AFL 2021 Brownlow Medal (any results after no posting is automatic card)

[balmainforever]

 

[Prochard123]

Fair enuf, Not everyone likes free money

Could you become my bookie?

What do you have Parker on?

And which rounds/how many votes do you have him polling?

 

[invisible_]

Value identified in to poll a vote markets

Cumming at $2.75 (chances to poll in rd 21, 22)
Perryman $3.40 (19)
Mumford $3.40 (5)
Ben Ainsworth

9

Ben Ainsworth

Age

26

Ht

178cm

Wt

77kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

14.1

4star

K

8.1

3star

HB

6.1

4star

M

3.5

4star

T

2.7

4star

CL

1.3

3star

D

12.8

3star

K

8.3

3star

HB

4.5

3star

M

4.0

4star

T

2.3

3star

CL

0.3

2star

D

13.6

4star

K

6.8

3star

HB

6.8

5star

M

3.8

4star

T

3.4

5star

CL

0.8

3star

$2.75 (16, maybe 6)
Draper $2.50 (14)
Viney $2.30 (4, 18, 3)
Hurn $2.20 (1, maybe 13/18)
ROB as mentioned (4/19)
Ceglar $1.83 (13, maybe 21)
Fiorini $1.83 (19, maybe 21)
DBJ $1.67 (5/16)
Matt Kennedy $1.36 (18 lock)
Big O $1.17 (15/19 locks)

 

[TheRednWhite]

Poll a vote:
Koschitzke
Ziebell
T Thomas
AMT
Cumming
M Kennedy
@8.70

 

[TheRednWhite]

is the powerplay option stuffed with the "to poll a vote" market? When I powerplay a multi, the odds decrease

 

[Sausage Legs]

What do you have Parker on?

15+

 

[NonPhixion]

The other reason you don’t pay for Brownlow touts is the best odds get crunched in way faster than anyone can deliver you a bunch of picks for a service

 

[Geeves Train]

Pointsbet are $1.95 for Parker 20+, $8.00 now $5.00 on Sportsbet is a great bet, his 15+ price should be his 20+ price

 

[Geeves Train]

The other reason you don’t pay for Brownlow touts is the best odds get crunched in way faster than anyone can deliver you a bunch of picks for a service

Value isn’t in leaderboards it’s in finding the markets. Howzattttt

 

[invisible_]

Value identified in to poll a vote markets

Cumming at $2.75 (chances to poll in rd 21, 22)
Perryman $3.40 (19)
Mumford $3.40 (5)
Ben Ainsworth $2.75 (16, maybe 6)
Draper $2.50 (14)
Viney $2.30 (4, 18, 3)
Hurn $2.20 (1, maybe 13/18)
ROB as mentioned (4/19)
Ceglar $1.83 (13, maybe 21)
Fiorini $1.83 (19, maybe 21)
DBJ $1.67 (5/16)
Matt Kennedy $1.36 (18 lock)
Big O $1.17 (15/19 locks)

Nevermind

 

[Sausage Legs]

Value isn’t in leaderboards it’s in finding the markets. Howzattttt

Down leg sorry Bing

 

[FootyStar#1]

Odds are pretty rubbish. Really don’t like the single vote markets, won’t touch them.

So I guess the only markets left are the 3 vote games and H2H

 

[jajawinx]

Silvagni 1.45, Mcinerny 2.75 jump on those they will definitely poll

 

[Young Gun #6]

Silvagni 1.45, Mcinerny 2.75 jump on those they will definitely poll

That’s Justin McInerney though not Big O!

 

[jikost]

Tom Atkins

30

Tom Atkins

Age

29

Ht

180cm

Wt

86kg

Pos.

D/M

Career

Season

Last 5

D

11.5

3star

K

5.0

2star

HB

6.5

4star

M

1.4

2star

T

4.3

5star

MG

123.5

2star

D

6.5

1star

K

3.0

1star

HB

3.5

2star

M

0.8

1star

T

1.5

2star

MG

100.0

2star

D

11.6

3star

K

5.0

2star

HB

6.6

4star

M

2.0

3star

T

4.8

5star

MG

130.0

3star

$6.50. Anyone have him polling round 16?

 

[NYRB]

What do you have Parker on?

And which rounds/how many votes do you have him polling?

Reckon $1.35 or so would be fair . My values are probably way off...

 

[5 Bucks]

Tom Atkins $6.50. Anyone have him polling round 16?

Parish/Danger for the 3/2 and Hawkins with 6 hard to go past for 1.

Stringer with 25 and 3
Merrett with 36
Smith/Tuohy/Stewart/Atkins next best for Cats according to my notes so very very small chance of getting the 1

 

[5 Bucks]

If anyone is rewatching games can you have a look at round 6 - carlton v brisbane? My votes don't seem to be anything like what I've seen on other counts.

 

[Prochard123]

Reckon $1.35 or so would be fair . My values are probably way off...

Okay so in that case you must have him at 20+ votes or high teens with many games locked in as BOG/3 votes right?

Ultimately although I think it's more likely than not that Parker ends with 15+ votes, you really want a healthy margin to make it worthwhile right?

If you think $1.35 is fair (implied probability 74.07%), then to allow for any margin, you must be at least 80% sure that Parker gets 15 votes or more?

There are multiple credible sources with Parker at less than 15 votes (BYB for example). And I just had a close look, even BYB was quite generous to Parker in some games imo. I just don't think you can really be 80% or even 70% sure that Parker will have 15 votes or more.

 

[LionsOrDieTrion]

If anyone is rewatching games can you have a look at round 6 - carlton v brisbane? My votes don't seem to be anything like what I've seen on other counts.

3. Clugga
2. McKay
1. Walsh

Notes have Zorko and Lyons a chance to poll.

I wouldn’t be able to watch this game again, Eddie was petulantly barracking for Carlton all game it was sickening.

 

[LionsOrDieTrion]

Okay so in that case you must have him at 20+ votes or high teens with many games locked in as BOG/3 votes right?

Ultimately although I think it's more likely than not that Parker ends with 15+ votes, you really want a healthy margin to make it worthwhile right?

If you think $1.35 is fair (implied probability 74.07%), then to allow for any margin, you must be at least 80% sure that Parker gets 15 votes or more?

There are multiple credible sources with Parker at less than 15 votes (BYB for example). And I just had a close look, even BYB was quite generous to Parker in some games imo. I just don't think you can really be 80% or even 70% sure that Parker will have 15 votes or more.

Relax champ he will clear 20.

 

[squeaky1000]

Relax champ he will clear 20.

Not sure I'd be locking him in to clear 20, but he'll definitely clear 15. I've got him on about 20 votes

 

[dontlimitme]

Whos ROB?

reilly obrien

 

[Nicktheguy]

Poll a vote:
Koschitzke
Ziebell
T Thomas
AMT
Cumming
M Kennedy
@8.70

Is 'poll a vote' on SB? Can't find it anywhere

 

[invisible_]

If anyone is rewatching games can you have a look at round 6 - carlton v brisbane? My votes don't seem to be anything like what I've seen on other counts.

 

[TheRednWhite]

Is 'poll a vote' on SB? Can't find it anywhere

yeah it's on SB, in the "pick your own vote" section