AFL 2021 Brownlow Medal (any results after no posting is automatic card)

[balmainforever]

 

[LionsOrDieTrion]

Who do you guys have leading overall at the saints, Dunstan is $1.60 I believe that’s way too short. Thinking crouch (This is without Steele)

Crouch 8
Billings 7…
Dunstan 5

 

[FootyStar#1]

Would you mind sharing your round by round breakdown? Genuinely interested as I only have him polling 25-26 and 4 to 5 votes off the mark.

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Same with me. I think I have him on 26. Oliver is the one I think takes it right now. Steele very close.

I won’t be touching the winners market, far too risky. It’s going to be an amazing count though, right down to the last round.

 

[RedCarpetFev]

Round 1 - 1 vote
Round 2 - 2 votes (3 is a big chance)
Round 4 - 1 vote
Round 5 - 2 votes
Round 6- 3 votes (Amon big first quarter but generally faded out, Wines huge in clearances and inside 50’s)
Round 7 - 0 (absolutely huge with 37, 1.1 and 6 invites 50s but Port got flogged so ive left him out).
Round 8 - 0 (32, 1 goal but Port lost, can easily take the 1).
Round 9 - 1
Round 11 - 3
Round 14 - 3
Round 15 - 1
Round 16 - 3
Round 18 - 3
Round 19 - 3
Round 20 - 2
Round 22 - 1
Round 23 - 2

= 31

I have given him no votes in port loses but he was very good in the Brisbane, Dogs, Geelong & Melbourne games. Could’ve easily picked up 2-3 votes across these games.

Have given him a single vote across round 21 & 23 when he could've polled in both.

I often sided with him getting 2 votes in games he’s 50/50 for 3.

Wines numbers in clearances and inside 50’s were huge. Something i really noticed when going through his games. These stats have proven as key KPI’s for vote getters. Its not to say the other favourites weren’t big in this area, its just that we are talking purely what Wines polls here.

Thanks, it's definitely interesting to compare. 26 is the total I have Wines on 5 off the lead in my count.

1 - 1
2 - 2
4 - 2
5 - 1
6 - 3
11 - 3
14 - 3
16 - 3
17 - 1
18 - 3
19 - 1
20 - 1
23 - 2

So glaring differences, which isn't many.

Round 9 - I have no votes. Bulldogs stood out more and in my notes I have Boak being better than Wines, haven't given him a vote either.

Round 19 - I've given him 1 vote compared to 3 votes. Drew a clear BOG in my notes.

Round 20 - I've given him 1 vote compared to 2 votes. Amon clear BOG and had Wines, Boak and Dixon all on a pretty even playing field next in line.

Round 22 - No votes in mine. Aliir Aliir and Boak BOG in notes, Amon and Wines next in line. So could certainly take a vote or two here I guess but wasn't as impressive to the eye for me on the day compared to Amon.

So really no huge differences. Just think collecting plenty of 1's and 2's he might fall short. If they end up being 3's on the night I guess he could also shit it in as well.

 

[RobbyRoy]

I'll add my top 5 into the mix:

32.5 - Oliver
31 - Steele
30.5 - Bontempelli
30 - Wines
28.5 - Petracca

I have an unusually high room for error this season. Most years I have a strong feeling I've under or overpolled a couple of the top 20-30 guys. This year, I wouldn't be surprised if any of these five got 25 or less, or if Macrae, who I have on 20, won it.

 

[Islanda22]

I'll add my top 5 into the mix:

32.5 - Oliver
31 - Steele
30.5 - Bontempelli
30 - Wines
28.5 - Petracca

I have an unusually high room for error this season. Most years I have a strong feeling I've under or overpolled a couple of the top 20-30 guys. This year, I wouldn't be surprised if any of these five got 25 or less, or if Macrae, who I have on 20, won it.

Wouldn't be surprised if it's a tie between Oliver, Bont and Wines

 

[EFL Boy]

Bit of a hand-picked, fitting the narrative type stat here but since 2016 in games that Port Adelaide have won AND that Ollie Wines has had 27+ disposals, he has polled votes in 20/26 games.

So here's his season:

RD 1: 30 disposals, W
RD 2: 38 disposals, W
RD 3: 26 disposals, L
RD 4: 27 disposals, W
RD 5: 32 disposals, W
RD 6: 36 disposals, W
RD 7: 37 disposals, L
RD 8: 24 disposals, W
RD 9: 32 disposals, L
RD 10: 27 disposals, W
RD 11: 35 disposals, W
RD 13: 29 disposals, L
RD 14: 43 disposals, W
RD 15: 29 disposals, W
RD 16: 43 disposals, W
RD 17: 33 disposals, L
RD 18: 36 disposals, W
RD 19: 30 disposals, W
RD 20: 28 disposals, W
RD 21: 26 disposals, W
RD 22: 31 disposals, W
RD 23: 34 disposals, W

So prior to this year, whenever Wines had 27+ disposals AND Port Adelaide won, Wines averaged 1.8 votes per game. 20/26 games in which he met these targets, he polled.

He reached this target 15 times this season. 15 x 1.8 = 27.

 

[demon_fanatic]

sorry guys but when do we expect the round by round stuff to come out on tab and b365??

 

[Peterjv]

sorry guys but when do we expect the round by round stuff to come out on tab and b365??

From memory, I believe the round-by-round odds only come out at around 1-2 weeks before Brownlow night

 

[Peterjv]

Not worth touching Cunnington at those odds. I’d sit on that one and be backing Hall for sure at great odds.

Just check out how many disposals he’s had.

Cunners in to $1.8 at Bet365 while Hall is out to $13. If you were backing Hall for sure at great odds of $9, then surely you'd be putting the house on it now at $13!!!

 

[LucasParker]

Cunners in to $1.8 at Bet365 while Hall is out to $13. If you were backing Hall for sure at great odds of $9, then surely you'd be putting the house on it now at $13!!!

Hall is not winning the north votes, how did this become a thing haha

 

[Young Gun #6]

Cunners in to $1.8 at Bet365 while Hall is out to $13. If you were backing Hall for sure at great odds of $9, then surely you'd be putting the house on it now at $13!!!

Absolutely mate time to load up !

 

[FootyStar#1]

Absolutely mate time to load up !

View attachment 1217215

Simpkin will be very close. I think you’ll find much safer brownlow bets / multis with similar odds in the next few weeks than this.

 

[rwandandream]

Does anyone have the Herald Sun's final count?

 

[Tigers04]

TAB have released their team vote leaders. You can also multi them so for those who think Cunnington is a good chance to take out north’s votes he is pretty good value at $1.85 to multi with a few others

 

[NonPhixion]

TAB have released their team vote leaders. You can also multi them so for those who think Cunnington is a good chance to take out north’s votes he is pretty good value at $1.85 to multi with a few others

McKay (no Walsh)
Keays (no Laird)
De Goey
Ellis (no Miller)
Cunnington
Martin
$201.04

Ellis should go pretty close, I rekon Anderson under polls.

 

[pendlebury_10]

McKay (no Walsh)
Keays (no Laird)
De Goey
Ellis (no Miller)
Cunnington
Martin
$201.04

Ellis should go pretty close, I rekon Anderson under polls.

I've got Texan ahead of Keays (just), he is in from $2.10 to $1.90 in no time. Plenty of counts like this that could go either way.

 

[Tigers04]

Lyons
Mckay
Degoey
Mundy
Oliver
Josh kelly
Guthrie
Brad crouch

5

Brad Crouch

Age

30

Ht

186cm

Wt

86kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

26.1

5star

K

12.1

4star

HB

14.0

5star

M

2.7

3star

T

5.5

5star

CL

5.0

5star

D

20.3

5star

K

11.1

4star

HB

9.1

5star

M

1.5

2star

T

3.9

5star

CL

4.6

5star

D

21.6

5star

K

10.0

4star

HB

11.6

5star

M

3.4

4star

T

4.2

5star

CL

2.6

5star

Martin
Parker
Cunnington
Boak
Bont
$296

 

[LionsOrDieTrion]

Omeara
Walker
McKay
JDG
Parish
Mundy
JKelly
Guthrie
Ellis
Lyons
Oliver
Cunnington
Martin
Crouch
Parker
Sheed
Bont
Boak
@21k

get around me

 

[RedCarpetFev]

McKay without Walsh $2.50 and Wingard $2.30 without Mitchell look real value. Will be throwing in a few multis for sure. DeGoey drifted to $2.25 somehow as well.

 

[Young Gun #6]

McKay without Walsh $2.50 and Wingard $2.30 without Mitchell look real value. Will be throwing in a few multis for sure. DeGoey drifted to $2.25 somehow as well.

De Goey was $2.50 he actually came in.

Wingard without Mitchell is $3 pointsbet you just can’t multi it.

 

[Peterjv]

At the moment, only TAB has the kahunas to allow us to multi Teams votes. No individual player in particular stands out as amazing value as I think prices have come in to line a bit, but if you multi up 5+ legs you're confident in then there's always great value there!

 

[BuddysBiggestFan]

Lads gives you the multi option for teams then won’t allow it when you checkout…..

 

[Tigers04]

Sportsbet have opened up team votes but no multi

 

[Young Gun #6]

Wouldnt matter if Sportsbet did allow multi’s or not they’re team votes odds are putrid and will only get worse when multi’s do open.

They do it every year. Crunch all the odds in to unbackable and then open up team multis.

TAB so much better in that regard as well as head to heads and groups.

 

[RedCarpetFev]

De Goey was $2.50 he actually came in.

Wingard without Mitchell is $3 pointsbet you just can’t multi it.

Incorrect. DeGoey in my multi betslips from last week at TAB for $2.00