AFL 2021 Brownlow Medal (any results after no posting is automatic card)

[balmainforever]

 

[LionsOrDieTrion]

Correct me if I'm wrong, however wasn't it last year you were extremely confident that Fyfe was going to be in the Top 10 and was extremely good value? Furthermore the DownlowOnTheBrownlow supposedly backed up your claim, and you actively promoted people buying it (whilst dedicated punters are posting in here for free). Fyfe ended up finishing =20th for the record ...

Yeah this bloke acted like he didn’t own it and was just passing on info, then the truth came out.

 

[dontlimitme]

Touts gonna tout

 

[Frinkle]

Has anyone on here actually had any of their requested byo bets made available on Sportsbet? I’ve requested 5 and haven’t had any of them put up. I feel like they are just making shit ones up themselves or taking the garbage ones this year.

 

[TheJanuaryMan]

They are pretty good though lel

How much are these Exclusive.Packages?. Asking for a friend.

 

[Mrose45]

Yeah this bloke acted like he didn’t own it and was just passing on info, then the truth came out.

I genuinely don’t own it. But I did come onboard a few years ago.

 

[TheJanuaryMan]

Has anyone on here actually had any of their requested byo bets made available on Sportsbet? I’ve requested 5 and haven’t had any of them put up. I feel like they are just making sh*t ones up themselves or taking the garbage ones this year.

As a general rule with bookies, if they think something will win, they are usually reluctant to offer it.

 

[ronpingwins]

I love this time of the year!

Www.downlowonthebrownlow.com.au is back to give you an extensive look on how the Brownlow should shape up. We have 15 different counts and a whole bunch of data at the tip of your fingers.

This isn’t for everyone but there may be some people here who would like some extra insight. This is for those people.
Good luck to everyone punting. I hope we can take every dollar from the betting agencies

How many of these did you end up selling last year out of curiosity?

 

[Mrose45]

How much are these Exclusive.Packages?. Asking for a friend.

How many of these did you end up selling last year out of curiosity?

Honestly couldn’t tell you mate. I wasn’t in charge of that stuff. My guess is over 100

 

[burge13]

What goes through peoples heads

Here we have a thread full of knowledgeable, proven winners discussing things openly for free. Yet an unproven person offers to sell their advice as if anyone wants it?! Delusional

 

[Mrose45]

What goes through peoples heads

Here we have a thread full of knowledgeable, proven winners discussing things openly for free. Yet an unproven person offers to sell their advice as if anyone wants it?! Delusional

I don’t think you understand the extensiveness of the data collected, opinions are great to have, but at the end of the day it’s the data that does all the talking. But like I said before, this is purely for the people that want that extra bit of help. This was 6 months of work compiled into one entire detailed spreadsheet. If you put enough work into something, you don’t do it for free.

 

[Tigers04]

I don’t think you understand the extensiveness of the data collected, opinions are great to have, but at the end of the day it’s the data that does all the talking. But like I said before, this is purely for the people that want that extra bit of help. This was 6 months of work compiled into one entire detailed spreadsheet. If you put enough work into something, you don’t do it for free.

If you post the tips on here for free one year and they are very profitable or they are tips or knowledge everyone doesn’t already know then you might get people that subscribe, but doubtful you will get anyone that will subscribe when we talk about it freely and share info in here.
Sometimes you have to promote a product before people buy

 

[EFL Boy]

I love this time of the year!

I hope we can take every dollar from the betting agencies

Or every dollar from the average punter.

 

[Mrose45]

If you post the tips on here for free one year and they are very profitable or they are tips or knowledge everyone doesn’t already know then you might get people that subscribe, but doubtful you will get anyone that will subscribe when we talk about it freely and share info in here.
Sometimes you have to promote a product before people buy

Yeah well aware of that. I’m sure if you go on our Facebook page you can enter the race to win the package for free.

 

[TheJanuaryMan]

Yeah well aware of that. I’m sure if you go on our Facebook page you can enter the race to win the package for free.

What was your ROI last year on data which was available before the count. Eg not "we made 55 percent profit on a system nobody saw or could verify"?

 

[dontlimitme]

I don’t think you understand the extensiveness of the data collected, opinions are great to have, but at the end of the day it’s the data that does all the talking. But like I said before, this is purely for the people that want that extra bit of help. This was 6 months of work compiled into one entire detailed spreadsheet. If you put enough work into something, you don’t do it for free.

DATA. SPREADSHEETS. AL-GO-RI-THIMS. KNOWLEDGE. COMMITMENT. WORK. DETERMINATION.

all for only one easy payment of 39.95, if you buy within the next 15 minutes we'll throw in a limited edition brayden fiorini bobblehead EXCLUSIVE to us

 

[Bontempele]

Me, hoping TJM releases his count

 

[Geeves Train]

I don’t think you understand the extensiveness of the data collected, opinions are great to have, but at the end of the day it’s the data that does all the talking. But like I said before, this is purely for the people that want that extra bit of help. This was 6 months of work compiled into one entire detailed spreadsheet. If you put enough work into something, you don’t do it for free.

If your data and spreadsheets are so great and so superior to everyone else who posts here can I ask why you would price them at $40 and make up to $4000 for the year (if you do sell 100) between the 15 counts you have as opposed to just hammering markets when they open and making x4-5 of that??

 

[dontlimitme]

I don’t think you understand the extensiveness of the data collected, opinions are great to have, but at the end of the day it’s the data that does all the talking. But like I said before, this is purely for the people that want that extra bit of help. This was 6 months of work compiled into one entire detailed spreadsheet. If you put enough work into something, you don’t do it for free.

 

[BigInsideMid]

Is anyone doing a round by round 3 vote roll over or has anyone been successful in previous years? Personally I think I got to round 12 last year when dom sheed played Carlton kicked 2 goals and had 25odd, was clearly best player on the ground and didn’t get a vote

I was doing one account with even rounds and another with odds. Pulled out my money on the last round which ended up being a blessing in disguise. From memory, I had Steele to poll 3 and ended up only polling 2.

 

[Mrose45]

If your data and spreadsheets are so great and so superior to everyone else who posts here can I ask why you would price them at $40 and make up to $4000 for the year (if you do sell 100) between the 15 counts you have as opposed to just hammering markets when they open and making x4-5 of that??

It’s for the people to get ahold of also to help them out. You don’t have to go for the best bets option. The extensive count is $25 and you can make your mind up on what bets you want to do by referring to the data. You are all adults, you don’t need to be told what to do. The data is provided for you to do with what you please. The best bets can be added to the package if you want it.

 

[Mrose45]

What was your ROI last year on data which was available before the count. Eg not "we made 55 percent profit on a system nobody saw or could verify"?

I’ve had a look back at my emails and this is one of the volumes of our best bets that I’ve found from last year

 

[briza95]

Hi guys,
First year doing a round by round count. This is my leaderboard for anyone thats interested.
Wines 35
Steele 33
Oliver 32
Bont 31
Mitchell 29
Miller 27
Petracca 27
Walsh 25
Boak 24
Macrae 24
I feel like i have overpolled the big possession winners ie wines, mitchell, miller.
The best value for me personally in the markets atm is steele top 3 $2.5 and Mccluggage top 20 $2
Thoughts anyone?

 

[HTPunter]

Interesting count mate. Could I ask what you have Parish finishing on? So Merrett is at least 4 votes in front of him?

I also reckon there will be a large number of players polling over 20 this year, possible 10-12 players. We can always look at history for trends however you can only take each game on its merit and this year that's how it has seemed to pan out with a large group of consistent dominant midfielders.

Parish on 18 - I have Merrett over him round 11, Merrett & Stringer both in round 18, and Stringer in round 22.
I also have Martin & Bolton ahead in the Dreamtime game, fascinating game to predict as Parish obviously got the medal, you have to go back to 2015 to see a player not get the 3 after winning the medal in that game. I think it'd probably be a similar stat for 44 disposals. However, not often 2 players with the on field presence and highlights of Dusty and Bolton also perform and have match winning moments while the best oppo mid gets 44.

Parish could poll as high as 23 if it all goes right but as a breakout mid I don't think he attracts his maximum expected votes.

 

[HTPunter]

At this stage I'm looking at

McKay without Walsh $2.50 on Lads (going against what I do normally and also going with E.Curnow $2.60 SB for real odds of $1.275 - have high confidence that these guys had the standout vote games, Cripps & Weitering will find it tougher to poll the 6+ needed).
2U on each

2U Merrett most votes Essendon $2.20

Billings most without Steele $10 - got him on 8, best case 9, Dunstan on 7, best case 10...fingers crossed it's not best case for Dunstan.
0.4U Billings @ $10

Anderson without Miller $1.40
O'Meara without Mitchell $1.65
Amon without Boak/Wines $1.20
Martin most votes Richmond $1.15
Parker most votes Sydney $1.50
2U @ $5.15

Small amounts (0.2U) on Fyfe most votes Freo ($21) and Dangerfield most votes Geelong ($17) - I have them 4 and 3 behind their leaders respectively but both have too good a polling history to ignore at those odds. If Mundy and Guthrie only poll 12ish (3 votes under expected) they are both in with a good shot, at the least could tie.

Have Treloar, Smith & Libba all on 6 - Libba has a poor history and I think Smith is the most likely to standout. However, having Treloar on the same votes means I'll take him at $7 too. Libba the most likely to underpoll.
0.5U Smith @ $3
0.3U Treloar @ $7

I also have Taranto 13 Hopper 12 Kelly 11 at GWS, and the odds are with Hopper ($9) and Taranto ($6), but I always find GWS really hard to poll. Kelly looks smooth too so he is a good poller, whereas Taranto is a butcher and Hopper could go the way of a favoured Priddis type attracting votes or ignored in the way of an Oliver.
0.3U Hopper @ $9
0.3U Taranto @ $6

2U Steele WIN @ $9
0.7U Boxed pick 4 Oliver/Steele/Bont/Wines @ $4
1U Oliver WIN @ $4
1U Bont WIN @ $3.75
0.3U Dusty leading after round 5 @ $7.50
2U Oliver to poll in most games @ $2.10

17.2u total outlay

Probably spend a further 13 on 3 vote games when they come out.
Eyeing off:
Billings round 1, Parfitt round 5, O'Meara round 6, Ah Chee round 8 (too many mids sharing the disposals pie), Dunstan round 11, Dusty round 12, Aish round 13, Moore (Haw) round 15, Weightman round 16, S. Taylor round 21, Seedsman round 22

Just comparing to the Betfair predictor, think all of these will have value in them.

(just in case anyone truly disagrees with my post, I only post this for my own fun/some proof if I somehow nail it, I truly gamble within my means and am not going to lose sleep over getting Brownlow votes wrong)

 

[NonPhixion]

At this stage I'm looking at

McKay without Walsh $2.50 on Lads (going against what I do normally and also going with E.Curnow $2.60 SB for real odds of $1.275 - have high confidence that these guys had the standout vote games, Cripps & Weitering will find it tougher to poll the 6+ needed).
2U on each

2U Merrett most votes Essendon $2.20

Billings most without Steele $10 - got him on 8, best case 9, Dunstan on 7, best case 10...fingers crossed it's not best case for Dunstan.
0.4U Billings @ $10

Anderson without Miller $1.40
O'Meara without Mitchell $1.65
Amon without Boak/Wines $1.20
Martin most votes Richmond $1.15
Parker most votes Sydney $1.50
2U @ $5.15

Small amounts (0.2U) on Fyfe most votes Freo ($21) and Dangerfield most votes Geelong ($17) - I have them 4 and 3 behind their leaders respectively but both have too good a polling history to ignore at those odds. If Mundy and Guthrie only poll 12ish (3 votes under expected) they are both in with a good shot, at the least could tie.

Have Treloar, Smith & Libba all on 6 - Libba has a poor history and I think Smith is the most likely to standout. However, having Treloar on the same votes means I'll take him at $7 too. Libba the most likely to underpoll.
0.5U Smith @ $3
0.3U Treloar @ $7

I also have Taranto 13 Hopper 12 Kelly 11 at GWS, and the odds are with Hopper ($9) and Taranto ($6), but I always find GWS really hard to poll. Kelly looks smooth too so he is a good poller, whereas Taranto is a butcher and Hopper could go the way of a favoured Priddis type attracting votes or ignored in the way of an Oliver.
0.3U Hopper @ $9
0.3U Taranto @ $6

2U Steele WIN @ $9
0.7U Boxed pick 4 Oliver/Steele/Bont/Wines @ $4
1U Oliver WIN @ $4
1U Bont WIN @ $3.75
0.3U Dusty leading after round 5 @ $7.50
2U Oliver to poll in most games @ $2.10

17.2u total outlay

Probably spend a further 13 on 3 vote games when they come out.
Eyeing off:
Billings round 1, Parfitt round 5, O'Meara round 6, Ah Chee round 8 (too many mids sharing the disposals pie), Dunstan round 11, Dusty round 12, Aish round 13, Moore (Haw) round 15, Weightman round 16, S. Taylor round 21, Seedsman round 22

Just comparing to the Betfair predictor, think all of these will have value in them.

(just in case anyone truly disagrees with my post, I only post this for my own fun/some proof if I somehow nail it, I truly gamble within my means and am not going to lose sleep over getting Brownlow votes wrong)

Love it bro