AFL 2021 Brownlow Medal (any results after no posting is automatic card)

[balmainforever]

 

[shepherdodin]

Can someone please explain the team handicap market - just a bit confused by it. Thanks.

Add that number to their final count, who end up on top?

 

[jajawinx]

Add that number to their final count, who end up on top?

The odds look so juicy but seems a lot harder than it looks

 

[Frinkle]

Can someone please explain the team handicap market - just a bit confused by it. Thanks.

example

TAB has

Laird (+0)
Keays (+10.5)
Taylor Walker (+10.5)
Lachlan Sholl (+17.5)

So, say these are the final votes they all receive at the end of the night

Laird 19 votes
Keays 9 votes
Walker 8 votes
Lachlan Sholl 4

Then what's in the brackets (their handicap) is then added to their actual votes to create a new total. Who ever has the highest wins....

in this case would be

Winner
Lachie Sholl - 4 (actual votes) + 17.5 (handicap) = 21.5 votes..

 

[Frinkle]

FYI Here is my count for 2021

TEAMS

Adel

Laird 19
Keays 9
Walker 8

Bris

Llyons 20
Mcluggage 16
Zorko 11
Neale 8

Carlton

Walsh - 25
Mckay - 6
Curnow - 5
Cripps - 4

Coll

DeGoey - 10
Adams - 10
Crisp -7

Ess

Merrett - 25
Parish - 23
Stringer - 11

Freo

Mundy - 16
Brayshaw - 13
Fyfe - 9

Geelong

Guthrie - 19
Danger - 10
Hawkins - 8
Selwood - 8

Gold Coast

Miller - 23
Anderson - 6
Greenwood - 5
Ellis - 3

GWS

Kelly - 17
Hopper - 10
Greene - 10
Taranto - 9


Hawks

Mitchell - 27
Omeara - 9
Wingard - 8

Melb

Oliver - 30
Petracca - 29
Gawn - 13

North Melb

Simpkin - 11
Cunnington - 11

Port

Wines - 32
Boak - 24
Amon - 12

Richmond

Dusty - 13
Reiwoldt - 7
Bolton - 6

STK

Steele - 31
Dunstan - 6
Crouch - 6

Sydney

Parker - 22
Mills - 13
Franklin - 10
Heeney - 9

Western Bulldogs

Bont - 30
Macrae - 22
Smith - 7
Libba - 7
Treloar - 5

West Coast

Sheed - 12
Kelly - 10
Gaff - 9



TOP 5,10,20

Wines - 32
Steele - 31
Bont - 30
Oliver - 30
Petracca - 29


Mitchell - 27
Walsh - 25
Merrett - 25
Parish - 23
Miller - 23
Boak -23

Macrae - 22
Parker - 22
Llyons - 20
Laird - 19
Guthrie - 19
Kelly - 17
Mcluggage -16
Mundy -16

 

[NYRB]

Can someone please explain the team handicap market - just a bit confused by it. Thanks.

To keep it simple it means , the player with theh handicap eg Steven May gets a +27.5 vote head start on a player Like Clayton Oliver. If its a May v Langdon, May would have to make back a 1 vote disadvantage and have to make up that line, to at least equal him or better.


Speaking of overlay margins, reckon some of those are filthy odds from the TAB. I mean 137.23% margins .............was hoping to see around 115-118% margins or thereabouts. I guess if you have confidence in your counts by all means back it....I just dont want to be involved in too many markets like this going ahead.....

 

[NYRB]

another note is with the TAB handicaps, you could get an instance where two or more players tied. Hypothetic example is, assuming Tom McDonald

25

Tom Mcdonald

Age

32

Ht

195cm

Wt

101kg

Pos.

D/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

16.4

4star

K

9.7

4star

HB

6.7

4star

M

5.6

5star

T

1.9

4star

MG

261.8

4star

D

8.0

2star

K

5.0

2star

HB

3.0

2star

M

3.4

3star

T

0.6

1star

MG

135.6

2star

D

13.8

4star

K

6.8

3star

HB

7.0

5star

M

4.4

4star

T

1.4

4star

polled 7 votes and Petracca polled 28 votes, and were the equal leaders, you would be paid half your payout.

 

[EFL Boy]

 

[footyfan35]

Team Votes and Final Top 20 released on one of the Predictors if anybody is interested. Here is the link https://dailysportsbuddy.com/brownlow-predictor-team-votes-2021/

All free as well. Will probably be part of the $39 MROSE package in the coming days lol

 

[NonPhixion]

I have seen a lot of counts with Gaff polling more than I anticipate.
personally don’t think he gets anywhere near 10 and very happy to take U8.5 $1.95 on TS

 

[Sausage Legs]

I have seen a lot of counts with Gaff polling more than I anticipate.
personally don’t think he gets anywhere near 10 and very happy to take U8.5 $1.95 on TS

At your peril

 

[EFL Boy]

I have seen a lot of counts with Gaff polling more than I anticipate.
personally don’t think he gets anywhere near 10 and very happy to take U8.5 $1.95 on TS

The bloke will get as close to 10 votes as he does to contact.

 

[Michael Scarn]

Team Votes and Final Top 20 released on one of the Predictors if anybody is interested. Here is the link https://dailysportsbuddy.com/brownlow-predictor-team-votes-2021/

All free as well. Will probably be part of the $39 MROSE package in the coming days lol

Is that Comic Sans MS on that website?

 

[TheJanuaryMan]

Team Votes and Final Top 20 released on one of the Predictors if anybody is interested. Here is the link https://dailysportsbuddy.com/brownlow-predictor-team-votes-2021/

All free as well. Will probably be part of the $39 MROSE package in the coming days lol

Anyone who does a count and puts it out there deserves plaudits but I cannot see any universe where Lyons has a possible 31 votes coming his way.

 

[Sausage Legs]

Anyone who does a count and puts it out there deserves plaudits but I cannot see any universe where Lyons has a possible 31 votes coming his way.

Have u ever even done a brownlow

 

[Gift]

Gawns brownlow odds going to get smashed tonight

 

[Pinnell]

Gawns brownlow odds going to get smashed tonight

Get on! Ladbrokes are taking heaps of bets right now!

 

[freo_leo29]

I've barely placed any bets on the brownlow this year and have just realise why, TJMs counts have been a massive money maker and baseline to compare against.

Without them I am lost

Hope everyone wins a bunch this year

 

[DCasey91]

Does anyone have vote counts for:

Kosi
Short
Heppell
Hurn
Houli
Houston
Goldstein
Sloane
Swallow

Also has anyone done total team vote counts? cheers!

 

[Leeroy Brown 15]

Does anyone have vote counts for:

Kosi
Short
Heppell
Hurn
Houli
Houston
Goldstein
Sloane
Swallow

Also has anyone done total team vote counts? cheers!

Kosi 0
Short 2
Heppell 1
Hurn 2
Houli 1
Houston 2
Goldstein 1
Sloane 5
Swallow 0

 

[Chew The Stat]

Morning all. Long time admirer of the open discussion in this thread, first time contributor.
A few people shouted out my Brownlow dashboard in here a few weeks back (cheers!) but I unfortunately had to take it down temporarily to do some much needed repairs/upgrades.
Happy to say it's now back online and ready to go! From the dash you should be able to generate rated prices/probabilities for just about any market currently offered (apart from a few of the more complex BYOs...).

Check it out here: https://ashwalls.shinyapps.io/MonteChaRlo/

Enjoy!

 

[burge13]

Morning all. Long time admirer of the open discussion in this thread, first time contributor.
A few people shouted out my Brownlow dashboard in here a few weeks back (cheers!) but I unfortunately had to take it down temporarily to do some much needed repairs/upgrades.
Happy to say it's now back online and ready to go! From the dash you should be able to generate rated prices/probabilities for just about any market currently offered (apart from a few of the more complex BYOs...).

Check it out here: https://ashwalls.shinyapps.io/MonteChaRlo/

Enjoy!

View attachment 1232398

To confirm, this does not cost $40?

 

[Chew The Stat]

To confirm, this does not cost $40?

Can confirm $0! Full credit to the other bloke for trying to sell ice to an eskimo by posting in this thread though.

On a side note - I'm personally a big advocate of educating others where I can rather than simply sharing tips, so if you're interested in the modelling approach behind what you see on the dashboard have a read of this post I wrote at the start of the season:

Monte ChaRlo: Using data to predict the Brownlow Medal

Building a predictive Brownlow model is a lot like signing up for a gym membership. It takes a lot of time and effort to see the results, and if it isn’t working after three weeks you’ll prob…

chewthestat.com

 

[Analysis Paralysis]

Can confirm $0! Full credit to the other bloke for trying to sell ice to an eskimo by posting in this thread though.

On a side note - I'm personally a big advocate of educating others where I can rather than simply sharing tips, so if you're interested in the modelling approach behind what you see on the dashboard have a read of this post I wrote at the start of the season:

Monte ChaRlo: Using data to predict the Brownlow Medal

Building a predictive Brownlow model is a lot like signing up for a gym membership. It takes a lot of time and effort to see the results, and if it isn’t working after three weeks you’ll prob…

chewthestat.com

I'd appreciate it if you didn't educate bookies how to do it better....

 

[dontlimitme]

MROSE frantically updating his package with all this newly "researched" knowledge

 

[Prochard123]

Hi all, to those that have followed the Brownlow for years, which sources tend to be the most accurate?

I personally rate BYB a lot, but it sounds like Betfair has a decent track record to? Anything else?