AFL 2021 Brownlow Medal (any results after no posting is automatic card)

[balmainforever]

 

[Sausage Legs]

Here’s a tip for you using the data. Something for you to look back on

Won't be winning much with that account balance

 

[Analysis Paralysis]

I was also wondering if anyone is interested in teaming up to rewatch all the games and come up with an aggregated vote count? A single person watching 200+ games is probably too labour intensive.

But if we can get 20 people reviewing 10 games each, I think that's very manageable and more accurate (less fatigue).

Anyone interested?

Just ask NYRB if he needs any help reviewing games!

Bloke is a machine.

 

[Prochard123]

Just ask NYRB if he needs any help reviewing games!

Bloke is a machine.

I was just thinking we all have our biases and rate certain types of players more than we should. And with more people we can remove that and get a more accurate estimate of votes!

 

[Billionaire Panda]

Here’s a tip for you using the data. Something for you to look back on

LMAO, literally a bet that's consistent with every predictor I've ever seen.

Not sure if you've followed some of the guys on here but you'll definitely find someone that's taken that exact bet at 50:1 on here when it was actually value and brought it in too much for you to make a decent return now

 

[Mrose45]

LMAO, literally a bet that's consistent with every predictor I've ever seen.

Not sure if you've followed some of the guys on here but you'll definitely find someone that's taken that exact bet at 50:1 on here when it was actually value and brought it in too much for you to make a decent return now

Congratulations to them but how many times does that work out for that punter each year? It’s about making smart calculated decisions. And you can’t make them until the season has played out. Only takes 1 suspension to ruin that whole multi.

 

[Mrose45]

O

I was just thinking we all have our biases and rate certain types of players more than we should. And with more people we can remove that and get a more accurate estimate of votes!

Oh man you have actually described what downlowonthebrownlow already does

 

[offthebusgus]

Congratulations to them but how many times does that work out for that punter each year? It’s about making smart calculated decisions. And you can’t make them until the season has played out. Only takes 1 suspension to ruin that whole multi.

Disagree, ineligible is included, so suspension doesn't mean a hell of a lot.

 

[Analysis Paralysis]

I was just thinking we all have our biases and rate certain types of players more than we should. And with more people we can remove that and get a more accurate estimate of votes!

You are right about the removal of bias by adding more people. There are people who go around aggregating counts (AFL, BetFair, etc) - they are doing what you are suggesting.

 

[Billionaire Panda]

Congratulations to them but how many times does that work out for that punter each year? It’s about making smart calculated decisions. And you can’t make them until the season has played out. Only takes 1 suspension to ruin that whole multi.

So what were the ROI stats you guys are claiming over the past 20 years with some sort of proof? Sorry if I missed you posting that...

 

[Prochard123]

O

Oh man you have actually described what downlowonthebrownlow already does

yeah and the difference is that we don't charge $40 for it

 

[Mrose45]

yeah and the difference is that we don't charge $40 for it

Instead you are willing to spend 200 hours watching game tape

 

[Prochard123]

Instead you are willing to spend 200 hours watching game tape

Are you suggesting that you DIDNT actually watch the game tapes, even more reason to not buy your guide LOL

Now I feel bad for the other people you supposedly work with (and the time they spent), because you are doing a great job at getting people to NOT buy your product haha

 

[NYRB]

O

Oh man you have actually described what downlowonthebrownlow already does

since the 2020 season is over, would you be willing to release your spreadsheet for all to see from last year? It would be good to see how you did last year

 

[Mrose45]

Are you suggesting that you DIDNT actually watch the game tapes, even more reason to not buy your guide LOL

Now I feel bad for the other people you supposedly work with (and the time they spent), because you are doing a great job at getting people to NOT buy your product haha

I’m saying you are willing to go back and do that all over again when it has already been done for you.
Let me put it this way. Would you work at your job for 6 months and do it for free? No you wouldn’t. Because you provide your work with a service. Just as we have done here with the package. Many months of work and planning has gone into this. A service that is provided to the person that wants a better understanding of the count. Good luck all

 

[Mrose45]

Sure

since the 2020 season is over, would you be willing to release your spreadsheet for all to see from last year? It would be good to see how you did last year

sure

 

[TheJanuaryMan]

Congratulations to them but how many times does that work out for that punter each year? It’s about making smart calculated decisions. And you can’t make them until the season has played out. Only takes 1 suspension to ruin that whole multi.

I thought for a while about whether to jump in or not as have been reading with interest but I haven't seen you post on here until just before last year's count and now.

Yet you expect people on this board - many of whom have posted their counts on BF for years, either weekly or during the year - to happily part with their $ for a system where the ROI still remains a mystery (when I and others have asked it) and a few random ones from last year are thrown as 'evidence".

One thing I've always learned is when it comes to money, don't treat people like fools.

 

[Leeroy Brown 15]

Sure

sure

You said you have 15 counts in your leaderboard this year. Can I ask, how many are actually personal/private counts from your “team” and how many are publicly available counts available to everyone for free? From this leaderboard last year I can see that there were 8 counts in total with 5 of those counts being publicly available to anyone for free (Betfair, Beforeyoubet and the lads from the Brownlow bar podcast). Kinda misleading how majority of the counts in your leaderboard are other peoples work available for free which you are then selling as your own “leaderboard”

 

[Mrose45]

Sure

sure

In terms of the actual 2020 spreadsheet. Here it is

I thought for a while about whether to jump in or not as have been reading with interest but I haven't seen you post on here until just before last year's count and now.

Yet you expect people on this board - many of whom have posted their counts on BF for years, either weekly or during the year - to happily part with their $ for a system where the ROI still remains a mystery (when I and others have asked it) and a few random ones from last year are thrown as 'evidence".

One thing I've always learned is when it comes to money, don't treat people like fools.

thats a fair enough question. I’m not in charge of that side of stuff. But it will be documented and I would surely be able to get it tomorrow from our numbers guy

 

[Billionaire Panda]

You said you have 15 counts in your leaderboard this year. Can I ask, how many are actually personal/private counts from your “team” and how many are publicly available counts available to everyone for free? From this leaderboard last year I can see that there were 8 counts in total with 5 of those counts being publicly available to anyone for free (Betfair, Beforeyoubet and the lads from the Brownlow bar podcast). Kinda misleading how majority of the counts in your leaderboard are other peoples work available for free which you are then selling as your own “leaderboard”

Literally gives the impression they're taking our counts and other free ones and then trying to sell them back to us

 

[Mrose45]

You said you have 15 counts in your leaderboard this year. Can I ask, how many are actually personal/private counts from your “team” and how many are publicly available counts available to everyone for free? From this leaderboard last year I can see that there were 8 counts in total with 5 of those counts being publicly available to anyone for free (Betfair, Beforeyoubet and the lads from the Brownlow bar podcast). Kinda misleading how majority of the counts in your leaderboard are other peoples work available for free which you are then selling as your own “leaderboard”

Absolutely there is free ones on there. But we also have 8 of our own. More data = more accuracy technically

 

[Leeroy Brown 15]

Literally gives the impression they're taking our counts and other free ones and then trying to sell them back to us

Come to think of it there have been a few posters on here PM’ing offering $$$ for counts

 

[dontlimitme]

if Ohhh Ok did a brownlow count i would write him a blank cheque

 

[offthebusgus]

How about we get a few of us to go and watch 2020's games. Since there is only 153 it will be easier and we can award the votes and see how accurate they were. 16 minute quarters too, we wouldn't need that much man power to get through it all. Then we can watch the 198 for this season with more confidence.

 

[TheJanuaryMan]

In terms of the actual 2020 spreadsheet. Here it is

thats a fair enough question. I’m not in charge of that side of stuff. But it will be documented and I would surely be able to get it tomorrow from our numbers guy

The suggestion that you (or your backers) need 24 hours to answer this should tell many all they need to read.

 

[Mrose45]

The suggestion that you (or your backers) need 24 hours to answer this should tell many all they need to read.

It’s 11:48pm man. What would you like me to do? Wake the guy up who has that information. We have had 4 purchases today so far. So it looks like a couple have gone ahead with it. Maybe they can let you all know how extensive the spreadsheet looks.