AFL 2021 Brownlow Medal (any results after no posting is automatic card)

[balmainforever]

 

[TheJanuaryMan]

G'day all

It's that time of the year again. Ready for another year of analysis and chat about the Brownlow. Let's see if the good run can continue for those here.

Pre-season stable for me:

Patrick Cripps

9

Patrick Cripps

Age

29

Ht

195cm

Wt

93kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

25.9

5star

K

9.8

4star

HB

16.1

5star

M

3.4

3star

T

5.8

5star

CL

7.4

5star

D

21.0

5star

K

10.1

4star

HB

10.9

5star

M

2.5

3star

T

3.8

4star

CL

6.3

5star

D

12.6

4star

K

4.8

2star

HB

7.8

5star

M

2.0

3star

T

3.2

5star

CL

1.4

4star

: $7
Marcus Bontempelli

4

Marcus Bontempelli

Age

29

Ht

194cm

Wt

96kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

22.5

5star

K

12.3

5star

HB

10.3

5star

M

3.6

4star

T

4.8

5star

CL

4.4

5star

D

18.4

4star

K

9.7

4star

HB

8.8

4star

M

2.6

3star

T

4.1

5star

CL

4.0

5star

D

12.0

3star

K

5.8

3star

HB

6.2

4star

M

2.0

3star

T

3.8

5star

CL

1.8

4star

: $11
Zac Merrett: $26
Toby Greene

4

Toby Greene

Age

31

Ht

182cm

Wt

85kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

22.7

5star

K

12.5

5star

HB

10.2

5star

M

4.8

5star

T

3.0

5star

G

1.2

4star

D

17.5

4star

K

9.5

4star

HB

8.0

4star

M

4.8

4star

T

1.0

2star

G

2.3

5star

D

26.6

5star

K

12.4

5star

HB

14.2

5star

M

4.8

5star

T

3.6

5star

G

0.0

1star

: $81
Jy Simpkin

12

Jy Simpkin

Age

26

Ht

183cm

Wt

77kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

16.0

4star

K

7.9

3star

HB

8.1

5star

M

2.4

3star

T

3.3

5star

CL

2.9

4star

D

20.6

5star

K

11.0

4star

HB

9.6

5star

M

2.0

2star

T

3.5

4star

CL

5.5

5star

D

10.0

3star

K

5.6

3star

HB

4.4

4star

M

2.8

3star

T

2.4

4star

CL

0.2

2star

: $101

The lay opportunity: Matt Rowell

18

Matt Rowell

Age

23

Ht

180cm

Wt

82kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

17.4

4star

K

7.6

3star

HB

9.8

5star

M

0.8

1star

T

5.2

5star

CL

3.8

5star

D

17.4

4star

K

7.6

3star

HB

9.8

5star

M

0.8

1star

T

5.2

5star

CL

3.8

5star

D

17.4

5star

K

7.6

3star

HB

9.8

5star

M

0.8

1star

T

5.2

5star

CL

3.8

5star

at $17. No player has won the Medal in the modern era after playing five career games before their winning season. Too many question marks for this one for me.

Post away folks.

 

[burge13]

Taranto $101 is my roughie

 

[shepherdodin]

Thanks for making the thread TJM! Keen for this year!

Of those odds you posted I like Merrett right now.

Luke Parker

26

Luke Parker

Age

32

Ht

183cm

Wt

88kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

24.2

5star

K

12.6

5star

HB

11.6

5star

M

3.8

4star

T

5.6

5star

CL

5.8

5star

D

22.1

5star

K

12.3

5star

HB

9.9

5star

M

3.9

4star

T

5.0

5star

CL

5.5

5star

D

21.2

5star

K

11.4

4star

HB

9.8

5star

M

2.0

3star

T

8.0

5star

CL

5.2

5star

$67 I don't mind, though I don't necessarily think he'll win it. Even though the swans wont finish in the 8. They're a team on the rise and he pretty much carries them amongst the kids. Did very well last year for a bottom 4 side. Kennedy I don't think will take many votes off him, he's very good but past his prime these days. Heeney being back from injury the only real threat to take votes away.

My tip is Boak will have another good year, and Petracca/Steele all in with a real shot against Neale. I tip Bont to have a stellar year, if the pre-season is anything at all to go by. Treloar and Macrae will be playing somewhat similar roles I feel and take votes off each other.

The team multis are up on TAB already. Tempted to throw away some money on:

Neale
Cripps
Merrett
Fyfe
Mitchell
Boak
Dusty
Steele
Parker
Bont

@ 318.86 for the lolz.

Though I don't know if I'm silly enough to throw away cash even before a ball is bounced.

 

[LionsOrDieTrion]

Doing my own count this year and will be highly active. Let's go!

First bet: Team Votes Multi - Cripps/Martin/Petracca/Merrett/Neale/Boak/Steele/Rowell @77.73

 

[miracleman]

Jack Steele

9

Jack Steele

Age

29

Ht

187cm

Wt

90kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

20.9

5star

K

8.7

3star

HB

12.2

5star

M

3.7

4star

T

6.8

5star

CL

3.6

5star

D

21.3

5star

K

10.0

4star

HB

11.3

5star

M

4.0

4star

T

5.8

5star

CL

4.6

5star

D

16.8

4star

K

5.0

2star

HB

11.8

5star

M

2.6

3star

T

6.4

5star

CL

3.6

5star

main bet
Coniglio roughie bet

 

[C_Turn]

Taranto $101 is my roughie

FYI - he's $151 on Ladbrokes

 

[burge13]

FYI - he's $151 on Ladbrokes

I'm banned from them but I'd be annoyed costing me 50 on the odds having not checked for best price

 

[jack1231]

Martin
Walsh
?

 

[LionsOrDieTrion]

Martin
Walsh
Bolton

 

[Crownlow]

Hey guys long time lurker.
Decided at brownlow time last year that i will do a live count during the season. Will try to watch all the games and post my counts -

Carlton v Richmond

Top 10 players based off machine learning since 2013s brownlow medal count -

Year

Player

Team

Round

Disposals

Goals

Hitouts

Tackles

Clearances

Frees

Contested Posessions

Contested Marks

Goal Assits

Margin

Votes

2021​

Martin, Dustin

Richmond

1​

8.20%​

13.30%​

-

9.30%​

12.50%​

6.70%​

9.60%​

28.60%​

36.40%​

41.70%​

1.981​

2021​

Bolton, Shai

Richmond

1​

6.60%​

6.70%​

-

2.30%​

22.50%​

-6.70%​

9.60%​

-

9.10%​

41.70%​

0.924​

2021​

Prestia, Dion

Richmond

1​

6.60%​

-

-

9.30%​

22.50%​

6.70%​

8.20%​

-

-

41.70%​

0.689​

2021​

Riewoldt, Jack

Richmond

1​

2.70%​

26.70%​

-

11.60%​

-

-

4.10%​

14.30%​

-

41.70%​

0.399​

2021​

Graham, Jack

Richmond

1​

8.80%​

-

-

7.00%​

12.50%​

6.70%​

5.50%​

-

9.10%​

41.70%​

0.206​

2021​

Curnow, Edward

Carlton

1​

7.70%​

-

-

2.60%​

20.60%​

-4.00%​

10.10%​

10.00%​

10.00%​

-41.70%​

0.053​

2021​

Walsh, Sam

Carlton

1​

8.20%​

-

-

7.90%​

17.60%​

-8.00%​

9.40%​

-

10.00%​

-41.70%​

-0.004​

2021​

Cripps, Patrick

Carlton

1​

7.40%​

-

-

10.50%​

14.70%​

8.00%​

9.40%​

-

10.00%​

-41.70%​

-0.004​

2021​

Edwards, Shane

Richmond

1​

7.20%​

-

-

7.00%​

7.50%​

6.70%​

8.20%​

-

9.10%​

41.70%​

-0.006​

2021​

Saad, Adam

Carlton

1​

6.60%​

-

-

10.50%​

5.90%​

8.00%​

7.20%​

10.00%​

-

-41.70%​

-0.016​

This is based off a 25 point losing margin - but the game was much closer with a blow out it the last 5 minutes - if i null the margin

Year

Player

Team

Round

Disposals

Goals

Hitouts

Tackles

Clearances

Frees

Contested Posessions

Contested Marks

Goal Assits

Margin

Votes

2021​

Martin, Dustin

Richmond

1​

8.20%​

13.30%​

-

9.30%​

12.50%​

6.70%​

9.60%​

28.60%​

36.40%​

-

1.226​

2021​

Bolton, Shai

Richmond

1​

6.60%​

6.70%​

-

2.30%​

22.50%​

-6.70%​

9.60%​

-

9.10%​

-

0.573​

2021​

Curnow, Edward

Carlton

1​

7.70%​

-

-

2.60%​

20.60%​

-4.00%​

10.10%​

10.00%​

10.00%​

-

0.505​

2021​

Prestia, Dion

Richmond

1​

6.60%​

-

-

9.30%​

22.50%​

6.70%​

8.20%​

-

-

-

0.44​

2021​

Cripps, Patrick

Carlton

1​

7.40%​

-

-

10.50%​

14.70%​

8.00%​

9.40%​

-

10.00%​

-

0.339​

2021​

Walsh, Sam

Carlton

1​

8.20%​

-

-

7.90%​

17.60%​

-8.00%​

9.40%​

-

10.00%​

-

0.313​

2021​

Graham, Jack

Richmond

1​

8.80%​

-

-

7.00%​

12.50%​

6.70%​

5.50%​

-

9.10%​

-

-0.002​

2021​

Saad, Adam

Carlton

1​

6.60%​

-

-

10.50%​

5.90%​

8.00%​

7.20%​

10.00%​

-

-

-0.01​

2021​

Riewoldt, Jack

Richmond

1​

2.70%​

26.70%​

-

11.60%​

-

-

4.10%​

14.30%​

-

-

-0.011​

2021​

Edwards, Shane

Richmond

1​

7.20%​

-

-

7.00%​

7.50%​

6.70%​

8.20%​

-

9.10%​

-

-0.013​

My Votes

3. D. Martin
2. S. Walsh
1. S. Bolton

 

[NonPhixion]

3. Martin
2. Walsh
1. Prestia

 

[JuniorWatch]

FYI - he's $151 on Ladbrokes

$160 Betfair (Taranto)

3. Martin
2. Walsh
1. Graham

 

[Peterjv]

Hi All,

Keen to contribute this year and will try to watch all games live (or replay within a few days).

RICvCAR:
3. Martin
2. Walsh
1. Bolton

 

[burge13]

I'm a little bit surprised by the Bolton love. Dusty and Walsh clear 3 & 2, Cripps, Short, Graham, Prestia, Bolton all fighting for 1.

 

[AFLFootyChick]

I'm a little bit surprised by the Bolton love. Dusty and Walsh clear 3 & 2, Cripps, Short, Graham, Prestia, Bolton all fighting for 1.

Riewoldt kicked 4 goals. I think he gets the 1 vote.

3 - Martin
2 - Walsh
1 - Riewoldt

 

[MRCB12]

3. Martin
2. Walsh
1. Graham

Settled with Graham as his big last quarter fresh in umpires minds. High disposal count. But can see a few taking the 1. Bolton and Riewoldt especially

 

[benji21]

Thinking
3. Smith (had a bit of an altercation with the ump though)
2. Macrae
0.5 Moore
0.5 Seriously a raffle if its a dogs player

 

[onthehill24]

Thinking
3. Smith (had a bit of an altercation with the ump though)
2. Macrae
0.5 Moore
0.5 Seriously a raffle if its a dogs player

Yep probably right

 

[krayfesh]

Blues/Richmond is a raffle for the one. I try and go by who was the most eye catching and I keep coming back to Bolton.

Dogs/Pies is Smith, Macrae and Bont for me. Bont is hard to ignore.

 

[NonPhixion]

3. Sheed
2. Swallow
1. Raffle

 

[benji21]

3. Sheed
2. Swallow
1. Raffle

Will be a tough one, reckon Kelly could be in the votes as well as bowes.

 

[LionsOrDieTrion]

 

[seppo_222]

Does anyone have an excel S/s for 2021 they could attach?

 

[shepherdodin]

Does anyone have an excel S/s for 2021 they could attach?

I need to update the players list in mine for this year, will post when I get around to it.

 

[dontlimitme]

after watching round 1 and taking into account last years votes, think Boak is the best bet. Port going to win a lot of games this year