AFL 2021 Brownlow Medal (any results after no posting is automatic card)

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Probably still a fair bit of an outside chance, but surely Touk Miller is gaining a bit of traction. Has been the most noticeable player on ground in the last chunk of Gold Coast games. Can’t even find odds for him anywhere...

As mentioned above he’s been suspended so ineligible to win the medal. You can still get odds on him for a Top 5, 10 or 20 finish though.
 

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Top 30 based off counts from Beforeyoubet, sportingnews, betfair and espn

TeamPlayerAverageMinMax
1​
Western BulldogsBontempelli, Marcus
23.5​
15​
29​
2​
Port AdelaideWines, Oliver
23.25​
16​
30​
3​
EssendonParish, Darcy
20.125​
17​
23​
4​
MelbourneOliver, Clayton
19​
13​
24​
5​
ST KildaSteele, Jack
16.625​
10​
22​
6​
CarltonWalsh, Sam
16.5​
10​
22​
7​
Gold CoastMiller, Touk
16.375​
10​
21​
8​
MelbournePetracca, Christian
15.75​
10​
24​
9​
FremantleMundy, David
15​
11​
21​
10​
BrisbaneMcCluggage, Hugh
14.75​
8​
21​
11​
HawthornMitchell, Tom
14.625​
9​
19​
12​
EssendonMerrett, Zachary
13.5​
7​
20​
13​
AdelaideLaird, Rory
13.25​
6​
22​
14​
Western BulldogsMacrae, Jackson
13.25​
6​
24​
15​
GWSKelly, Joshua
12.875​
9​
19​
16​
Port AdelaideBoak, Travis
12.875​
7​
20​
17​
BrisbaneLyons, Jarryd
12.25​
6​
23​
18​
RichmondMartin, Dustin
12.25​
8​
17​
19​
SydneyMills, Callum
11.625​
5​
18​
20​
GeelongGuthrie, Cameron
11.25​
7​
16​
21​
North MelbourneCunnington, Ben
10.75​
7​
16​
22​
BrisbaneZorko, Dayne
9​
4​
14​
23​
AdelaideWalker, Taylor
8.75​
7​
11​
24​
MelbourneGawn, Max
8.625​
5​
15​
25​
FremantleBrayshaw, Andrew
8.375​
3​
16​
26​
West CoastSheed, Dominic
8.125​
4​
14​
27​
SydneyParker, Luke
8​
2​
16​
28​
West CoastKelly, Tim
8​
4​
13​
29​
GWSGreene, Toby
7.5​
4​
11​
30​
GWSTaranto, Tim
7.5​
2​
15​
 
Top 30 based off counts from Beforeyoubet, sportingnews, betfair and espn


Tricky one. I thought Darcy, Brayshaw and even Dow were clearly better, yet none were obvious 3 votes either. Walsh fits the narrative, and umps are sucked into that as much as we are.
Thought Darcy was pretty good to be honest, but the Blues got the win so Walsh probably gets it
TeamPlayerAverageMinMax
1​
Western BulldogsBontempelli, Marcus
23.5​
15​
29​
2​
Port AdelaideWines, Oliver
23.25​
16​
30​
3​
EssendonParish, Darcy
20.125​
17​
23​
4​
MelbourneOliver, Clayton
19​
13​
24​
5​
ST KildaSteele, Jack
16.625​
10​
22​
6​
CarltonWalsh, Sam
16.5​
10​
22​
7​
Gold CoastMiller, Touk
16.375​
10​
21​
8​
MelbournePetracca, Christian
15.75​
10​
24​
9​
FremantleMundy, David
15​
11​
21​
10​
BrisbaneMcCluggage, Hugh
14.75​
8​
21​
11​
HawthornMitchell, Tom
14.625​
9​
19​
12​
EssendonMerrett, Zachary
13.5​
7​
20​
13​
AdelaideLaird, Rory
13.25​
6​
22​
14​
Western BulldogsMacrae, Jackson
13.25​
6​
24​
15​
GWSKelly, Joshua
12.875​
9​
19​
16​
Port AdelaideBoak, Travis
12.875​
7​
20​
17​
BrisbaneLyons, Jarryd
12.25​
6​
23​
18​
RichmondMartin, Dustin
12.25​
8​
17​
19​
SydneyMills, Callum
11.625​
5​
18​
20​
GeelongGuthrie, Cameron
11.25​
7​
16​
21​
North MelbourneCunnington, Ben
10.75​
7​
16​
22​
BrisbaneZorko, Dayne
9​
4​
14​
23​
AdelaideWalker, Taylor
8.75​
7​
11​
24​
MelbourneGawn, Max
8.625​
5​
15​
25​
FremantleBrayshaw, Andrew
8.375​
3​
16​
26​
West CoastSheed, Dominic
8.125​
4​
14​
27​
SydneyParker, Luke
8​
2​
16​
28​
West CoastKelly, Tim
8​
4​
13​
29​
GWSGreene, Toby
7.5​
4​
11​
30​
GWSTaranto, Tim
7.5​
2​
15​
 
Does Parish, get the 3 against the Cats, or does Danger pinch it? Cats won comfortably in the end, but 28 Contested Possessions, 13 Clearances, 15 Inside 50s and 908 Metres Gained are insane stats.
 
Miller was suspended for a week so can't win the medal
Shit suspension too. Put a bump shepherd on Nick Coffield, crouched down and bumped him below the shoulder but heads connected slightly.

Didn't get concussed, and didn't miss any games because of it. We really should have appealed it.

 
What odds was Darcy Parish pre season?
 

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RD 16 leaderboard: me (left) averaged counts (right)

Aware of my count being a bit high using others in average to remove some bias

Oliver MEL
25​
bont WB
23.27​
wines PA
25​
wines PA
22.65​
bont WB
22​
Oliver MEL
21.12​
steele STK
21​
Parish ess
19.68​
Walsh Car
20​
steele STK
18.39​
lyons BL
19​
Walsh Car
16.70​
petracca MEL
19​
Petracca
16.68​
Parish ess
18​
Macrae WB
16.52​
merrett ESS
16​
Miller GC
16.44​
Miller GC
16​
merrett ESS
14.93​
Macrae WB
15​
mitchell haw
14.71​
mundy FREO
15​
lyons BL
14.51​
mitchell haw
15​
mundy FREO
14.25​
guthrie GEEL
14​
Boak PORT
13.55​
mcluggage BL
14​
mcluggage BL
13.31​
laird adel
13​
D Martin RICH
12.76​
Boak PORT
13​
laird adel
11.98​
kelly gws
13​
kelly gws
11.92​
D Martin RICH
12​
guthrie GEEL
11.52​
parkerSYD
12​
Mills SYD
11.47​
Mills SYD
12​
cunnington NM
10.32​
 
Round 16:

GC v RIC:
3. Touk Miller
2. Ben Ainsworth
1. Tom Lynch

GEE v ESS:
3. Darcy Parish
2. Patrick Dangerfield
1. Tom Hawkins

MEL v GWS:
3. Josh Kelly
2. Tim Taranto
1. Callan Ward

ADE v BRI:
3. Zac Bailey
2. Jarryd Lyons
1. Marcus Adams

FRE v CAR:
3. Sean Darcy
2. Sam Walsh
1. Jacob Weitering

HAW v POR:
3. Ollie Wines
2. Charlie Dixon
1. Karl Amon

SYD v WC:
3. Callum Mills
2. Oliver Florent
1. Luke Parker

COL v STK:
3. Jack Steele
2. Taylor Adams
1. Brad Hill

WB v NM:
3. Ben Cunnington
2. Tom Liberatore
1. Cody Weightman
 
Into $5.28 for the multi of all 3.
Think Steele at $1.70 is still incredible value. In incredible form, and even if somehow he doesn’t poll from this point on he’s a decent chance of having the 14+ needed for top 20 already

Not even suss from Sportsbet…
In the 5 minutes since this post

Steele $1.70 -> $1.30
Titch $1.50 -> $1.40
Laird $2.10 -> $1.90
No other movements in top 20 market

Multi into $3.45
 
Not even suss from Sportsbet…
In the 5 minutes since this post

Steele $1.70 -> $1.30
Titch $1.50 -> $1.40
Laird $2.10 -> $1.90
No other movements in top 20 market

Multi into $3.45
Laird is the danger one for me atm. Got him in quite a few multis at big odds. Everyone else is firing but Laird top 20 is the one leg that could be the difference between a monster Brownlow night and a mediocre one
 
Want to post my thoughts and get involved like every year I do but with information getting revealed, all the markets change. Anyone know a private PM or group that can discuss Brownlow tips, predictions and forum instead of participating here?
 
They aren't reading this, all it takes is for one guy that's marked by them to bet and the prices will move, especially for a market they are skittish about like Brownlow team betting. They have a screen that has every bet coming through and if they think you are good or someone who takes advantage of incorrect prices you come up as red. So if you put a tip up here and 3 or 4 people all jump on they will see a lot of red and move the price.
 
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