AFL 2021 Brownlow Medal (any results after no posting is automatic card)

[balmainforever]

 

[dontlimitme]

At this stage I'm looking at

McKay without Walsh $2.50 on Lads (going against what I do normally and also going with E.Curnow $2.60 SB for real odds of $1.275 - have high confidence that these guys had the standout vote games, Cripps & Weitering will find it tougher to poll the 6+ needed).
2U on each

2U Merrett most votes Essendon $2.20

Billings most without Steele $10 - got him on 8, best case 9, Dunstan on 7, best case 10...fingers crossed it's not best case for Dunstan.
0.4U Billings @ $10

Anderson without Miller $1.40
O'Meara without Mitchell $1.65
Amon without Boak/Wines $1.20
Martin most votes Richmond $1.15
Parker most votes Sydney $1.50
2U @ $5.15

Small amounts (0.2U) on Fyfe most votes Freo ($21) and Dangerfield most votes Geelong ($17) - I have them 4 and 3 behind their leaders respectively but both have too good a polling history to ignore at those odds. If Mundy and Guthrie only poll 12ish (3 votes under expected) they are both in with a good shot, at the least could tie.

Have Treloar, Smith & Libba all on 6 - Libba has a poor history and I think Smith is the most likely to standout. However, having Treloar on the same votes means I'll take him at $7 too. Libba the most likely to underpoll.
0.5U Smith @ $3
0.3U Treloar @ $7

I also have Taranto 13 Hopper 12 Kelly 11 at GWS, and the odds are with Hopper ($9) and Taranto ($6), but I always find GWS really hard to poll. Kelly looks smooth too so he is a good poller, whereas Taranto is a butcher and Hopper could go the way of a favoured Priddis type attracting votes or ignored in the way of an Oliver.
0.3U Hopper @ $9
0.3U Taranto @ $6

2U Steele WIN @ $9
0.7U Boxed pick 4 Oliver/Steele/Bont/Wines @ $4
1U Oliver WIN @ $4
1U Bont WIN @ $3.75
0.3U Dusty leading after round 5 @ $7.50
2U Oliver to poll in most games @ $2.10

17.2u total outlay

Probably spend a further 13 on 3 vote games when they come out.
Eyeing off:
Billings round 1, Parfitt round 5, O'Meara round 6, Ah Chee round 8 (too many mids sharing the disposals pie), Dunstan round 11, Dusty round 12, Aish round 13, Moore (Haw) round 15, Weightman round 16, S. Taylor round 21, Seedsman round 22

Just comparing to the Betfair predictor, think all of these will have value in them.

(just in case anyone truly disagrees with my post, I only post this for my own fun/some proof if I somehow nail it, I truly gamble within my means and am not going to lose sleep over getting Brownlow votes wrong)

should make a website and charge 40$ for this

 

[Mrose45]

should make a website and charge 40$ for this

Haters gonna hate. Don’t knock it until you have actually seen it my guy. A lot of effort and time went into it.

 

[dontlimitme]

Haters gonna hate. Don’t knock it until you have actually seen it my guy. A lot of effort and time went into it.

you posted your best bets already from last year, laughable to pay for that

 

[Prochard123]

Haters gonna hate. Don’t knock it until you have actually seen it my guy. A lot of effort and time went into it.

I mean you're not even going to give a preview lol?

I don't know how less trustworthy u can make it even if u tried.

Your posts on this thread just made it SO MUCH worse. I was legit thinking about it for a second before u made it seem super sus.

 

[Mrose45]

you posted your best bets already from last year, laughable to pay for that

Haha mate it was volume 1 of like 5. So quick to judge without knowing anything about it. That’s the world we live in, in a nutshell

 

[Mrose45]

I mean you're not even going to give a preview lol?

I don't know how less trustworthy u can make it even if u tried.

Your posts on this thread just made it SO MUCH worse. I was legit thinking about it for a second before u made it seem super sus.

There you go

 

[dontlimitme]

Haha mate it was volume 1 of like 5. So quick to judge without knowing anything about it. That’s the world we live in, in a nutshell

i'm sure it was an encyclopedia of knowledge full of statistical wizardry, using high level datasets and algorithms. And then you sell it as a tout on a shitty website that looks like it was made with crayons for $40

 

[Mrose45]

i'm sure it was an encyclopedia of knowledge full of statistical wizardry, using high level datasets and algorithms. And then you sell it as a tout on a shitty website that looks like it was made with crayons for $40

Unsure why you keep mentioning $40 as the leaderboard is only $25.

 

[dontlimitme]

Unsure why you keep mentioning $40 as the leaderboard is only $25.

oh. purchasing immediately then

 

[Mrose45]

oh. purchasing immediately then

Like I said mate. It’s not for everyone.

 

[NYRB]

Like I said mate. It’s not for everyone.

You don't seem to have many posts.

But how come around this time of year in the last two years you come on BigFooty to promote your product? Think your material would be worth a bit more in value if you contributed on a weekly basis?

 

[dontlimitme]

You don't seem to have many posts.

But how come around this time of year in the last two years you come on BigFooty to promote your product? Think your material would be worth a bit more in value if you contributed on a weekly basis?

precisely. it's so blatantly obvious. ****ing touts.

 

[Mrose45]

You don't seem to have many posts.

But how come around this time of year in the last two years you come on BigFooty to promote your product? Think your material would be worth a bit more in value if you contributed on a weekly basis?

You don't seem to have many posts.

But how come around this time of year in the last two years you come on BigFooty to promote your product? Think your material would be worth a bit more in value if you contributed on a weekly basis?

what is there to contribute where there is so many variables during the season, injuries, suspensions etc.. No point talking about what if’s until the season is actually completed and the data is there to look over

 

[dontlimitme]

what is there to contribute where there is so many variables during the season, injuries, suspensions etc.. No point talking about what if’s until the season is actually completed and the data is there to look over

yeah why would there be any value betting on the brownlow during the season?

 

[Mrose45]

yeah why would there be any value betting on the brownlow during the season?

Here’s a tip for you using the data. Something for you to look back on

 

[NonPhixion]

everyone has a right to feed their mouths, but you are in the wrong place to spruik these picks.

 

[Tigers04]

Un Brownlow related but the reigning Brownlow medallist wants to go back to Perth!!

 

[Prochard123]

Ok moving on... Can someone please kindly point out:

Apart from Sam Menegola

27

Sam Menegola

Age

32

Ht

189cm

Wt

89kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

19.6

5star

K

10.0

4star

HB

9.6

5star

M

5.1

5star

T

1.4

3star

CL

1.7

4star

D

19.6

5star

K

10.0

4star

HB

9.6

5star

M

5.1

5star

T

1.4

2star

CL

1.7

4star

D

18.4

5star

K

9.0

4star

HB

9.4

5star

M

5.6

5star

T

1.8

4star

CL

1.8

4star

, What were the lowest odds (most likely to win) for a player to win their team brownlow count but didn't?

Just trying to figure out what range of odds tend to be relatively safe. E.g. Right before brownlow night, the favourites with $1.00 - $1.50 odds very rarely lose.

 

[krayfesh]

Max Gawn

11

Max Gawn

Age

32

Ht

209cm

Wt

110kg

Pos.

Ruck

Career

Season

Last 5

D

14.1

4star

K

7.4

3star

HB

6.7

4star

CL

2.8

4star

HO

35.3

5star

D

18.5

4star

K

11.5

4star

HB

7.0

4star

CL

3.5

4star

HO

29.2

5star

D

8.4

3star

K

3.6

2star

HB

4.8

4star

CL

1.0

3star

HO

15.6

5star

was $1.40 a couple of years ago and I had faith.

Misplaced faith.

 

[Frinkle]

Rowell to win GC at like $1.15, would have been an anchor for a lot of multis

 

[Frinkle]

Rowell to win GC at like $1.15, would have been an anchor for a lot of multis

The teams that have very low counts in “most votes without Fav” are generally the ones that can throw a Spanner in the works, though can provide good value if you are smart/lucky enough to pick it

 

[Prochard123]

Max Gawn was $1.40 a couple of years ago and I had faith.

Misplaced faith.

Rowell to win GC at like $1.15, would have been an anchor for a lot of multis

Thanks! What if I change the question, and limit the criteria to non-Rowell midfielders only?

Who were the most disappointing mids on brownlow night?

 

[Turnover]

Here’s a tip for you using the data. Something for you to look back on

I’ll sign up. What’s $40 hey. You got change for $50?

 

[StringyDog]

Ok moving on... Can someone please kindly point out:

Apart from Sam Menegola, What were the lowest odds (most likely to win) for a player to win their team brownlow count but didn't?

Just trying to figure out what range of odds tend to be relatively safe. E.g. Right before brownlow night, the favourites with $1.00 - $1.50 odds very rarely lose.

Adams at about 1.55 and got done by Pendlebury, Rowell got done at 1.15 by Greenwood were the main ones last year, Laird also halved at 1.75, Fyfe also just snuck over line @1.25 with a late vote

 

[Prochard123]

I was also wondering if anyone is interested in teaming up to rewatch all the games and come up with an aggregated vote count? A single person watching 200+ games is probably too labour intensive.

But if we can get 20 people reviewing 10 games each, I think that's very manageable and more accurate (less fatigue).

Anyone interested?