever Grundy's fantasy line is this week, the overs look a nice bet. Also taking Collingwood/Grundy 20+/Grundy AGS @ $12.48 lads
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Don't know much about Fantasy betting

But here are the odds from PointsBet for Brodie Grundy:

Grundy to get 80+ points $1.10
Grundy to get 90+ points $1.21
Grundy to get 100+ points $1.40
Grundy to get 110+ points $1.70
Grundy to get 120+ points $2.25

Grundy Under 111.5 points $2.00 v $1.75 Grundy Over 111.5 points
 
Like the look of Grundy 120+ Total Points @ 2.25 with No Oscar McInerney playing.
 

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Yeah he should clear that. He cleared 140 fantasy points 9 times in 2019. Against Ballenden/Fullarton he wins 80-90% of hitouts and will pick up cheap possessions around the ground. Just needs a few tackles and he gets to 120 easy.
 
PointsBet have released the spreads for Points scored by the following players:

Joe Daniher: 12-15 points
Hipwood : 11-14 points
Charlie Cameron: 10-13 Points
McCarthy: 6-9 points
Zac Bailey: 5-8 points
DeGoey: 12-15 points
Mihocek: 12-15 points
Mason Cox: 8-11 points
Hoskin-Elliott: 5-8 points

Best odds I could find for 2+ Goals goalscorers
Mason Cox $2.10 to kick 2+ Goals
Hoskin-Elliott $3.50 to kick 2+ Goals
Bailey $3.10 to kick 2+ Goals
McCarthy $2.85 to kick 2+ Goals
The other 5 are under evens to kick 2+ Goals
 
With the Goalscorer spread bets on Pointsbet, you would be capped if you bet on OVERS, and if your player happened out of the blue to kick a lazy bag of 12 goals or more, you would be limited to how much you could win.

I haven't seen many markets offered for 7+ Goals, 8+ Goals anymore. I would love to see is personally.
 
I'll have a stab at the Points:


Joe Daniher: 12-15 points = UNDER 12 PTS
Hipwood : 11-14 points= OVER 14 PTS
Charlie Cameron: 10-13 Points= MIDDLE (BETWEEN 10 and 13)
McCarthy: 6-9 points= OVER 9 PTS
Zac Bailey: 5-8 points= OVER 8 PTS
DeGoey: 12-15 points= OVER 15 PTS
Mihocek: 12-15 points= MIDDLE (BETWEEN 12 and 15)
Mason Cox: 8-11 points= OVER 11 PTS
Hoskin-Elliott: 5-8 points= OVER 8 PTS
 
The big cox is 1.30 ags on pointsbet tomorrow, 17 for 4+, bit of value between. Harris Andrews should be one to shut him down but **** it who knows
 
BloodRet said:
The big cox is 1.30 ags on pointsbet tomorrow, 17 for 4+, bit of value between. Harris Andrews should be one to shut he down but fu** it who knows
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Harris Andrews gets the best forward, I think he goes to Mihochek first up. That should leave Mason Cox with the 2nd best tall defender for me.
 
Harry mckay to go nuts against a weaken freo backline? Been saying that first 2 rounds and hasn’t come true yet.. but did kick 4 against Moore and will be main and almost only target
 
FrankGrimes said:
Harry mckay to go nuts against a weaken freo backline? Been saying that first 2 rounds and hasn’t come true yet.. but did kick 4 against Moore and will be main and almost only target
Click to expand...
Rate this. If kicking boots are on 5+ wouldn't surprise.
 
FrankGrimes said:
Harry mckay to go nuts against a weaken freo backline? Been saying that first 2 rounds and hasn’t come true yet.. but did kick 4 against Moore and will be main and almost only target
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Paying 4.50 for five and 9.50 for six.

Could happen but at those odds I'm not buying tickets for the train.

Best of luck to those of you who do, hope he stops in Moneyville for you.

Personally I like the Walters train. Tends to kick a bag every season and this could be his best opportunity.

Averages two goals per game at Colonial (compared to about one per game at the 'G).

Likely to replace Fyfe, who spent last week up forward. Can slot right into the forward 50.

Carlton's pressure is crap and they will get cut up on the transition. Walters to cash in.

3+ @ 3.40
4+ @ 8
5+ @ 21
6+ @ 61
 
mouncey2franklin said:
Paying 4.50 for five and 9.50 for six.

Could happen but at those odds I'm not buying tickets for the train.

Best of luck to those of you who do, hope he stops in Moneyville for you.

Personally I like the Walters train. Tends to kick a bag every season and this could be his best opportunity.

Averages two goals per game at Colonial (compared to about one per game at the 'G).

Likely to replace Fyfe, who spent last week up forward. Can slot right into the forward 50.

Carlton's pressure is crap and they will get cut up on the transition. Walters to cash in.

3+ @ 3.40
4+ @ 8
5+ @ 21
6+ @ 61
Click to expand...
first up from a spell, he is a gun though.. its your fault these big bags odds are crap now!! with your round 1 find!
 

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