AFL 2021 AFL Round 8

[SM]

Actually he is not, if you look at the math, its pretty obvious he got the profit he stated from his staking. What he bet on the PB promo is irrelevant.

Definitely mate. You're right.

 

[GROTTO]

Definitely mate. You're right.

All good.

 

[chrisdon16]

Definitely glad I brought this up

 

[GROTTO]

Definitely glad I brought this up

Now I know why you just post a bet and not say anything else.

 

[Ohh Ok]

**** me there has been some trash in here this week.

Pretty simple, basically the point is that it’s hard to track/share capped promo bets when talking in units. As it’s probably a little unfair for people where $20 is only 0.2 or 0.4 etc. Robbo posts some great stuff anyways and congrats on the massive night. Hope you enjoy yourself a nice steak or top shelf drink tonight!

Anyways, I’ll post some tips, because I’m pretty sure that’s what this forum is for.

Gold Coast vs St Kilda
2.5u - St Kilda SU - $2.04 - SB
Still keen on the Saints, last week showed just how important Ryder is for their structure. A real season turning performance for them last week. A lot of talent on the roster and still big final aspirations. Will be nice dry conditions today that suit the way the Saints want to play.

Giants vs Essendon
3u - Greene/Himmelberg 5+ goals combined - $1.80 - TAB
2u - Greene/Himmelberg 6+ goals combined - $2.50 - TAB
Sportsbet only rating 5+ a $1.57 chance. Essendon giving up the third most marks inside 50 in the comp and these two leading the way for the giants in that stat and goals. Essendon off the back of copping 123 points to Carlton, 85 to the rough pies, 102 in the wet to the lions and have actually conceded the second most points in the comp. Could be a day out for one of these two.

2u - McGrath under 26.5 disposals - $1.80 - Ladbrokes
Only gone over on bigger, wider grounds. Giants been back to their restrictive selves in recent weeks. Should be tough for McGrath out in the wing today.

2.5u - Merrett under 32.5 disposals - $1.70 - TopSport
Gone over 3/7. As previously mentioned uncontested disposals won’t come as easy as usual today for Merrett. Teams have also found success when limiting him getting the ball. GWS aren’t afraid to send players on run with roles, so there is potential for him to cop attention throughout the day.

North Melbourne vs Collingwood
2.5u - Grundy AGS - $1.80 - Ladbrokes
Still a good price to take on Grundy. Has kicked goals in each of his last three matches. Cameron in the side has allowed him to free up in the forward line a bit more. Rucks been hitting the scoreboard against North and a good chance he gets rested forward if the game blows out too.

2u - Noble 20+ disposals - $2.35 - TAB
Seeing improvement in his game playing off half back. 4/7 on this one this year. Half backers doing well on north this year.

4u - Cunnington over 26.5 disposals - $1.95 Ladbrokes
In short, Collingwood are a rabble and giving up big numbers. Cunnington has eased himself into the season after spending more time forward in his first two games. Since then he has cleared this one 3/3.

Melbourne vs Sydney
4u - Melbourne -5.5 (last quarter only) - $1.90 - Ladbrokes
Sydney off a tough physically taxing game in the wet up against Melbourne who had a cruisy performance against North. Melbourne are the fittest team in the comp and have won every last quarter so far this season. The dees to run away with it late.

Port Adelaide vs Crows
3u - Adelaide under 68.5 points - $1.85 - TAB
Toughest match up for the year for the crows and also their first night game of the year. Scores for the crows have probably been slightly inflated due to playing in perfect weather during the middle of the day each week. Will happily take this bet against their toughest defensive opponent to date in some favourable conditions.

 

[Benjo_]

Another one I like for today is Aaron Hall 120+ Fantasy at $4 on PB. He's scored 99, 123 and 143 in a new half-back role this season, excluding games where he was medical sub and out for concussion. Anyone who plays AFL Fantasy knows that the Pies absolutely leak disposals to opposition mids and half-backmen!

 

[Sausage Legs]

Pissin down already in adel. Ollie wines fapping

 

[GROTTO]

Pissin down already in adel. Ollie wines fapping

I live on the east side a few kms from AO.

No rain.

Thats not to say its not raining in other parts of Adelaide.

 

[mouncey2franklin]

This is the only board on bigfooty I pay any attention to.

Some of my best moments post muh lockdowns have been shared with the good folks of this board.

Seeing people arguing here is like listening to friends argue. Over women who aren't worth it.

 

[Ohh Ok]

I live on the east side a few kms from AO.

No rain.

Thats not to say its not raining in other parts of Adelaide.

Yep. Pissing in the foot hills, but not much to go by...

 

[GROTTO]

Port Adelaide vs Crows
3u - Adelaide under 68.5 points - $1.85 - TAB
Toughest match up for the year for the crows and also their first night game of the year. Scores for the crows have probably been slightly inflated due to playing in perfect weather during the middle of the day each week. Will happily take this bet against their toughest defensive opponent to date in some favourable conditions.

Fun Facts with Grotto

In the previous 4 games (H&A and trial games) the Crows have crossed this total just once, 73pts, IIRC Port were resting players too in this game after HT.

Scores have been H&A - 35,42, Trial games 45, 73

 

[NYRB]

2u - Noble 20+ disposals - $2.35 - TAB
Seeing improvement in his game playing off half back. 4/7 on this one this year. Half backers doing well on north this year.

You have sold me on the Noble bet.

He is going up against his dad too, which will be extra motivation for him to do well.


20+ Disposals = $2.30 at Sportsbet

I know the stats don't support Noble getting 25+ but also had a play on that as well at odds of $9.00



And one hail mary,

Noble 25+ Disposals
Michael Walters 25+ Disposals

at odds of 189.00

 

[dontlimitme]

fu** me there has been some trash in here this week.

Pretty simple, basically the point is that it’s hard to track/share capped promo bets when talking in units. As it’s probably a little unfair for people where $20 is only 0.2 or 0.4 etc. Robbo posts some great stuff anyways and congrats on the massive night. Hope you enjoy yourself a nice steak or top shelf drink tonight!

Anyways, I’ll post some tips, because I’m pretty sure that’s what this forum is for.

Gold Coast vs St Kilda
2.5u - St Kilda SU - $2.04 - SB
Still keen on the Saints, last week showed just how important Ryder is for their structure. A real season turning performance for them last week. A lot of talent on the roster and still big final aspirations. Will be nice dry conditions today that suit the way the Saints want to play.

Giants vs Essendon
3u - Greene/Himmelberg 5+ goals combined - $1.80 - TAB
2u - Greene/Himmelberg 6+ goals combined - $2.50 - TAB
Sportsbet only rating 5+ a $1.57 chance. Essendon giving up the third most marks inside 50 in the comp and these two leading the way for the giants in that stat and goals. Essendon off the back of copping 123 points to Carlton, 85 to the rough pies, 102 in the wet to the lions and have actually conceded the second most points in the comp. Could be a day out for one of these two.

2u - McGrath under 26.5 disposals - $1.80 - Ladbrokes
Only gone over on bigger, wider grounds. Giants been back to their restrictive selves in recent weeks. Should be tough for McGrath out in the wing today.

2.5u - Merrett under 32.5 disposals - $1.70 - TopSport
Gone over 3/7. As previously mentioned uncontested disposals won’t come as easy as usual today for Merrett. Teams have also found success when limiting him getting the ball. GWS aren’t afraid to send players on run with roles, so there is potential for him to cop attention throughout the day.

North Melbourne vs Collingwood
2.5u - Grundy AGS - $1.80 - Ladbrokes
Still a good price to take on Grundy. Has kicked goals in each of his last three matches. Cameron in the side has allowed him to free up in the forward line a bit more. Rucks been hitting the scoreboard against North and a good chance he gets rested forward if the game blows out too.

2u - Noble 20+ disposals - $2.35 - TAB
Seeing improvement in his game playing off half back. 4/7 on this one this year. Half backers doing well on north this year.

4u - Cunnington over 26.5 disposals - $1.95 Ladbrokes
In short, Collingwood are a rabble and giving up big numbers. Cunnington has eased himself into the season after spending more time forward in his first two games. Since then he has cleared this one 3/3.

Melbourne vs Sydney
4u - Melbourne -5.5 (last quarter only) - $1.90 - Ladbrokes
Sydney off a tough physically taxing game in the wet up against Melbourne who had a cruisy performance against North. Melbourne are the fittest team in the comp and have won every last quarter so far this season. The dees to run away with it late.

Port Adelaide vs Crows
3u - Adelaide under 68.5 points - $1.85 - TAB
Toughest match up for the year for the crows and also their first night game of the year. Scores for the crows have probably been slightly inflated due to playing in perfect weather during the middle of the day each week. Will happily take this bet against their toughest defensive opponent to date in some favourable conditions.

I love your posts ohhh ok

 

[Sausage Legs]

I live on the east side a few kms from AO.

No rain.

Thats not to say its not raining in other parts of Adelaide.

Morphetville

 

[Ohh Ok]

Have I missed something on Walters? Seen a few big bets on him

 

[NYRB]

Any views on the Showdown Medal?

I don't watch Showdowns as much as I used to..............any idea who the voting panel for tonights game is?

WINES Oliver (PA)	4.5
BOAK Travis (PA)	5.5
AMON Karl (PA)	13
SLOANE Rory (ADE)	15
HOUSTON Dan (PA)	15
GRAY Robbie (PA)	15
ALIIR Aliir (PA)	15
WALKER Taylor (ADE)	17
LAIRD Rory (ADE)	17
ROZEE Connor (PA)	21
DIXON Charlie (PA)	21
KEAYS Ben (ADE)	26
SMITH Brodie (ADE)	34
SEEDSMAN Paul (ADE)	34
P-PEPPER Sam (PA)	34
MOTLOP Steven (PA)	34
FANTASIA Orazio (PA)	34
BURTON Ryan (PA)	34
B-JONES Darcy (PA)	34
OBRIEN Reilly (ADE)	41
JONAS Thomas (PA)	41
GEORGIADES Mitch (PA)	41
SHOLL Lachlan (ADE)	51
MARSHALL Todd (PA)	51
LYCETT Scott (PA)	51
HARTLETT Hamish (PA)	51
DREW Willem (PA)	51
THILTHORPE Riley (ADE)	67
HAMILL Will (ADE)	67
FARRELL Kane (PA)	67
BROWN Luke (ADE)	67
MACKAY David (ADE)	81
KELLY Jake (ADE)	81
FOGARTY Darcy (ADE)	81
DOEDEE Tom (ADE)	81
CLUREY Tom (PA)	81
SCHOENBERG Harry (ADE)	101
ROWE James (ADE)	101
HIMMELBERG Elliott (ADE)	101
BERGMAN Miles (PA)	101
MURPHY Lachlan (ADE)	151
MCHENRY Ned (ADE)	151
BUTTS Jordon (ADE)	151
BERRY Sam (ADE)	201

 

[GROTTO]

You have sold me on the Noble bet.

He is going up against his dad too, which will be extra motivation for him to do well.


20+ Disposals = $2.30 at Sportsbet

I know the stats don't support Noble getting 25+ but also had a play on that as well at odds of $9.00



And one hail mary,

Noble 25+ Disposals
Michael Walters 25+ Disposals

at odds of 189.00

You would hope his Dad does whats best for his son and put a potato on him and allow him to rack up possessions.

 

[GROTTO]

Morphetville

lol As you post, here it comes.

Also FMD another poster on here from Adelaide I just realised. I seriously question the demographics of the average punter.

 

[Ohh Ok]

Any views on the Showdown Medal?

I don't watch Showdowns as much as I used to..............any idea who the voting panel for tonights game is?

WINES Oliver (PA)	4.5
BOAK Travis (PA)	5.5
AMON Karl (PA)	13
SLOANE Rory (ADE)	15
HOUSTON Dan (PA)	15
GRAY Robbie (PA)	15
ALIIR Aliir (PA)	15
WALKER Taylor (ADE)	17
LAIRD Rory (ADE)	17
ROZEE Connor (PA)	21
DIXON Charlie (PA)	21
KEAYS Ben (ADE)	26
SMITH Brodie (ADE)	34
SEEDSMAN Paul (ADE)	34
P-PEPPER Sam (PA)	34
MOTLOP Steven (PA)	34
FANTASIA Orazio (PA)	34
BURTON Ryan (PA)	34
B-JONES Darcy (PA)	34
OBRIEN Reilly (ADE)	41
JONAS Thomas (PA)	41
GEORGIADES Mitch (PA)	41
SHOLL Lachlan (ADE)	51
MARSHALL Todd (PA)	51
LYCETT Scott (PA)	51
HARTLETT Hamish (PA)	51
DREW Willem (PA)	51
THILTHORPE Riley (ADE)	67
HAMILL Will (ADE)	67
FARRELL Kane (PA)	67
BROWN Luke (ADE)	67
MACKAY David (ADE)	81
KELLY Jake (ADE)	81
FOGARTY Darcy (ADE)	81
DOEDEE Tom (ADE)	81
CLUREY Tom (PA)	81
SCHOENBERG Harry (ADE)	101
ROWE James (ADE)	101
HIMMELBERG Elliott (ADE)	101
BERGMAN Miles (PA)	101
MURPHY Lachlan (ADE)	151
MCHENRY Ned (ADE)	151
BUTTS Jordon (ADE)	151
BERRY Sam (ADE)	201

Robbie Gray is unfortunately the showdown king

 

[NYRB]

Just looking at past winners, showdown seems like the ANZAC day medal winner more a midfield medal winner type, in comparison to the Western Derby where a backman/forward has a better chance of winning it.


Anyway based on those odds, Fantasia @ 34, Georgiades @ 41 look a bit of value. None of the Port midfielders appeal for me at those prices.

 

[NYRB]

Last years Showdown voting panel: Tredrea, Blight, Liz Walsh (Advertiser), Jameson, Cassisi, Sodestrom

Having at least 6 judges makes it less bias too, maybe ANZAC /Western Derby medal votes can take a leaf out of the Showdown book.

 

[GROTTO]

Robbie Gray is unfortunately the showdown king

Has a player from the losing team eve won the medal before? I cant recall?

Not to mention those odds for Crows players are very poor.

 

[GROTTO]

Last years Showdown voting panel: Tredrea, Blight, Liz Walsh (Advertiser), Jameson, Cassisi, Sodestrom

Having at least 6 judges makes it less bias too, maybe ANZAC /Western Derby medal votes can take a leaf out of the Showdown book.

Lycett is not bad at 51 given that Sauce Jacobs won it a few times.

 

[Sausage Legs]

Just looking at past winners, showdown seems like the ANZAC day medal winner more a midfield medal winner type, in comparison to the Western Derby where a backman/forward has a better chance of winning it.


Anyway based on those odds, Fantasia @ 34, Georgiades @ 41 look a bit of value. None of the Port midfielders appeal for me at those prices.

Yeah don't mind Jonas at 41s, if it's not too heavy orazio could relish the condish. But yeah as mentioned above it's Robbie's day

 

[GROTTO]

Yeah don't mind Jonas at 41s, if it's not too heavy orazio could relish the condish. But yeah as mentioned above it's Robbie's day

Boak, Wines or Gray. You probably couldnt go too wrong with one of those three winning it.

This should be a clear one sided contest.