AFL 2021 Brownlow Medal (any results after no posting is automatic card)

[balmainforever]

 

[BuddysBiggestFan]

Left out Mitchell and Macrae for top 10

 

[Tigers04]

Top 5:
Wines, Oliver and Bont
Top 10:
Walsh, parish, Mitchell, Miller, petracca
Top 20:
Mundy, boak, Merrett, Lyons, Guthrie, kelly, Parker, laird

$78.45

 

[NonPhixion]

Bont + Wines top 5
Trac + Parish top 10
Boak + Merrett + Parker top 20
$4.63 without a boost

how much can I get on SB

 

[Leeroy Brown 15]

Bont + Wines top 5
Trac + Parish top 10
Boak + Merrett + Parker top 20
$4.63 without a boost

how much can I get on SB

Replace Parish with Walsh if you want a stress free night. Also Bont/Wines for Steele

 

[offthebusgus]

Steele top 10
Merrett & Boak top 20
$1.29

 

[Leeroy Brown 15]

Steele top 10
Merrett & Boak top 20
$1.29

It’s like printing money

 

[alhay6]

I'd caution everyone to go easy on Top 5/10/20 multis as ties can really fk up your odds. Would definitely recommend waiting for the 10/15/20/25+ votes markets as a lot more predictable and you aren't relying on the votes of others for your bets to get up.

 

[FootyStar#1]

I'd caution everyone to go easy on Top 5/10/20 multis as ties can really fk up your odds. Would definitely recommend waiting for the 10/15/20/25+ votes markets as a lot more predictable and you aren't relying on the votes of others for your bets to get up.

very true, I got way too trigger happy. Have to step away.

 

[burge13]

Bont + Wines top 5
Trac + Parish top 10
Boak + Merrett + Parker top 20
$4.63 without a boost

how much can I get on SB

"your request has been sent to the trading team for approval"

...

"Your bet has been approved for a $0.68 stake"

 

[burge13]

The trouble I have with a multi across different bands like 5, 10 and 20 is the likelihood of a tie in each band

BF predictor has Parish and Merrett on 24 and 23.5 for 10th for example.

You're giving yourself 3 chances at a tie and tanking your odds...

 

[NonPhixion]

The trouble I have with a multi across different bands like 5, 10 and 20 is the likelihood of a tie in each band

BF predictor has Parish and Merrett on 24 and 23.5 for 10th for example.

You're giving yourself 3 chances at a tie and tanking your odds...

Yep - I think it’s best to just minimise the legs in each

 

[burge13]

Yep - I think it’s best to just minimise the legs in each

Won't matter relative to the problem?

If you have Parish bet for top 10 and he ties with Merrett in 10th, it'll tank the odds of the entire multi anyway...

That risk is then multiplied by 3 by doing 5, 10, & 20

 

[NonPhixion]

Won't matter relative to the problem?

If you have Parish bet for top 10 and he ties with Merrett in 10th, it'll tank the odds of the entire multi anyway...

That risk is then multiplied by 3 by doing 5, 10, & 20

It’s true - I just meant that the less players there are the less chance of a tie

 

[LionsOrDieTrion]

You can actually multi the winner/top 3/5/10/20. been able to do this since yesterday.

 

[Tigers04]

BYB
mitchell, Walsh 22+ votes
Steele, Bont and Oliver 28+ votes
$5

anyone else think this is decent?
will be close but could certainly pay off especially with some of the counts going around

 

[Frinkle]

BYB
mitchell, Walsh 22+ votes
Steele, Bont and Oliver 28+ votes
$5

anyone else think this is decent?
will be close but could certainly pay off especially with some of the counts going around

Is a very good chance of getting up, good odds aswell

 

[Jugada]

Legitimately left a zero off those odds.

Given three players polling 28+ alone has only ever happened once ever i would say $5 is awful unders particular when the fav isn't even one of the 3.

Then you still need the other blokes to poll 22 as well

 

[Tigers04]

Legitimately left a zero off those odds.

Given three players polling 28+ alone has only ever happened once ever i would say $5 is awful unders particular when the fav isn't even one of the 3.

Then you still need the other blokes to poll 22 as well

An extra 0 would be nice lol, appreciate your opinion though as you make valid points! Just trying to gauge what others think as there is stuff all value in these BYBs at the moment.

 

[FootyStar#1]

An extra 0 would be nice lol, appreciate your opinion though as you make valid points! Just trying to gauge what others think as there is stuff all value in these BYBs at the moment.

It’s by far the best option for BYOB so far in my opinion.

 

[LionsOrDieTrion]

It’s by far the best option for BYOB so far in my opinion.

Agree, it clears on my count.

 

[5 Bucks]

Oliver and Steele to outpoll Wines and Bont $2.10 SB BYOB

 

[Tigers04]

Few more BYBs out now, can’t really see much value though?

 

[Tigers04]

Boxed first 4 of
Wines, oliver, Bont and Steele
$4.
Cant see anyone else finishing top 4.

 

[FootyStar#1]

Boxed first 4 of
Wines, oliver, Bont and Steele
$4.
Cant see anyone else finishing top 4.

Yep, I reckon petracca would be the only one if he polls out of his skin.

 

[HTPunter]

My final count

Final count
1. J. Steele 29
2. C. Oliver 28
3. M. Bontempelli 27
4. O. Wines 26
5. S. Walsh 25
6. Z. Merrett, C. Petracca 23
8. T. Mitchell 22
9. T. Miller 20
10. T. Boak, J. Macrae 19

Main things that concern me are Walsh seems overpolled, and I have Oliver polling in an extraordinary amount of games - if he has a good polling year he could go 33+, if he argued with the umps too much he will be around 22-23!

It's not all that whack to have 8 players over 20 - 2019 and 2016 were similar years. Plus this year has seen a fair amount of mids consistently churn out huge numbers week in week out, so I fully expect the standouts to poll well in wins and scab a few in losses.
I did see someone discussing the top heaviness of their top 20 - discussed 36% being a common number for previous years. I had 35.3%.

Really hope I'm close to the mark, not just for betting but makes Brownlow night interesting, goes into round 23 with Bont 27, Steele 26, Oliver, Walsh 25, Wines 24 - just a few here and there and it's a 3 or 4 way tie..