AFL 2021 Brownlow Medal (any results after no posting is automatic card)

[balmainforever]

 

[BuddysBiggestFan]

nice speech by wines, seems like a good bloke

A little bit better at speaking than Shae Bolton

 

[LukeHodge15]

Macrae missing top 20 is crae crae

Cost me squillions

 

[toxic]

Somebody explain him not polling in round 6

No far king idea

 

[Ah12]

A little bit better at speaking than Shae Bolton

Crazy difference when your not coked off your head

 

[DT_35]

Are players allowed to bet on the Brownlow? Lol Wines literally just threw them under the bus if they aren’t

 

[Prochard123]

Wheres the Bloke who is streaking the Granny because Walsh got 30


NEVER doubt TJM

He also had Petracca on 31 votes and 2nd (landed on 23 and 10th), he was 1/2 - 50% for me.

 

[awesome wells]

Josh Kelly = one million dollar spud

 

[dontlimitme]

No far king idea

View attachment 1240389

how the **** do you not poll in that game and win by 39 points LOL hopper gets 1 LOL umps

 

[the_big_sav]

petrecca needed 2 more
parker needed 2 more
kelly a few more
steele needed 2 more

 

[ShaunWDT]

Wonder how much SB cleaned up on team votes multis, cant be many people that won those ones.

 

[freo_leo29]

He also had Petracca on 31 votes and 2nd (landed on 23 and 10th), he was 1/2 - 50% for me.

Everyone had Trac high, TJM was one of the only counts that polled Walsh that high

not gonna get everything right but people laying into him for Walsh sure look silly now, People were also laying into him for Steele but his polling proved more accurate to the actual count

 

[DT_35]

Also f*** you Touk Touk

 

[Ohh Ok]

Here is my current roll over plan using topsport

View attachment 1239880

These were bank man cheers!

 

[BuddysBiggestFan]

Touk deserved a lot more votes….not much more he can do

J. Kelly on the other hand….don’t know what I was thinking

 

[BuddysBiggestFan]

Howe, $1.25 favorite in rd 22, doesn’t get a vote, Mitchell 3….

 

[Jcpdragonx]

Macrae and Parker the killers for me

Mills was better than Parker but missed game 3.5 games and played sore near the end, still got up.

Macrae is all ground and outside ball where’s wines, Bont and Oliver do a bit more in the air, plus vote stealers everywhere. Oh well

 

[Stevi_Tigers]

umps definitely seem to have a bias towards inside mids

 

[Diesel_Handball]

Parker and Kelly really hurt. I didn’t expect Ollie to poll that high. I had him sub 30.

 

[mouncey2franklin]

Pleasantly surprised by how quiet this thread is atm, I was expecting dozens of 'Wines yeah money' posts within 10 minutes of the count finishing.

 

[balmainforever]

Adel: Laird 16 (Keays 11)
Bris: Lyons 23
Carl: Walsh 30 (McKay 8)
Coll: Crisp 11
Ess: Parish 26
Frem: Mundy 20
Geel: Guthrie 18
GCst: Miller 17 (Anderson 8)
GWS: Hopper,Taranto 15
Haw: Mitchell 25 (O'Meara 11)
Melb: Oliver 31
NMelb: Cunnington 15
PAdel: Wines 36 (Boak 25)
Rich: Martin 11
StK: Steele 26 (Dunstan 11)
Syd: Mills 18
WCst: Sheed 13
WBull: Bontempelli 33

 

[dontlimitme]

Pleasantly surprised by how quiet this thread is atm, I was expecting dozens of 'Wines yeah money' posts within 10 minutes of the count finishing.

got him at 40's earlier in the season

 

[checkraiseulite]

Parker and Kelly really hurt. I didn’t expect Ollie to poll that high. I had him sub 30.

you probably know something about footy

******* count

 

[BuddysBiggestFan]

What big odds 3 vote getters got up?

Nankervis Rd 5 $21, think it started at $51

 

[bisazc887]

Miller top 10 and J Kelly top 20 f’ed a lot of multis

Phked me for a fortune

 

[HTPunter]

At this stage I'm looking at

McKay without Walsh $2.50 on Lads (going against what I do normally and also going with E.Curnow $2.60 SB for real odds of $1.275 - have high confidence that these guys had the standout vote games, Cripps & Weitering will find it tougher to poll the 6+ needed).
2U on each

2U Merrett most votes Essendon $2.20

Billings most without Steele $10 - got him on 8, best case 9, Dunstan on 7, best case 10...fingers crossed it's not best case for Dunstan.
0.4U Billings @ $10

Anderson without Miller $1.40
O'Meara without Mitchell $1.65
Amon without Boak/Wines $1.20
Martin most votes Richmond $1.15
Parker most votes Sydney $1.50
2U @ $5.15

Small amounts (0.2U) on Fyfe most votes Freo ($21) and Dangerfield most votes Geelong ($17) - I have them 4 and 3 behind their leaders respectively but both have too good a polling history to ignore at those odds. If Mundy and Guthrie only poll 12ish (3 votes under expected) they are both in with a good shot, at the least could tie.

Have Treloar, Smith & Libba all on 6 - Libba has a poor history and I think Smith is the most likely to standout. However, having Treloar on the same votes means I'll take him at $7 too. Libba the most likely to underpoll.
0.5U Smith @ $3
0.3U Treloar @ $7

I also have Taranto 13 Hopper 12 Kelly 11 at GWS, and the odds are with Hopper ($9) and Taranto ($6), but I always find GWS really hard to poll. Kelly looks smooth too so he is a good poller, whereas Taranto is a butcher and Hopper could go the way of a favoured Priddis type attracting votes or ignored in the way of an Oliver.
0.3U Hopper @ $9
0.3U Taranto @ $6

2U Steele WIN @ $9
0.7U Boxed pick 4 Oliver/Steele/Bont/Wines @ $4
1U Oliver WIN @ $4
1U Bont WIN @ $3.75
0.3U Dusty leading after round 5 @ $7.50
2U Oliver to poll in most games @ $2.10

17.2u total outlay

Probably spend a further 13 on 3 vote games when they come out.
Eyeing off:
Billings round 1, Parfitt round 5, O'Meara round 6, Ah Chee round 8 (too many mids sharing the disposals pie), Dunstan round 11, Dusty round 12, Aish round 13, Moore (Haw) round 15, Weightman round 16, S. Taylor round 21, Seedsman round 22

McKay a tick.
Hopper & Taranto a tick.
Smith a tick.
Seedsman a tick.
Billings, Merrett dreadful.
Final tally dreadful. Way underpolled WINES, Bont, Walsh. Always knew Oliver had a range, impossible to hit him and Petracca bang on I feel.
Steele not far off my poll, just that Wines, Bont, Walsh streaked ahead by 5-10.
3 vote value games dreadful, although made up for it with rollovers.
Fyfe and Danger calls dreadful.

Pissed about Parker but will be one of many in that boat. If Wicks had ****ing gone as he should in round 3 it would be different.

Brandon Ah Chee $3 - v Hawthorn with 17 dis, 4 goals

Cale Hooker $2 - round 3 v St Kilda, lots of comp (Merrett, Parish, Ridley, Smith, Stringer, even Steele - but I'd say 5 goals in modern footy would get a vote >50% of the time, so will think about these odds, maybe if they float out to $2.10-2.20)

Brent Daniels $ 2 - v Essendon, Whitfield BOG, Green should get 2 but Daniels was very good this game and eye catching speed, including the match winner.
Merrett and Parish quiet.

Harry Schoenberg $1.83 - 1 v North in round 23 (Keays/Laird split the 3/2), potentially votes in the 2nd Showdown which was a low scoring, dour affair

Mabior Chol $1.67 is also good value. Weightman too.

4/6 - Schoenberg & Daniels missed. Considering the likes of Wicks, Fantasia, Powell all under $1.25 didn't poll, not unhappy

Don't think Seedsman should be $5 for round 22. Fritsch kicked some cheap ones late yes, and it'd be easy to give him the 3 but I still think the umps are capable of context and see that Seedsman had a better 4Q effort

Nailed this one

It's tight but I'm going against Libba in the Dogs count.

$2.20 for a guy who has polled 8 total votes since 2014. His best year being 2014 with 14 votes, in a bottom 5 side and probably stood out in the eye test.

As good and as important he is to the 2021 Dogs side, there's far more competition for votes this year and he loses the eye test battle.

Sure, he could go the way of a Priddis type in terms of attracting votes, but you've got the obvious standouts in Bont & Macrae, plus I'd say Smith, Treloar, Bruce are obvious standouts to get some decent votes, while Weightman, Dale & Naughton are also eye-catching in ways.

He's $2.20 without Bont/Macrae

I'd say
3 v North round 16 (although I'm on Weightman for value here - eye catching performance, 4 goals and 2 goal assists, was all over North early and don't think Libba dominated to the point of being unable to ignore him)

Maybe 2 or 1 v Carlton round 8. Bont the 3, Bruce could get the 2 for 5 goals. I've gone Bruce.

1 in round 9 v Port.

I don't have him polling round 3 (3. Bruce 2. Treloar 1. Raffle between Macrae, Daniel, Dunkley but Libba after those 3), 6 (3. Macrae, 2. Treloar, 1. Dunkley), 10 (3. Bont 2. Dale 1. Naughton)

5 total for Libba, 3-6 his range. I could genuinely see 2 for the North game and 1 for the Blues game.

Meanwhile I've got Smith 3 round 1 (clear, standout, unable to ignore), 1 v Adelaide round 20 (possibility of 2 ahead of Dale), clear 2 round 15 v West Coast. 6 for Smith, 6-7 being his range.

Treloar 2 in round 3 & 6 (potential 3 in round 6), 1 in 4, 1 in 9. 6 for Treloar, range being 4-6.

Treloar voting history not bad, Smith 7 last year and only going to get more votes - I personally think he's more Dylan Shiel in terms of his bomb it long and hope than Dusty despite the finals goals, but trying to think like the umps.

Very happy with this. Cleaned up.