AFL 2021 Brownlow Medal (any results after no posting is automatic card)

[balmainforever]

 

[NYRB]

Can confirm $0! Full credit to the other bloke for trying to sell ice to an eskimo by posting in this thread though.

On a side note - I'm personally a big advocate of educating others where I can rather than simply sharing tips, so if you're interested in the modelling approach behind what you see on the dashboard have a read on this post I wrote at the start of the season:

Monte ChaRlo: Using data to predict the Brownlow Medal

Building a predictive Brownlow model is a lot like signing up for a gym membership. It takes a lot of time and effort to see the results, and if it isn’t working after three weeks you’ll prob…

chewthestat.com

Mind if I ask how long it took you to using the shiny app via R? my university had it as an option last year but just feared it would take me a bit too long to learn.

Hi all, to those that have followed the Brownlow for years, which sources tend to be the most accurate?

I personally rate BYB a lot, but it sounds like Betfair has a decent track record to? Anything else?

i rate BYB. They predict a lot more '3.0 Weighted vote' matches but this obviously leads to a lesser accuracy with a larger sample size . Think they are roughly around 70% over the last 1.5 years...but they have roughly double the amount of matches that the Betfair predictor uses on an annual basis.


Not sure if this is a good thing or bad thing but , do notice for matches with the two players as stand out, they tend to also use a lot of 2.5 Weighted voted for 2 players.

 

[russ]

If you lob $1 on every possible H2H Multi combination through Sportsbet you're guaranteed atleast $3000 profit, with upwards of $36000 profit.
Only need a spare $900 investment.

How'd you figure that out mate? Very interested - math not my strong point but I get a possible 32768 results from 15 H2H match ups - ie 2 to the power of 15

And how do I place all of those bets at once? Instead of 900 times lol

 

[NonPhixion]

If you lob $1 on every possible H2H Multi combination through Sportsbet you're guaranteed atleast $3000 profit, with upwards of $36000 profit.
Only need a spare $900 investment.

Does this factor in ties though ?

 

[Peterjv]

If you lob $1 on every possible H2H Multi combination through Sportsbet you're guaranteed atleast $3000 profit, with upwards of $36000 profit.
Only need a spare $900 investment.

I don't think this is right. There's 32,768 different combinations you can have with 15 Head-to-Heads.

$1 on the winning combination would net you approximately $11,957 (Average $1.87 odds to the power of 15). This is also assuming no ties where your winnings will get cut in half for every tie.

So you would need a $32,768 investment to only win $11,957 (or less if ties).

If this was a legitimate strategy, then punters would be building 15 line-multi's for sports across a weekend to guarantee profit ... but unfortunately it is not correct.

Would be good to hear how you came up with your calculations though!

 

[demon_fanatic]

Really unsure on wines actually, I watch the games recently and he does not stand out yet has over 30 by games end, think Boak could suprise hugely and be like a 25-23 type split to wines, still much prefer Bont Oliver and Petracca Steele

 

[FootyStar#1]

Really unsure on wines actually, I watch the games recently and he does not stand out yet has over 30 by games end, think Boak could suprise hugely and be like a 25-23 type split to wines, still much prefer Bont Oliver and Petracca Steele

Yep I agree. He just doesn’t have enough of the standout games to give confidence. If he misses out on a few of the 1-2 vote games, he’s in trouble. Too hard to gauge. Also think boak is going to poll well.

 

[Analysis Paralysis]

No NicNat chat this year?

Even just to win West Coast?

70 coaches votes.
5th on Clearances in AFL
14th on Contested Possessions in AFL

Seriously - no chat?

$9 to win WC @ SportsBet.

 

[Gift]

Ive found the sportsbet spy. Hes the guy above

 

[Analysis Paralysis]

Ive found the sportsbet spy. Hes the guy above

I don't know why people aren't jumping at my Touk Miller to poll most votes Brownlow Extra!

 

[NonPhixion]

Anyone else waiting for the Nathan Brown

22

Nathan Brown

Age

35

Ht

196cm

Wt

99kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

8.8

2star

K

3.9

2star

HB

4.9

4star

M

2.7

3star

T

1.8

4star

No current season stats available

D

6.4

2star

K

3.2

2star

HB

3.2

3star

M

1.8

2star

T

2.8

5star

Brownlow multi special

 

[LionsOrDieTrion]

Anyone else waiting for the Nathan Brown Brownlow multi special

I saw his count the other night, wouldn't be the worst result for me if it fell like that.

 

[Analysis Paralysis]

Anyone else waiting for the Nathan Brown Brownlow multi special

I re-watched the 2020 episode a couple of months back.

Your bet is against dumb money - rewatch it to see how dumb it really is.

 

[Crownlow]

SB Brownlow groups up - can't multi

My tips -
Banana Benders - Neale $3
Group A - amon $3.75
Group B - Zorko $8
Wile West- Dom Sheed $3

 

[botswana42]

SB Brownlow groups up - can't multi

My tips -
Banana Benders - Neale $3
Group A - amon $3.75
Group B - Zorko $8
Wile West- Dom Sheed $3

is that to poll most votes? surely neale @ 3.00 is a complete gift? got him a fair few clear of anderson, couple of clear 3V games should help. good tip, should probably be 2.1

 

[demon_fanatic]

is there any universe that Boak somehow doesn't get the 16 votes to gurantee him outright top 20? proven vote getter and I conservatively totalled him at 22 betfair has 24... just want to make sure haha!! was gunna go Hard on Parker but his vote estimation is 18 compared to Boaks 24 on Betfair

 

[Analysis Paralysis]

is there any universe that Boak somehow doesn't get the 16 votes to gurantee him outright top 20? proven vote getter and I conservatively totalled him at 22 betfair has 24... just want to make sure haha!! was gunna go Hard on Parker but his vote estimation is 18 compared to Boaks 24 on Betfair

There's no telescope that can peer through all the dimensions to that universe.

But who knows? I've got some Boak in the stable.

 

[DeliciousBagel0]

is there any universe that Boak somehow doesn't get the 16 votes to gurantee him outright top 20? proven vote getter and I conservatively totalled him at 22 betfair has 24... just want to make sure haha!! was gunna go Hard on Parker but his vote estimation is 18 compared to Boaks 24 on Betfair

Boak top 20 seems to be as safe as you can get for me. The umps have loved him for years, he had another great season. Most counts have him finishing 10-12

 

[Geeves Train]

 

[jimboslice]

One week until this torture is over

 

[Leeroy Brown 15]

One week until this torture is over

Torture? This has been a pretty enjoyable 23 weeks of Brownlow betting. Whoever started early this year and loaded the top 5, 10, 20s as early as April/May or whenever SB first opened them up will be rewarded greatly. Don't think Sportsbet will be doing that again next year and if thats the case it means a lot of posters on here have cleaned up big time.

 

[Analysis Paralysis]

Torture? This has been a pretty enjoyable 23 weeks of Brownlow betting. Whoever started early this year and loaded the top 5, 10, 20s as early as April/May or whenever SB first opened them up will be rewarded greatly. Don't think Sportsbet will be doing that again next year and if thats the case it means a lot of posters on here have cleaned up big time.

Well, torture insofar as "have I won 3mil or 4mil?" Just tell me already!

These pretzels... Are making me THIRSTY!!!

 

[Red Dog Styles]

Well, torture insofar as "have I won 3mil or 4mil?" Just tell me already!

These pretzels... Are making me THIRSTY!!!

Ill have what he's having

On SM-G930F using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Leeroy Brown 15]

Ill have what he's having

On SM-G930F using BigFooty.com mobile app

Ignore him he gets like this when he's trying to simulate more votes for Boak

 

[Analysis Paralysis]

Ignore him he gets like this when he's trying to simulate more votes for Boak

I found some votes for Boak last night. He's gunna win Charlie I tells ya!

 

[Young Gun #6]

Not sure if anyone has seen this or not but there’s team vote handicaps on TAB at the moment.

Have done a fairly thorough analysis and come in with 2 highly recommended tips:

Brandon Parfitt +13.5
(Has had a break out season in the midfield for Geelong and really stood out in a few games he played. Chance for 6-7 votes which would clean this field up on my leaderboard)

Chingkuth Jiath +21.5
(If you blinked and missed this guy at the start of the season I can forgive you. The man has blinding speed and looks primed for around 6 or so votes. So noticeable off of the half back flank. Similar player to late career Jimmy Bartel who actually took this award out one year showing the polling power Jiath will have).